Jobs and Growth... And a Few Hard Numbers
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Conclusions
During election campaigns, competing politicians tend to exaggerate the potential impact their policies (and their opponents') are likely to have on the national economy.
In reality, Australia's economy is dependent more on the decisions of private actors (including businesses, consumers, and foreign customers) than on government. It would be folly to ascribe full credit for good economic times to the government that happened to be in power during those years and by the same token, to blame a government for negative economic events which were clearly beyond its control. (The economic fallout in Australia from the GFC is an obvious example of that latter form of misattribution.)
Politicians on all sides, therefore, should approach economic performance indicators with caution and humility. Government policies clearly have the capacity to in influence the broader economic trajectory, for better or worse. But those effects take time, and are muted or even overwhelmed by other developments.
In the context of the current election, the present government's claims to superior "economic management," rooted in the alignment of its policies with the preferences of the business community and high-income households, must be considered with particular skepticism. By most of the twelve indicators presented here, national economic performance has clearly deteriorated during its tenure. Again, this deterioration cannot be attributed solely to the actions of the government itself. But it is still far-fetched for the present government to claim "credit" for an economic record that, by concrete statistical measures, is quite poor.
Looking past the election, there are numerous indicators that Australia's economic performance is likely to get worse, not better, in the absence of strong countervailing measures. Signi cant risk factors in the economic outlook include:
See PDF:
http://www.tai.org.au/sites/defualt/files/Jobs and Growth And a Few Hard Numbers.pdf
