Is Silver screwed?

[bsylvest]

At this stage, I see no other option than to sell as soon as I can break even, if such an oppurtunity presents itself.

What is your break even price ill buy it all off you if its reasonable. Why hold bullion in the first place if you believe a word you wrote?

I heard Schiff et al explaining why it was a good idea, so I bought some mid twenties, and it rose sharply shortly after, so I (extremely foolishly) bought more ~$38-39, so I *really* don't want to sell below ~$36, and on net balance I would still be taking a loss

I bought it because at the time the case sounded solid, and I got a huge head given that I came in just before things rose.

I still think there is going to be an economic collapse, I just don't think silver's going to survive it.

And call me "weak" or what have you, but with what I've seen in the past week, I can't sleep at night. Making matters worse, when I ask silver 'bulls', they don't really adress my points but just try and act 'tough', and talk about being 'strong' and 'beleiving', like it was some sort of religion.

 

[Au.Ag.Mzch]

If you don't mind me asking, have you used borrowed money to purchase your silver? Or does silver make up an uncomfortable % of your overall wealth/capital?

 

[bsylvest]

definitely not leveraged (thank god)


but yes, I got caught up in the craze and have got way too much into this

I won't be totally f****d if there is a major crash...but still got too much in

 

[Guest]

At this stage, I see no other option than to sell as soon as I can break even, if such an oppurtunity presents itself.

What is your break even price ill buy it all off you if its reasonable. Why hold bullion in the first place if you believe a word you wrote?

I heard Schiff et al explaining why it was a good idea, so I bought some mid twenties, and it rose sharply shortly after, so I (extremely foolishly) bought more ~$38-39, so I *really* don't want to sell below ~$36, and on net balance I would still be taking a loss

I bought it because at the time the case sounded solid, and I got a huge head given that I came in just before things rose.

I still think there is going to be an economic collapse, I just don't think silver's going to survive it.

And call me "weak" or what have you, but with what I've seen in the past week, I can't sleep at night. Making matters worse, when I ask silver 'bulls', they don't really adress my points but just try and act 'tough', and talk about being 'strong' and 'beleiving', like it was some sort of religion.

Sorry mate, I'm not understanding your point here.

I explained the fundamentals on the situation according to supply and demand.

The only reason why silver is dropping is because of direct paper market manipulation, but physical stock is running out.

That's simple supply and demand reasoning and logic which forms a fairly solid foundation of reasoning why future silver prices will rise.

That said, you have to remember that silver has both a commodity and monetary vector and both can impact the price on silver depending on which vector is driving demand for.

If you believe you were foolish to buy silver at $38/39 then wait until you break even and sell out and be content or use the GSR ratio to trade into gold right now if you prefer.

It's not a question of talking 'tough' or having blind faith in the metals market, but having an appreciation and true understanding of the underlying fundamentals on why you stack in the first place.


I will say again that if you are not comfortable with your position, you're far better off selling than staying.

But know that you're not alone in your ideals here mate. There's a lot of recent stackers who came to the market on the back of the sharp rise in the last 6 months who are now disillusioned with what prices are doing right now.

As I've said here a number of times, the silver market is the most heavily manipulated commodities market in the world today.

So it pays to go into it with your eyes open and a long term strategy in mind.

Avoid leverage if you can and entertain the notion of cost average stacking as a strategy.

I was a buyer under $15 and I was a buyer at $47 and will be a buyer at $100.

But my understanding of the market fundamentals and ideology of Silver and Gold are probably different to yours, so I have the confidence to make that choice.

So if you have specific points you'd like address, lay them out clearly and we can address them directly.

 

[hem9]

At this stage, I see no other option than to sell as soon as I can break even, if such an oppurtunity presents itself.

What is your break even price ill buy it all off you if its reasonable. Why hold bullion in the first place if you believe a word you wrote?

I heard Schiff et al explaining why it was a good idea, so I bought some mid twenties, and it rose sharply shortly after, so I (extremely foolishly) bought more ~$38-39, so I *really* don't want to sell below ~$36, and on net balance I would still be taking a loss

I bought it because at the time the case sounded solid, and I got a huge head given that I came in just before things rose.

I still think there is going to be an economic collapse, I just don't think silver's going to survive it.

And call me "weak" or what have you, but with what I've seen in the past week, I can't sleep at night. Making matters worse, when I ask silver 'bulls', they don't really adress my points but just try and act 'tough', and talk about being 'strong' and 'beleiving', like it was some sort of religion.

Then you have your answer - sell to a point where you feel comfortable even if you lose some money. In my case, silver is only part of my portfolio and truth be told I am more gold heavy. I also think there will be a collapse, and if there is assets will fall but the question you should ask yourself is where would it fall less, as traditionally cash is the safest investment but w the money printing it has obviously become riskier. Only you can answer how to fix your portfolio. If you want to feel safe and secure w your investment you need to do the hard yards and do your own research.

 

[bsylvest]

Okay main point:

In the event of an economic collapse, do you really think people will buy silver?

Silver got smashed during the GFC, and so people think its going to get smashed again, and so self-fufilling prophecy and all that, silver will get smashed.

I seriously cannot past this.

 

[Guest]

definitely not leveraged (thank god)


but yes, I got caught up in the craze and have got way too much into this

I won't be totally f****d if there is a major crash...but still got too much in

There will be a major crash , Europe is heading for recession next year followed by the U.S shortly after even if they avert the current problems . There is no Silver lining for the world economy, if you are worried about your in price buy some more on the next dip and even out your price average .

The fundamentals are still the same as the first day you bought, nothing has changed except that we are closer to an economic meltdown of major proportions, if you need some cheering up go check out the prices on e-bay

 

[TheBullionBoss]

At this stage, I see no other option than to sell as soon as I can break even, if such an oppurtunity presents itself.

What is your break even price ill buy it all off you if its reasonable. Why hold bullion in the first place if you believe a word you wrote?

I heard Schiff et al explaining why it was a good idea, so I bought some mid twenties, and it rose sharply shortly after, so I (extremely foolishly) bought more ~$38-39, so I *really* don't want to sell below ~$36, and on net balance I would still be taking a loss

I bought it because at the time the case sounded solid, and I got a huge head given that I came in just before things rose.

I still think there is going to be an economic collapse, I just don't think silver's going to survive it.

And call me "weak" or what have you, but with what I've seen in the past week, I can't sleep at night. Making matters worse, when I ask silver 'bulls', they don't really adress my points but just try and act 'tough', and talk about being 'strong' and 'beleiving', like it was some sort of religion.

Hmm ill be back gunna read this again think I missed your point unless you forgot to put one in

 

[hem9]

Okay main point:

In the event of an economic collapse, do you really think people will buy silver?

Silver got smashed during the GFC, and so people think its going to get smashed again, and so self-fufilling prophecy and all that, silver will get smashed.

I seriously cannot past this.

Understand this in a collapse - EVERYTHING WILL GET SMASHED (maybe not so much gold) and traditional safe havens don't work as cash is getting printed out of existence. Ask yourself what other asset can you get into besides metals that can offer you the best store of value in a collapse, if you can answer that then invest in that answer.

 

[bsylvest]

If there is a crash, why won't it be like the GFC, with mass liquidations casuing a massive USD rally?

 

[kek]

o

It almost seems to be that a large number of "stackers" act almost as though their sheer enthusiasm and determination will somehow manifest higher silver prices, which is extremely disheartening as someone with a moderate silver position.

So, if you're NOT one of those people who seemingly thinks that if they believe hard enough, silver will rise, could you answer me this: How does silver have a future?

Most PM bugs see economic collapse(s) in the semi-near future, and I'm inclined to agree. However, how can you possibly get around the fact that silver got hammered in the GFC, and got hammered over the past seven days as severe worry hit the markets.

Isn't this *extremely* bearish? When there really is a big collapse, why would this suddenly be different to previous times? Why won't it get hammered even more than before?

I really don't see how so many of you can be so overwhelmingly confident in higher future silver prices.

At this stage, I see no other option than to sell as soon as I can break even, if such an oppurtunity presents itself.

You've come to the wrong place to find an impartial veiw. haha

Generally most silver bugs will tell you to buy regardless of whether silver is going up or down. Perfect example is Max Keiser. Which in my opinion is completely ill advised.
When silver was running up to $50 he was shouting it from the rooftops week after week. Crash in May, nothing, and the most recent crash barely get's a mention.
Same with some of the silver bloggers I used to follow, it's as if it's the unmentionable.

If or when there is some kind of financial collapse the silver price will most likely get crushed in the short term. Yes the long term outlook and fundamentals are strong, but it really depends on your investment time horizon. If you're in it to make a quick buck you're playing a risky game.

Everyone here will be different, some will be 100% all in on silver, some people balanced, some people may only have a small percentage invested in silver.
Your investment portfolio should be weighted accordingly to your own risk aversion.

 

[systematic]

If there is a crash, why won't it be like the GFC, with mass liquidations casuing a massive USD rally?

it seems that the volatility is what is bothering you - the long term prospects for silver are said to be sound and if you believe that also to be true - that is the goal to be aiming for

 

[Midnight Man]

I think I agree with bsylvest on this. Just about everyone on this forum agrees that SHTF is not far off. Any just about everyone agrees that when SHTF then silver will plummet but because the fundamentals are good then in the long run it will be great to hold onto silver.

BUT - if everyone is so convinced that SHTF = lower silver prices, then why not wait until then to buy all your silver. I know you can't prefict the bottom but when SHTF we'll all know about it and then would be the time to buy. Seems like a lot of people (myself included) are saying that because it will be high eventually it is ok to buy high now rather than cheaper tomorrow. A bit like buying a house for $500k this year instead of $400k next year because in 10 years time it should be worth $1 mill.....in my mind you'd still have paid $100k too much for that (hypothetical) house

The problem with your proposition is that you suppose that, when SHTF and *IF* the price plummets, you will be able to obtain enough physical silver to satisfy your needs in exchange for fiat currency.

I will bet that you will not.

I'm no expert here, but I think you will find that the transition from "business as usual" to SHTF will take **HOURS** if that. And, if my reading of articles and news is correct, it will be precipitated by a country defaulting or a major bank closing the doors (overseas most likely in EU or US).

Once the "end domino" is knocked over, the rest of the ponzi driven house of cards will come tumbling down like the Big Bad Wolf just blew into town.

At that point in time, irrespective of the price of silver, if I held any (and I do), the only way you're getting your grubby paws on it is prising it from my dead ones.

Hence, considering that a SHTF stacker considers fiat to have a very limited lifespan as we know it, it almost doesn't matter what price you buy at. Sure, I'm shooting powder at lower prices now, I'd be a fool not to be. But if it were $40 an ounce, I'd still be buying.

When SHTF, we will all look back at even peak prices and wish we'd bought more.

Okay main point: In the event of an economic collapse, do you really think people will buy silver?

If all the cards fall, that is to say, the international monetary systems go to the dogs, I think people will be VERY desperate to buy gold AND silver, yes. They will want to do this as both of these metals, above all others, have a historical tradition of being real money, and have been for over 5000 years. Whether they are ABLE to buy gold and silver AFTER the SHTF is another question entirely - there may be a small amount for sale, but you can bet your shoes, and tomorrow night's dinner on the fact that you will NOT buy it at spot + small premium. You will consider yourself LUCKY to be buying it at spot x 2 or more.

If there is a crash, why won't it be like the GFC, with mass liquidations casuing a massive USD rally?

As mentioned, if the international monetary system collapses (and it must given the debt problems, sovereign default, banking system collapse and eventual hyperinflation), what USD are you talking about? The reality is simple - there won't BE a USD to rally - it will have been printed out of existence. Refer Bubbles Bernanke et al in helicopters etc.

 

[jpanggy]

If there is a crash, why won't it be like the GFC, with mass liquidations casuing a massive USD rally?

If a crash were to happen within 6 months of this post, I am quite certain everything will be hit hard except for usd and chy (assuming china doesnt release bad news).

Like it or not, USD and Tbond is what everyone runs to in case of financial shtf.

Silver and Gold (I have both) will die, so will RE, so will stocks. During those times, cash will be king.

Some will argue that hyperinflation will happen, unfortunately at this point, deleveraging and deflation is overpowering inflation and scaring the crap of all govts and investors.

 

[Trichter]

If there is a crash, why won't it be like the GFC, with mass liquidations casuing a massive USD rally?

Ultimately, there will be a loss of confidence in the USD. When that happens having a combination of PMs and local currency will feel pretty good. PMs may well fall, just significantly less than other asset classes.

 

[BBQ]

At this stage, I see no other option than to sell as soon as I can break even, if such an oppurtunity presents itself.

Silver has caused me heart spasms too, but all the top gurus are saying it's one of the best ways to preserve your wealth. I tend to believe them, but it's not for everyone when you see those prices fluctuate.

Still, I feel safer with silver than saving in cash, and it's a great feeling to know the banks are not sitting on my wealth.

 

[hem9]

If there is a crash, why won't it be like the GFC, with mass liquidations casuing a massive USD rally?

Because unlike GFC1 - it would take way more money printing to achieve some sort of stimulus and make no doubts the politicians will be printing like crazy in the vain hope flooding the world w "money" will stop any recession/depression.

 

[Guest]

Okay main point:

In the event of an economic collapse, do you really think people will buy silver?

Silver got smashed during the GFC, and so people think its going to get smashed again, and so self-fufilling prophecy and all that, silver will get smashed.

I seriously cannot past this.

There's a difference between 'the people' buying silver and the paper market manipulators pushing spot through the floor.

You are confusing demand for physical with paper market manipulation figures.

Don't assume that because prices are being 'hammered down' that demand will go down with it.

That's not the case.

Example :

The financial crisis of 2008 resulted in a surge of Silver Eagle sales as worries intensified over the integrity of paper money and the soundness of the financial system. During 2008 Silver Eagle sales soared to 19,583,500 coins which was a record high. In 2009, sales continued to explode reaching 28,766,500 coins and 2010 was another year of record sales at 34,662,500.

Year to date sales of the Silver Eagle bullion coins during 2011 has now reached 25,530,000. Based on average monthly sales during 2011, sales for the entire year could easily reach 42 million coins, up 20% over last year.

source : http://goldandsilverblog.com/us-mint-silver-eagle-bullion-sales-on-pace-for-record-high-0292/

When I said Silver has two primary vectors being commodity and monetary, it means the dual nature of the metal has value in both good and bad economic environments.

If the global markets are booming, the commodity vector of silver drives the price up.

If the markets are tanking, the monetary vector takes over.

This is not to be confused with this current heavy 'correction' in the market right now which is not related to the nature of silver itself, but rather heavy market manipulation by those who would see the monetary vector of silver be castrated before economic conditions abroad that would undermine the fiat system (ie tanking Euro) sends a signal to potential investors that silver is a 'safe haven'

Your jitters about your investment is the exact purpose and intent of the spot knockdown.


But when it's all said and done you still must make your financial and investment decisions based on your own reasoning and logic and not follow the herd.

It's your wealth after all.

 

[jpanggy]

If there is a crash, why won't it be like the GFC, with mass liquidations casuing a massive USD rally?

Because unlike GFC1 - it would take way more money printing to achieve some sort of stimulus and make no doubts the politicians will be printing like crazy in the vain hope flooding the world w "money" will stop any recession/depression.

The printing was designed to combat deflation, which sort of worked, the cost of that of course is more debt and inflation and eventually more painful implosion.

The first thing that a crash will result in is depressed asset prices. The recovery stage is the interesting one. After GFC1, gold and silver shot up during recovery.

I don't know about this round.

I need to also add that the following shtf scenario is unlikely:

Anarchy, collapse of society, all man for themselves. Is quite unlikely to happen in Australia, I am confident because Indonesia and India has really crap living standard and they don't implode in crisis times, they might riot but that's about it. If Australia riots, the citizens simply does not know life worse than Australian life.

 

[systematic]

over the millenia gold and silver have become deeply embedded in the human psyche as being of high value so you may as well own some of that .... after all .... it is ... "tradition" ....