Some thoughts I have on it for anyone interested.
The simulation argument is basically
at least one of the following propositions is true:
(1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a "posthuman" stage;
(2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof);
(3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. It follows that the belief that there is a significant chance that we will one day become posthumans who run ancestor-simulations is false, unless we are currently living in a simulation
2 seems extremely unlikely to me. Though not impossible. Maybe we evolve beyond those kinds of needs...
If 3 is true, then the chances of us being at the bottom level, ie, the real physical universe are much smaller than 1% and therefore essentially negligible. After all, the vast majority of beings would be simulated and only a tiny minority not.
1 is really interesting. It seems likely at this point that we will reach a posthuman stage, but then why haven't any other civilizations done so before us? There is also the
doomsday argument, which based on statitistical analysis basically says we are in the final days of the human race. That the vast majority of human history has already passed. Which kind of dovetails with the idea of a
great filter which prevents civilizations from going much beyond their home planet.
The author has a lot of other thought-provoking stuff here
http://www.nickbostrom.com/