Italian referendum 4/12/16 - Impact on price

G

GoldenEgg

Member
Polls have been favouring "No" (The anti-establishment choice) for months now, No is currently up by around 8-10%.
Similar to Brexit news orgs are saying this could spark a crisis in the Eurozone yet gold price has been to the downside since the day after Trump won.
Are the manipulators pushing gold lower to give it some leeway when it jumps $50 on the referendum "No" result?
4/12/16 is also the day of the Austrian election re-run.I'd say the right wing candidate has a better chance now Trump has won.Very anti-EU.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...-a-systemic-crisis-in-the-eurozone-2016-11-29

How Italy's referendum could spark a 'systemic crisis' in the eurozone
Remember how the Italian banking crisis threatened to bring down the eurozone financial system over the summer?

Fast forward four months and we're at it again. This time it's not the Italian lenders that're the main concern, but rather how they and the wider European political system will be impacted if Italians vote "no" in Sunday's referendum.

While the ballot is on proposed constitutional reforms, it is generally being seen in the country as a vote of confidence in Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, with the risk that a victory for "no" will lead to his resignation and the dissolution of Italy's government.


"Ever since the Brexit vote, we have viewed a potential political crisis in Italy as the top event risk in Europe for 2017. Unlike Brexit, which poses a severe risk to the U.K. but not to the eurozone, Italian problems could theoretically spark a systemic crisis in the eurozone," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, in a note.

Furthermore, "a protracted period of political uncertainty after a 'no' vote could exacerbate the Italian banking issues, unsettle the Italian bond market and weigh on business and consumer confidence," he added.
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Is there ever 'stable' government in Italy? Isn't crisis the norm for them?

I agree though, that the very survival of the EU could be further threatened by this referendum, coming so soon after Brexit.
 
As the paper derivative price on the comex we call the "gold price" has nothing to do with any Italian referendum why do we expect any change ? The paper "nothing to do with gold" price on the COMEX has everything to do with algorythym programmed computers trading backward and forward using vectors like interest rates the : $ ratio and a million other irrelevant issues - many injected by the PPT and other benevolent do-good organisations - all absolutely nothing to do with any metal or store of value. Why would a no hoper Italian "excuse for a prime minister" have anything to do with gold futures contract on the most rigged platform in the universe? Just asking. :D
 
"Are the manipulators pushing gold lower...."

There are no 'manipulators'
Just like there's no unicorns and tooth fairies.
 
Perhaps the word 'manipulation' should be defined a bit clearer.
It is true that certain groups can 'manipulate' price on a very short term basis for quick profits.
They do not, however 'control' the price.
There are no group of peoples so powerful on the planet that they can arbitrarily set the gold price to whatever they want it to be.
D.B. is no different to the Real Estate Agents in Melbourne or Sydney. They can affect a sale but they do not control the trending in price.
 
tolly_67 said:
Perhaps the word 'manipulation' should be defined a bit clearer.
It is true that certain groups can 'manipulate' price on a very short term basis for quick profits.
They do not, however 'control' the price.
There are no group of peoples so powerful on the planet that they can arbitrarily set the gold price to whatever they want it to be.
D.B. is no different to the Real Estate Agents in Melbourne or Sydney. They can affect a sale but they do not control the trending in price.
Click to expand...

Some holes in your theory:

1. Real estate agents in Melbourne do not print houses... The bullion banks print paper gold contracts as many as they want.
2. The banking cartel (Fed) controls absolutely the global supply of cash, the price of cash (interest rates) and the futures markets - there is no greater power on Earth to manipulate all markets (if you can still call them markets)
3. The Melbourne housing market has no paper trade derivative where people can buy and sell houses to people who dont need them or want them ? The house sale comes with the house -unfortunately :D

Look at the London gold pool of the 1960 - forgotten that - the central banks and the Bullion banks manipulated the price of gold for 8 years without the turbo-charging of the derivative markets.

Please don't be so naive. Its no longer a market....
 
I am sorry to say that your understanding of gold contracts can be compared to my understanding of brain surgery.....
No....The Fed does not and cannot control interest rates.......ever. The market will always determine this.
As for the gold pool...which failed....you are talking about something a lot different than boogeymen. This was an attempt by the largest gold holders to control a price...openly. Even this could not stop the market forces. It simply delayed the inevitable.
 
tolly_67 said:
Perhaps the word 'manipulation' should be defined a bit clearer.
It is true that certain groups can 'manipulate' price on a very short term basis for quick profits.
They do not, however 'control' the price.
There are no group of peoples so powerful on the planet that they can arbitrarily set the gold price to whatever they want it to be.
D.B. is no different to the Real Estate Agents in Melbourne or Sydney. They can affect a sale but they do not control the trending in price.
Click to expand...

I wish that everyone else was as sure as you :/
 
It is just human nature.....when the number in a group exceeds one then there will be disagreement on issues. No phantom group can be so single minded to enable such manipulation to be maintained perpetually. Internal friction within a group is enough to ensure its eventual demise. You can apply it to sporting clubs, political parties, family trusts etc.
 
tolly_67 said:
I am sorry to say that your understanding of gold contracts can be compared to my understanding of brain surgery.....
No....The Fed does not and cannot control interest rates.......ever. The market will always determine this.
As for the gold pool...which failed....you are talking about something a lot different than boogeymen. This was an attempt by the largest gold holders to control a price...openly. Even this could not stop the market forces. It simply delayed the inevitable.
Click to expand...

Interestingly I do understand gold contracts quite well and I have studied how the futures contracts on the COMEX work. So as far as brain surgery goes I will leave that to you. The Fed does dictate interest rates that have held recently since 08. It is only now these past months that these are breaking loose of the central banks with the reawakening of the bond vigilantes. The gold pool was a perfect example of how central banks held the gold price at $35 for years in the face of a growing demand for metal. I never said it would last forever -gosh if I did think that why am I here on a gold and silver site. Obviously the market will eventually plant a Rt. cross on the jaw of the Fed and it will be game over. In the meanwhile we continue in these manipulations we call markets until one day it ends. Just like the gold pool.

And by the way you mean in the 1960's when there was no debt they wanted to control the gold price but today when they have far greater control on everything and massive unimaginable debt - they don't want to control metal prices. Seriously you need to think this through. And the ability to control the production and supply of money (cash) worldwide that is not unbelievable power ? or is it not quite the power of a Real Estate Agent :D .
 
It is not the manipulation that is the issue. You simply believe this to be the case because you have been led astray by false prophets. The Harvey Organs et al that you followed so closely were wrong. Dead wrong. They got so caught up in their own misconceptions that they completely failed to see what was going to occur. Their only excuse for being wrong is 'manipulation' when it should have been ' I was completely wrong'. Look back of the last 3 or 4 years...you thought the dollar was doomed, but guess what, it is going to absolutely skyrocket.....you thought gold had bottomed, but guess what, under a $1000 is still on the cards.
 
It is not that manipulation is the issue ... it's the depth of the corruption that keeps the dollar going ...
 
Manipulation is the complete and only issue... for discussion. False prophets etc ? who cares... that is totally irrelevant. :/ Why introduce a new idea. I think you take responsibility for your actions. if you listen to others its you problem That is not the issue we are discussing?
 
Then why contribute to a forum of which the foundation is built on substances that are traded in a completely corrupted manner? It would be like playing in an underground casino run by the Mob whilst, at the same time, declaring to all and sundry that the games are rigged. It makes no sense at all.
Perhaps you need a new hobby.
 
tolly_67 said:
Then why contribute to a forum of which the foundation is built on substances that are traded in a completely corrupted manner? It would be like playing in an underground casino run by the Mob whilst, at the same time, declaring to all and sundry that the games are rigged. It makes no sense at all.
Perhaps you need a new hobby.
Click to expand...

If you believe that the price of gold is being artificially kept low, and if you believe that the manipulation will eventually cease and gold will find a higher price, then why not buy gold now while the price is artificially cheap.

All you have to do is outlive the cartel!
 
It is neither artificially low or artificially cheap....why....because I can go and buy the real McCoy now for the price as of now. It is what it is. We can assume that it will be cheap as a function of possible future prices or we can also deem it expensive should gold drop significantly further.
 
Tolly you need to do some reading - prices of gold approaching the all time inflation adjusted low of 2001-2002

1302_150421inflationadjustedgoldpriceusing1980cpiformula.png
 
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