silvertongue said:wilkes said:My understanding of the term 'Bubble' refers to an overvalued commodity. Do you come here, study Gold and Silver and honestly believe that $50 silver was in a Bubble? If so, you had better sell your stack as soon as possible to avoid the next bubble popping!!silvertongue said:Interesting that PMs are touted as security in times of uncertainly, and yet, here we see uncertainty in the comments of those holding PMs.
Yeah, the market will go up and down for all sorts of reasons, not all of them about manipulation actually, and this year's drops stand in stark contrast to last year's gains. I know "bubble" can be a dirty word sometimes, but honestly, we did experience a small one early this year.
But all this "ha-ha, told you so" stuff that goes across the traders/holders trench, it proves nothing. If you can accurately pick the tops and bottoms and trade on it, great. That's what you do. Personally I can think of better commodities to trade if you're into volatility, but to each their own. But that's not for everyone. Some may not hold sufficient ounces to make such dedication worthwhile. If I hold less than say, half a contract's worth of physical, I'm sure that I can earn more by putting the time and effort into other things, rather than trying to trade on that quantity even with the current market noise.
But at the end of the day, we know that no matter whether short term or long term, ultimately it's still a speculation.
EDIT: What we are seeing in these drops (not popped bubbles..) is buying and selling on huge scale. A lot of it is due to manipulation IMO.
I thought at the time I should search for another term rather than "bubble", because of exactly that sort of implication. I'll rephrase... I do feel that silver is undervalued from an historical point of view, and certainly $50 is still quite below what it would be at if it had not taken on an industrial role over the last 70 years. But realistically, it has, and so it's value must also be influenced by the economy surrounding its industrial use. So let me put it another way. The rise to $50 occurred with unsustainable pace. The industries that use the metal could not absorb such a rising material cost so rapidly.
So it begs the question - if silver were replaced and no longer required industrially, would that harm or assist the price of physical?
If silver didn't have an industrial aspect, we would have had like a 700,000,000 oz surplus in supply per year for the last however many years!
The above ground silver supply would be in the tens of billions.