GOLDPIRATE said:Imo, the Eurozone will begin with a stimulus of money printing once the bond buying does nothing for their economy.
? :/
GOLDPIRATE said:Imo, the Eurozone will begin with a stimulus of money printing once the bond buying does nothing for their economy.
Caput Lupinum said:GOLDPIRATE said:Imo, the Eurozone will begin with a stimulus of money printing once the bond buying does nothing for their economy.
? :/
SilverPete said:We need a wake up call before things get much worse. Our most pressing problem is that the Australian government is now demonstrably in full blown denial and will not listen to any advice on how to prepare the nation and our economy for coming global changes.
Abbott is telling us that "the end of history's greatest resources boom was really just a short term blip", but...
The Chinese gov is pulling back from stimulus spending, infrastructure spending will be trending down, demand for Australian resources is dropping
SovereignBuyerMelbourne said:SilverPete said:We need a wake up call before things get much worse. Our most pressing problem is that the Australian government is now demonstrably in full blown denial and will not listen to any advice on how to prepare the nation and our economy for coming global changes.
Abbott is telling us that "the end of history's greatest resources boom was really just a short term blip", but...
The Chinese gov is pulling back from stimulus spending, infrastructure spending will be trending down, demand for Australian resources is dropping
I think the government as a whole isn't helping, particularly the senate who blocks any attempts to cut government expenditure.
If china's economic growth is slowing, it means both of our major export partners including Japan will be buying less. Or do you think they'll try/be forced to prop up their economies by spending on infrastructure?
Also once Japan begin operating their switched off Fukushima based plants that will slow down demand for things like coal, oil and a LNG.
It doesn't look good though.
What are your plans?
Couldn't find the recent article I read about BHP on Iron ore. I remember it being pessimistic though, however I did find this.
BHP Billiton, the world's biggest mining company by market value, has warned of "flattening" iron ore demand from China, in the most bearish comment yet from any leading miner about the world's largest consumer of the commodity.
Speaking at an industry conference in Perth, Australia, on Tuesday, Ian Ashby, president of BHP's iron ore division, said the company expected growth in Chinese demand for iron ore to slow to single-digits.
construction activity has slowed during the past year as Beijing has tried to cool growth in the property sector, leading many analysts to believe that China's appetite for steel was set to cool.
full article http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0a541586-7256-11e1-9c23-00144feab49a.html#axzz3L6oQAwga
In parallel with a slowdown in demand and price falls to levels that were not predicted by the industry, there has been a very large increase in output from the mines, and a number of new mine projects coming online over the next several years (at least, that's what I read) across the world. And China is also stockpiling at current prices.renovator said:I think the pertinent part is this
" Ian Ashby, president of BHP's iron ore division, said the company expected growth in Chinese demand for iron ore to slow to single-digits."
Key word "growth " am i the only one reading this correctly . ?
Everybody freaking out about nothing ... The demand is still GROWING but just in single digits ....As long as demand is still growing who really cares ..When it starts to DECREASE i would be starting to worry until then you guys need to step away from the panic button. What grows in double digits for ever ? ....nothing lol
Iron ore and the dangers of living by the sword
The scale of the price collapse has been breath-taking. Iron ore has dropped by over 35 percent since the start of the year, a significantly worse performance than any other industrial metal.
But what's really shocking is that the price is now at a level that until recently was collectively deemed impossibly low.
It was only in April that Jos Carlos Martins, executive officer of ferrous and strategy at Vale, the world's largest producer of iron ore, told analysts that "one thing is for sure, the price will not go below $110 on a sustainable basis".
...Well, here we are with the price trading not just below $110 but a lot lower still. And sustainably so.
That tells you that something has gone very wrong with the iron ore narrative. This market is in a place it was not supposed to be.
And while big producers such as Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton are sticking to that narrative, they are now facing the unpredictable consequences of a pricing war they collectively started.
More: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/10/us-iron-ore-home-idUSKCN0IU0X120141110
Why Beijing's Troubles Could Get a Lot Worse
Bank rate cuts and anticorruption campaign are unlikely to stave off woes, says Anne Stevenson-Yang.
...China sought to counter global recession with huge amounts of ill-advised investment in redundant industrial capacity and vanity infrastructure projectsyou know, airports with no commercial flights, highways to nowhere, and stadiums with no teams. The country is now submerged by the tsunami of bad debt that begets further unhealthy credit growth to service this debt.
How bad can the situation be when the Chinese economy grew by 7.3% in the latest quarter?
People are crazy if they believe any government statistics, which, of course, are largely fabricated. In China, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle of physics holds sway, whereby the mere observation of economic numbers changes their behavior. For a time we started to look at numbers like electric-power production and freight traffic to get a line on actual economic growth because no one believed the gross- domestic-product figures. It didn't take long for Beijing to figure this out and start doctoring those numbers, too.
I put much stock in estimates by various economists, including some at the Conference Board, that actual Chinese GDP is probably a third lower than is officially reported. And as for the recent International Monetary Fund report calling China the world's biggest economy on a purchasing-power-parity basis, how silly was that? China is a cheap place to live if one is willing to eat rice, cabbage, and pork, but it's expensive as all get out once you factor in the cost of decent housing, a car, and health care.
I'd be shocked if China is currently growing at a rate above, say, 4%, and any growth at all is coming from financial services, which ultimately depend on sustained growth in the rest of the economy. Think about it: Property sales are in decline, steel production is falling, commercial long-and short-haul vehicle sales are continuing to implode, and much of the growth in GDP is coming from huge rises in inventories across the economy. We track the 400 Chinese consumer companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, and in the third quarter, their gross revenues fell 4% from a year ago. This is hardly a vibrant economy.
How bad do you see things getting?
I hate to wear sackcloth, since in late 2011 I became quite bearish and yet a sharp dose of government stimulus managed to steady the economy. By our calculations, since June the central government directly and indirectly has added more than $400 billion of stimulus and relaxed lending terms for housing purchases. Yet, every spasm of new stimulus seems less and less effective in boosting the economy.
So most likely, China is sinking into a deflationary recession that's increasing in speed and may take some time to run its course. Investors have lost faith in the property market, which alone comprises about 20% of GDP, when taking into account the entire supply chain, from iron-ore production to construction to related financial services and appliance sales. Employment and wage compensation will suffer. Consumption will continue to suffer. There's even an outside possibility that China's economic miracle could end up in a fiery crash landing, if a surge in banking-system loan defaults outruns government regulators' attempt to contain such a credit crisis and restore financial confidence.
...In my opinion, the press is somewhat guilty of willing suspension of disbelief on developments in China. Xi's agenda of Confucian [moral] purification has nothing to do with opening up the economy or social reform. He wants to bolster the power of the Communist Party and tamp down the cynicism about the system that is increasing in China. This explains in large part his bellicosity in the South China Sea, quashing of dissent on the Internet and elsewhere, and heavy-handed attacks on non-Han populations like the Uighurs. He openly disdains Western democratic values.
Of the same piece is China's attacks on foreign companies and brands on the grounds of claimed antimonopoly practices, discriminatory pricing, corruption, and inadequate product quality. Chinese state-owned companies and firms in which party members are invested, however, are largely exempt from such scrutiny. In a state economy like China's, the playing field is increasingly tilted so ultimate gains go to Chinese companies.
As for Xi's much-ballyhooed anticorruption campaign inside China, it offends me that international media depict it as a good-governance effort. What's really going on is an old-style party purge reminiscent of the 1950s and 1960s with quota-driven arrests, summary trials, mysterious disappearances, and suicides, which has already entrapped, by our calculations, 100,000 party operatives and others. The intent is not moral purification by the Xi administration but instead the elimination of political enemies and other claimants to the economy's spoils.
More: http://online.barrons.com/articles/...roubles-and-chinas-could-get-worse-1417846773
The Murray report overview
David Murray's Financial System Inquiry has called for the nation's banks to become "unquestionably strong" to prevent the cost of a financial crisis that could be as large as $2.4 trillion.
The FSI which was released today in Sydney took aim at the banks claims that they were among the safest in the world calling on the banks to lift their capital rations to be among the safest quartile of banks in the world. Murray also called on the big banks to capital as a way to increase competition the system.
In a comprehensive report the Murray led inquiry also made recommendations for the nation's $1.8 trillion superannuation system to deliver better outcomes, for the powers of the regulators to be increased.
Here is a key summary the inquiry recommendations.
Bank Capital and Risk-Weights
The FSI called for bank capital levels to be raised amid evidence that the banks were not the quartile of international banks when it came to high capital levels.
An increase in capital levels would make the banks safer on a standalone basis and reduce the "implicit government guarantee" and reduces the recourse to taxpayer funds.
The Murray report recommended that the banks should target being in the top quartile of international banks as far as capital levels are concerned. This would suggest on latest numbers that the banks
The FSI said that the top quartile level was increasing as other banks "caught up" and on latest levels the average 9.1 per cent capital levels of the Australian banks was below the median of 10.5 per cent and below the 12.2 per cent required to get into the top quartile.
The FSI said any increases in capital should take the form of common equity capital.
The FSI said the cost to the economy of increasing capital ratios was small for the overall economy relying on RBA numbers.
Capital and Competition
The FSI called on mortgage risk weights to be narrowed between the major banks and their smaller competitors by raising the average internal risk weights required to be held by the major banks.
This would address some of the "competitive distortion" and the costs to making the system more competitively neutral were modest.
The FSI proposed that the major banks which hold less capital because of their use of internal risk weighted models should increase their average risk weight to between 25 to 30 per cent. The required quantum would be a one percentage point increase in major bank's common equity Tier I levels from currency levels.
The FSI said this would increase funding costs to the banks that would be born by shareholders and consumers.
Leverage Ratios
Leverage ratios aim to make up for any failings in the models used by banks and regulators to calculate capital by using a simply dollar for dollar approach.
The FSI claimed that the major banks current leverage ratio of 4 to 4.5 per cent would mean that a GFC style shock would be "sufficient to render the banks insolvent".
The FSI said the banks should target a minimum leverage ratio of between 3 and 5 per cent. A leverage ratio would provide a "backstop" againt the risks of using models to determine capital levels.
Bail-In Bonds
The FSI proposed the adoptions of "bail-in" capital methods to align with international standards that would prevent taxpayers being called on to bail-out the banks if there was a financial crisis. It said most of these instruments already existed under the Basel framework but left open the possibility of new instruments that could sit above Tier I and Tier II capital but below senior debt.
Credit Ratings
The FSI was unsure whether such measures would impact the credit ratings of the big four banks saying that the "net effect was unclear'
A loss-absorbing framework would increase the buffer afforded to senior debt holders which the credit rating is based upon which should strengthen the rating.
However since the major banks benefit from a two-notch upgrade on the basis of expected government report and suggestions that this could be weakened could actually result in a potential downgrade.
Superannuation funds
The FSI recommended superannuation funds be forced to tender for the right to manage hundreds of billions of dollars in default savings.
Self-managed superannuation funds should be banned from borrowing to buy assets such as property and shares.
Super fund boards should be be forced to appoint a majority of independent directors.
The FSI recommended Trustees subject to the same penalties for misconduct as directors of managed investment schemes.
The objectives should be enshrined in legislation.
The FSI recommended super fund trustees to pre-select a comprehensive income product for members' retirement.
Regulation
The FSI recommended new board the financial Regulator Assessment Board to the assess the performance of regulators.
ASIC and APRA would be given a three year funding model providing them with more autonomy.
The FSI took aim at large corporations liquidators and financial institutions recommended they should pay more as their current fees don't cover the cost of regulation. The state of competition in the financial sector should be reviewed every three years, it said.
Consumer protection
The FSI recommended the law should be changed to introduce a principles based product design and distribution obligation" to boost consumer confidence and trust.
Tax
The FSI one again identified "distortions" the tax system that it claimed distorted the allocation of funding and risk in the economy. Such taxes should be looked at by the government and the current White paper process.
They include differentiated tax treatments on savings such as deposits and fixed income investments, negative gearing and capital gains tax, franking and interest withholding tax.
Wealth and financial advice
The Federal Government needs to raise the minimum education standards for financial advisers. This includes requiring planners to hold relevant tertiary degrees and prove their competence in specialist areas such as superannuation.
The inquiry also called for the corporate regulator to be equipped with new intervention powers, including product banning and distribution restrictions. It asked the government to change the law governing expensive life insurance commissions, recommending lucrative upfront commissions to not exceed ongoing commissions.
General insurance
Consumers should be given better and more transparent guidance when it comes to replacing the value of their home and contents in the event of a claim. If progress was not made to improve the guidance, the government should consider introducing new laws to provide this information to consumers when they renew or buy a new policy.
Technology:
The FSI recommended setting up a permanent "innovation collaboration" committee with members from the public and private sector tasked with making sure policy and regulation keeps up with technological change. This woould include ASIC, APRA, RBA and ATO.
Murray says the government should "promptly" allow online crowdfunding platforms to make public offers of simple securities such as shares and non-convertible debt. Said regulation of both equity and debt crowdfunding should be encouraged with "graduated" regulation based on existing securities law.
Digital identity: implement a federated digital identity strategy rather than a single form of online ID, as suggested in the interim report. This would involve the government setting up a new framework under which private and public sectors compete to supply digital identities to consumers and businesses.
Payments
The Reserve Bank was asked to:
Cap card fees paid by business to issue cards to consumers
Ban on merchants surcharging for debit cards
Set up different rules for low cost, medium cost and high cost cards
RBA to set cap on surcharges for Visa MasterCard
High cost cards like Amex and Diners get to surcharge, but only at reasonable cost.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank...irys-key-recommendations-20141207-121w56.html
Financial analysts forecast 2015 to be a volatile year economically, followed by rapid growth in Europe and the United States in 2016. However, bets are off for China. A Chinese medium-to-hard landing cannot be ruled out. Any decline in Chinese growth from 7.5 per cent to 6.8 or 5 per cent would result in Australian unemployment reaching as high as 10 per cent, investment properties dropping 25 per cent, the dollar slashed to $US0.80 (causing rising inflation due to more expensive imports), and the Reserve Bank cash rate falling to near zero levels as in the EU and Japan. Abbott's obsession with the surplus would be blown apart and, combined with a decline in consumer confidence, would spell electoral disaster. It is foolish enough that Abbott has already antagonised his formerly strong electoral base among the over sixties. A low or zero cash rate would anger self-funded retirees, whose investment income would seriously decline.
Similarly, the Hockey strategy of delivering a future budget surplus rests on tax revenues flowing due to projected growth rates. Two crucial factors will undermine this optimistic scenario. Any increase in unemployment or household savings (because people fear becoming unemployed) will reduce tax collections. Discretionary consumption would decline, thus alarming Abbott's allies in exposed sectors, especially small businesses in retailing, property, tourism, hospitality and personal services. Secondly, as Steve Keen points out, regular budget surpluses based on expenditure cutbacks reduce public debt but force up household and business private debt. Assuming there is no recession to upset Hockey's forecasts, Australia's private debt would balloon from 145 per cent in 2013 to 250 per cent of GDP by 2025. So much for the Abbott mantra of reducing debt!
Perhaps the most revealing aspect of the Abbott policy strategy is the myopic and narrow agenda promoted by the Coalition's business allies. Reading the pre-budget submissions and the submissions to the Financial System Review is an illuminating testament to narrow selfish interests combined with contempt for broader social and environmental needs. Clear winners in terms of policies adopted in the Hockey budget were the Business Council of Australia (BCA), the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) and the Minerals Council of Australia. Far less successful was the Australian Industry Group (AIG), which was the only major lobby to call for education and training, R & D and support for renewable energy and cuts to carbon emissions. Pursuing the World Economic Forum's 'neoliberalism with a human face', the AIG's base is the manufacturing sector, which is distinctly neglected by Abbott. Conversely, the ACCI, representing small and medium businesses in the service sector, pursues a hard right-wing agenda like the Institute for Public Affairs. It opposes a range of social-welfare policies and, for purely ideological reasons, other small businesses operating in the renewable-energy sector.
Overall, business lobbies were able to secure protection of fossil-fuel subsidies and tax policies especially favouring the finance sector. This was done by leaving superannuation benefits for high-income people secure for at least another five years, guaranteeing the continuation of negative gearing (95 per cent of credit growth since the decline in mining investment has now gone to the property sector). On the Australian Stock Exchange, financials now make up a massive 38.7 per cent of the top 200 stocks, a far higher proportion than financial stocks in the United States. Any future government that threatens this dominance could suffer electorally, as bank stocks play a prominent role in super-fund and personal-investor holdings.
1. Capitalism and democracy are becoming increasingly incompatible and business wants to completely free itself from democratic regulation;
2. International investors in bonds and currencies, or those industries primarily geared to exports rather than domestic consumption (e.g. the resources sector), have little vested interest in maintaining decent social welfare, health and public services;
3. In those domestic sectors of the market where competitive pressures are greatest, an increasing percentage of profits and market viability depends on favourable government policies such as reduced taxation, reduced regulation over labour costs, minimal consumer protection and fewer restrictions over services and the marketing of new financial products;
4. In contrast to weak resistance in Anglo-American countries, European and Latin American countries have witnessed an escalation of desperate forms of public resistance to austerity measures (riots, occupations, torching of luxury cars and homes of the rich, smashing expensive shops and hijacking food trucks), thus placing governments on notice that there is a limit to their toleration of austerity (is this the future that awaits Australia?)
Iron ore hit by historic collapse
Iron ore has endured one of its worst sessions on record, with a fresh 11 per cent plunge taking its price to a 10-year low.
At the end of the latest session, benchmark iron ore for immediate delivery to the port of Tianjin in China was trading at $US44.10 a tonne, down 11.3 per cent from its prior close of $US49.70 a tonne.
Over the past five sessions unprecedented losses of 5.3, 3, 3.9, 4.4 and 11.3 per cent have been recorded, leading it down 25 per cent from $US58.90 a tonne through this period.
The current price is a record low since The Steel Index began releasing its data in 2008 and the lowest mark seen since 2005, when miners used to set yearly benchmark contracts with Chinese steelmakers.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...istoric-collapse/story-e6frg9df-1227434534151
JulieW said:This is a very interesting article on the failure of Australian governments and the future. The relevant economic predictions posted below:
http://arena.org.au/abbottville-by-boris-frankel/
mmm....shiney! said:JulieW said:This is a very interesting article on the failure of Australian governments and the future. The relevant economic predictions posted below:
http://arena.org.au/abbottville-by-boris-frankel/
That article is atrocious.
The cure for our ills, as suggested by the author, is to increase the government's revenue and presence. When will the Left understand that their vaunted socialist ideals will never work out. Marx was an aberration, his philosophy that humanity would be better served by moving on from capitalism (which he acknowledges as having improved the lot of man) toward a State based economy operating with a social agenda will not work and is a threat to liberty.
-j-p-shmorgan said:Sorry, but socialism doesn't threaten liberty.
-j-p-shmorgan said:Please enlighten me: 99% of new income goes to the top 1%.
Explain how this is beneficial to the economy in ANY way...
-j-p-shmorgan said:These corrupt bankers, and billionaires, and GREED will be the true downfall of the USA.
The reason for recession?? Greed. Plain and simple.
-j-p-shmorgan said:I'm all for capitalism. That's part of what makes America so great.
However, when the money comes at the people's expense...it's time to rethink things.
-j-p-shmorgan said:Tax the shit out of the rich for all I care. They can afford it.
-j-p-shmorgan said:The middle class is shrinking while the rich accumulate more & more wealth.
Meanwhile, our society suffers. It's not moral, right, or fair.
Vote for Bernie Sanders in 2016...or God Bless America.
JulieW said:Shiney I'd accept a lot more of your arguments if there was some sense of "noblesse oblige" in society, but greed and selfishness render many of your arguments moot in the real world. The industrial revolution and WW1 ended all that.