Is Silver screwed?

[BBQ]

If we compare with last year this time, last year the price started to climb like nuts around this time.

Supposedly more demand at this time. We'll see what happens. I have only been watching the price for a year now.

 

[Philski]

No its not, some facts,
welcome to earth 2011. 1 billion oz of new silver a year global output, the highest throughput in its history, And, the fastest silver mine depletion in history. Silver is running out after millennia of constant mining. It is also running out at the fastest rate in its history, thanks to improved flotation, milling and improvements in haulage etc. In perspective, Cannington (BHP) the worlds largest silver producer - 6% of global output, has a proved 18mil tons (probable 31 mil tons) ore reserve and is being extracted at 3mil tons per annum. so ten years left to run min. this is a new mine and its half gone. They do not go on forever. And we are lucky enough to be at, or near the end of it.

7 billion people on the planet - Oct 2011
4.5 grams of silver each, not a day or a week, but a year. Each year industrial demand out strips supply thus higher prices, we started this shortage to market (cant keep up) way back in 2005, have a look at silver prices way back then. Will it go to $4 -$5 an oz and sit there for decades like from 1974-1990? not a hope, it cost more to produce today than that. And if the mine goes broke, they stop production completely.

in 50 years.. there will be no more Cannington or anything quite like it on the planet and even more people looking for silver. bit like your bananas getting hit in a cyclone, if the market wants / needs them, and there isnt many, the price goes up. unfortunately, silver does not grow on trees

 

[Guest]

Once you get over your noob freakout you will be fine. I went through the same soul searching not long ago and came throuh the other side stronger than ever

This is what I'm talking about. You're not explainign anything, you're only confident because you convinced yourself to be.

Ok mate~Have you been hammered into conformity yet?
I'm going to play Devils advocate and step over the net and play doubles.

I guess you can't eat Silver, nor will it be easily converted into Cash should we face a Liquidity crisis.
Its ok holding Silver for the long term as i agree with all the long term Monetary commentary and Supply facts.
Lots of SS observations are tip topbut in the short term it could be quite useless paying bills,buying food,buying opportunities presented.
Silver has to be converted first~and converting at these rates can easily result in a net Fiat loss.
Holding Fiat at the moment is also a Damm good idea..prehaps better than 'Silver'?.Captain Shields up?
If people take an emotional financial position sometimes they will defend that to the deathbsylvest take it all with a grain of salt.
JulieW brought up a great point,very balanced and a great personal experience real world example.

REDBACK

 

[gbickle]

The Metals are in nowhere land at the moment... dont think the charts are very relevant..

Its like they are waiting for the next "event" or announcement for their next move ...

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

I think I agree with bsylvest on this. Just about everyone on this forum agrees that SHTF is not far off. Any just about everyone agrees that when SHTF then silver will plummet but because the fundamentals are good then in the long run it will be great to hold onto silver.

BUT - if everyone is so convinced that SHTF = lower silver prices, then why not wait until then to buy all your silver. I know you can't prefict the bottom but when SHTF we'll all know about it and then would be the time to buy. Seems like a lot of people (myself included) are saying that because it will be high eventually it is ok to buy high now rather than cheaper tomorrow. A bit like buying a house for $500k this year instead of $400k next year because in 10 years time it should be worth $1 mill.....in my mind you'd still have paid $100k too much for that (hypothetical) house

simple - cos you wont be able to source any physical then, or at least not in the quantities you'd need.

savvvie??

 

[jpanggy]

simple - cos you wont be able to source any physical then, or at least not in the quantities you'd need.

savvvie??

You can still source paper silver as long as the world doesn't end. I am also sure the asx ETPMAG (silver etf) will still be available. If stackers are only doing this to speculate then the paper market makes more sense than physical.

For as long as no country is wiped off the face of the earth, these financial instruments are still useful. The crisis we are entering is a financial crisis, if we are entering world war or interplanetary war then the fundamentals differ.

However, picking bottom and top of market is difficult and spreading your purchase is still very important.

If anyone has gone all in at price point higher than now, then they will feel pain at this point. Good luck everybody, hope we all survive and thrive after this coming crisis.

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

a few definitions of money

* Medium of exchange
* Measure of value
* Store of value

Well, the fiat money does a lousy job at storing value.

Look at the world nowadays ?

Everything is subsidized and relies on Central Banks 'managing' the economies.
They teach us that in order to grow wealth we should go into debt ?!

The people of the world have been fooled and bamboozled into this wrong, fraudulent idealogy.

The bankers dont give a .... about your or mine or anyone elses wealth.
They only care about themselves.

You buy land ... the banker creates the equivalent in value in FIAT
you buy a car ... the banker creates the equivalent in value in FIAT
you buy a TV ... the banker creates the equivalent in value in FIAT

whatever is bought on credit, gets created ALSO on some banks balance sheet.

and all along its 5-10% interest pa.

they print while the cattle buys and thinks it will last forever.

With gold and silver its different, they cant print it, they have to dig it out of the ground.

Your grandfather used gold and silver, and my grandfather used gold and silver ( and he lived on the other side of the planet )

Money with no intrinsic value is one of the biggest scams perpetrated on mankind in its history.
They have done this on purpose and now are calling the shots.
and they have planned this and stuck to their plans since the creation of the Bank of England.

and governments all over the world must submit, or chaos will be created within a few hours and their
economies will be decimated and revolutions will result within a few days.

We live in a world where the banking system is too big to fail.
and we see governments failing around us - they have been outdone.

the bankers knifed them in the back.


and lastly, if you cant sleep or worry too much, than sell the silver and sleep well.

As simple as that.

Good luck.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

+ 1

excellent post mate!

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

Don't invest what you can't lose, especially in something volatile like silver.

If you can afford to lose 50%, then put the other 50% in cash. If you can't afford to lose 80% at this point, then put 80% in cash.

Don't listen to the hyperinflation bs that gets sprouted around, when it happens you will know about it, and you will have enough time to move it in to another asset.

Those who shun cash are robbing themselves of an extremely stable non volatile safe haven at the moment.

The AUD is an extemely safe haven at the moment?? :lol:

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

If you can't wait a few months, or years even, for silver to exceed your dollars investment, then as soon as it reaches the point of returning your 'investment', then sell the lot and park the cash in an interest bearing account that will return you more than the inflation rate (the real one, not the government fiction).

please - as soon as you know of such a bank - please let me know

 

[metalzzz]

haha yippie is shredding on here

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

Not really. If i can take my promise and buy a cheeseburger with it, then it's money. It doesn't matter what they do with it - hell I don't give a damn if they go throw a party with it, as long as the government is guaranteeing I'll get it back, it's good enough

if "what they're doing with it" means i need to pay twice as much for my cheeseburger - then NO - it's not okay!


seems as if - in your opinion - your name does not refer to fiat then ...

 

[jpanggy]

Don't invest what you can't lose, especially in something volatile like silver.

If you can afford to lose 50%, then put the other 50% in cash. If you can't afford to lose 80% at this point, then put 80% in cash.

Don't listen to the hyperinflation bs that gets sprouted around, when it happens you will know about it, and you will have enough time to move it in to another asset.

Those who shun cash are robbing themselves of an extremely stable non volatile safe haven at the moment.

The AUD is an extemely safe haven at the moment?? :lol:

No real safe haven right now, cash sort of helps, but any instrument of investment with risk is more risky than cash. Even pm (in respect to fiat loss possibility).

Everyone has their strategy and approach, however in general, not a good idea to go all in into 1 asset class (cash,re,pm,stocks,etc).

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

Just be careful and pay attention to the government. You'll want to offload before the Governor General activates Part IV of the Banking Act.

Woah, hang on a second - what is this?? I googled it and became hopelessly lost in the legalese... Is there anyone out there who can explain this (specifically, the consequences for the average joe) for if and when this happens?? In laymans terms, for the dumbass over here

It means that - just as Roosevelt stole the gold of the population of the US in the 1930's - so too the government of nanniland will do the very same thing Downunda! It's already provided for in the referenced banking act, i.e. it's already "law"...

the only way this can be overturned is to elect a Libertarian government. **yawn**
impossible though while the zombies/sheeple are in the majority

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

hi bsylvest

My eyes glazed over trying to read this thread, hopefully i'm not regurgitating others' thoughts.

Anyway, i think:

Many silver investors are bonkers, posters here include paranoid schizophrenics and psychopaths.

Silver is, more likely than not, screwed. If it went to $9 in GFC1 it could go to something sickening like $4 in GFC2, by which point this forum's incessant BTFDers would have more on their minds than silver.

I bought in the mid 20s and didn't bother with that cost averaging stuff (cost averaging is good for catching falling knifes but stupid for catching rising bubbles).

I had the timidity/brains/discipline not to buy over $30. I missed the top but still sold most of my silver months ago for a decent profit. I'm now just left with a dozen kilo coins in a bank's safe deposit box. They might make nice doorstops or paperweights one day.

Anyway, you're feeling bad about your gamble so I suggest you sell maybe a third of your silver now, regardless of your purchase price. (You can at least claim a capital loss.)

The basis for my advice is that from here the price can only go up, go down or stay the same.

If silver goes up, you can be relieved your investment was successful and you still have most of your silver to cash in.

If silver goes down, you can be relieved you sold a fair whack at current higher prices. Plus there's always the option of buying it back.

If silver stays the same, whether you sold or not is immaterial.

Hope that helps, good luck people.

Great to see such dazzling insight from our new members...

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

The other thing to consider is, even if the S does HTF, your assumption that industrial demand for silver will slump is not a given. More and more baby boomers are aging and getting diabetes, getting festering ulcers and sores on their legs, and silver infused bandages are the only real way to treat that. No matter how many banks go bankrupt, the aging population is still going to require medical care, and because of the reckless way GPs have doled out anti-biotics willy nilly for the last 50 years, thus creating super strains of bacteria, demand for silver over the next 20-30 years is going to be even stronger than ever before.

Your paradigm of looking at these issues OP is bunk. You sound like a wuss.

lol :lol:

 

[LovingtheSilver]

short term answer.... most definitely. I still believe we will see repeat of GFC1, initial massive drop then overtake $50 high. Will probably witness multiple future 'GFC's' before the whole thing is reset. the next one will be a real kick in the guts but not the last.
Look what happened after last weeks little scare, that was a preview i think.. and also woke me up a little. Im happy keeping my stack and still accumulate in smaller amounts from now. Looking at clearing small debts, raising my cash amount while cutting back on PM's (but still buying)

 

[940palmtx]

Don't invest what you can't lose, especially in something volatile like silver.

If you can afford to lose 50%, then put the other 50% in cash. If you can't afford to lose 80% at this point, then put 80% in cash.

Don't listen to the hyperinflation bs that gets sprouted around, when it happens you will know about it, and you will have enough time to move it in to another asset.

Those who shun cash are robbing themselves of an extremely stable non volatile safe haven at the moment.

The AUD is an extemely safe haven at the moment?? :lol:

No real safe haven right now, cash sort of helps, but any instrument of investment with risk is more risky than cash. Even pm (in respect to fiat loss possibility).

Everyone has their strategy and approach, however in general, not a good idea to go all in into 1 asset class (cash,re,pm,stocks,etc).

Ding,Ding,Ding,Ding...we have a winner!
The word that rules investing? DIVERSIFY

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

The AUD is an extemely safe haven at the moment?? :lol:

No real safe haven right now, cash sort of helps, but any instrument of investment with risk is more risky than cash. Even pm (in respect to fiat loss possibility).

Everyone has their strategy and approach, however in general, not a good idea to go all in into 1 asset class (cash,re,pm,stocks,etc).

Ding,Ding,Ding,Ding...we have a winner!
The word that rules investing? DIVERSIFY

lol - it works if you dont know what you're doing... the losses are evened out by gains - but no (or precious little) overall gain :lol:

 

[940palmtx]

No real safe haven right now, cash sort of helps, but any instrument of investment with risk is more risky than cash. Even pm (in respect to fiat loss possibility).

Everyone has their strategy and approach, however in general, not a good idea to go all in into 1 asset class (cash,re,pm,stocks,etc).

Ding,Ding,Ding,Ding...we have a winner!
The word that rules investing? DIVERSIFY

lol - it works if you dont know what you're doing... the losses are evened out by gains - but no (or precious little) overall gain :lol:

No or precious little overall gain is very misleading. Maybe if you held every possible kind of investment vehicle, which would be something like total or complete diversification.
Having only one investment vehicle is not risky it's downright ignorant. You don't have to have your cash spread 8-10 different ways, but having it all in one basket? Well let's just say no successful investor does that. There is an exception to every rule and Yip, you might be it, good onya mate.
Oh, forgot to mention buying and holding physical PMs makes you ZERO money. It's only selling that allows realized gains, whereas other investments can and do provide income without having to sell them.

 

[jpanggy]

lol - it works if you dont know what you're doing... the losses are evened out by gains - but no (or precious little) overall gain :lol:

True, but we only 100% know what we were doing in hindsight. Unless someone here has crystal ball or quantum computer then we don't know 100% where our investment is going. So, a little bit of diversification helps and certainly helps calm the nerves when one investment class decides to take a dive off the highest cliff.