Is it a good time to flip gold for silver?

I don't have enough Au to flip over.. :(


Even if I did, I probably still wouldn't unless absolutely extreme circumstances.

And part of that has to do with what it is (one-off fractionals that I really like, as opposed to multiple generic bars of the same type), as well as my basic strategy & preferences.


Agree with some of the prior posters: GSR can go anywhere at any time. There are no boundaries, really.. 40, 85, 15, 130, etc. And oftentimes occurring for different durations of time for different reasons.

I happily bought at 70-75, and would probably do so closer to 100, even.


From what I recall, it's hit around 150 in the past. Nothing says it can't do that again, or even greatly surpass that.

Today's whole financial & economic system is really screwed up -- unprecedented, really -- and wouldn't put anything past it.


Also, in certain ways, Ag isn't what it used to be perceived as by the general public, say, even 50 years ago..

Doesn't mean that can't swing back the other way, but that might not happen for quite some time.


Probably no swapping for me. Though that doesn't mean I just wouldn't stop buying one or the other for a while, either.

Am I missing out by not swapping? Who knows..

But it seems it's only used most effectively during infrequent & extreme market misalignments, and truly knowing what's the best course of action only in hindsight.
 
miniroo said:
swapping gold for silver @ 80:1? why not 100:1? perhaps 150:1 or 300:1.

It's like you are all convinced 80:1 is the maximum.
it's exactly what the powers that be want you to do, hand in your gold and take lots of something else that's not gold.

My theory is still that silver will drop off the PM radar, it's pretty much useless today and I reckon some time soon we will see silver in the same category as copper, it's a non-ferrous metal and that's all.

I rocked up the other day with a dolley full of cash here that I wanted to swap for gold, no one wanted to part with it.
If it was silver I bet i'd have dozens of offers.

Keep your gold and buy silver with spare cash for fun.
Click to expand...

+1 silver is mostly an industrial metal now. I still like it, but gold is different.
 
miniroo said:
swapping gold for silver @ 80:1? why not 100:1? perhaps 150:1 or 300:1.

It's like you are all convinced 80:1 is the maximum.
it's exactly what the powers that be want you to do, hand in your gold and take lots of something else that's not gold.

My theory is still that silver will drop off the PM radar, it's pretty much useless today and I reckon some time soon we will see silver in the same category as copper, it's a non-ferrous metal and that's all.

I rocked up the other day with a dolley full of cash here that I wanted to swap for gold, no one wanted to part with it.
If it was silver I bet i'd have dozens of offers.

Keep your gold and buy silver with spare cash for fun.
Click to expand...

I am quite new to stacking and PM,s but I feel even with my inexperience that you are perhaps 100% correct!

I dont have the hordes of available cash some on SS seem too by buying up big silver, I just buy silver as a side to gold because I cant afford enough gold to satisfy my "want" :)
 
miniroo said:
swapping gold for silver @ 80:1? why not 100:1? perhaps 150:1 or 300:1.

It's like you are all convinced 80:1 is the maximum.
it's exactly what the powers that be want you to do, hand in your gold and take lots of something else that's not gold.

My theory is still that silver will drop off the PM radar, it's pretty much useless today and I reckon some time soon we will see silver in the same category as copper, it's a non-ferrous metal and that's all.

I rocked up the other day with a dolley full of cash here that I wanted to swap for gold, no one wanted to part with it.
If it was silver I bet i'd have dozens of offers.

Keep your gold and buy silver with spare cash for fun.
Click to expand...

I agree with you. The price of silver will never go up. No one run last week to buy silver.It's at the same category as copper an industrial material:(
 
Time to buy silver judging by all the negative sentiment in here :)

As someone on the selling side of the table, people WANT silver as an investment. Coin minting demand alone is probably putting the floor under the price at the moment.

Just pull up a GSR chart for the last 35 years (post demonetisation of gold and post Hunt era of silver) to see what the GSR can do, and why swapping gold for silver makes sense.

Never say never.
 
miniroo said:
swapping gold for silver @ 80:1? why not 100:1? perhaps 150:1 or 300:1.


My theory is still that silver will drop off the PM radar, it's pretty much useless today.
Click to expand...



Someone has already pointed out in agreement in this that Silver is no longer a precious metal but now an industrial one.

But just to point out one of those industries is the energy sector. So this makes it a current day energy consumable? Like coal or uranium?

I'm by far any kind of informed expert, just an opinion really.

But with mining in general waning, and just a personal assumption that you may very well see an even more drastic take up of solar over the next 10-20 years, it could very will become something between precious and industrial, an energy metal :D

Average solar panels i read somewhere use something like 10 ounces to every 15 solar panels?

This one here below is a quote from just three days ago... Wonder how many panels/ounces you fit in a couple of million square meters?





"Solar power project developer, Fotowatio Renewable Ventures (FRV), has secured planning approval from the Central Highlands Regional Council for its Lilyvale Solar Farm.

The project of up to 150 megawatts will be located over 400-hectares near the town of Tieri, using trackers to rotate the panels in line with the sun. According to the council it will represent an investment in the vicinity of $400 million, creating up to 200 jobs for around 18 months during the construction phase.

Central Highlands' Mayor Cr Peter Maguire said, "There's no doubt Tieri and the surrounding towns of Capella and Emerald will benefit from the activity associated with the construction. This type of investment in the Central Highlands is exactly the type of diversification of enterprise and economic focus that we need in the face of current challenges in the resource industry.""
 
HudsonDesign said:
Average solar panels i read somewhere use something like 10 ounces to every 15 solar panels?

This one here below is a quote from just three days ago... Wonder how many panels/ounces you fit in a couple of million square meters?

"
Click to expand...
How long is a piece of string?
I once heard it takes 5 horses to move a bit of wood.
Now without the sarcasm just how big are these solar panels that require 10 ounces of silver?
1 square foot @ 15watts? or 1000 square meters @ 10000watts.
I am sure you get my point.
 
Yeah this I all know. I was just quoting some articles based on some average household panel using 2/3 ounce of silver per panel, so 10 oz to 15 was again a rough idea of estimate to illustrate the idea.

So sitting the sarcastic comments aside, my point was not how much silver was in a panel, but rather how many panels in general might be needed over the next 10-20 years.

The amount of solar PV power installed in the United States grew 485 percent from 2010 to 2013.

As of the start of 2015 one in five homes in Australia also had some form of panel on their roof in various sizes too.

So yes, if you stop and consider the potential future uptake of solar, the piece of string could be very long indeed....
 
Going by around me, it may be different elsewhere but I have the impression that people are losing interest in solar panels.
There was a point there a few years ago when it seemed trendy, but I haven't seen many new installations in my area.

Another thing is my next door neighbor who was bragging about his solar panels just 3 years ago, a whopping 1.5 kw
well, now the same panels can give you 3 kw, his crappy panels are useless when an average home around me uses about 10 kw.
not to mention i'm in melbourne and the sun doesn't shine all that often.

So what happens when those that like solar want to upgrade? the old one's get recycled, the silver comes back.
we've covered this subject a couple years ago and I still say that unless they install solar panels on the moon, all the silver will come back again into the market, just like copper it cycles continuously, hundreds of times over, all the silver ever mined is still here, you could be buying ASE's that were once kodak film, or xray's.

So nope, solar panels are just another way to cycle a little silver, as soon as you install solar panels there'll be a better one available, more efficient, last longer and less silver.

same as electronics, what little silver is being used is being recycled, if I was going to speculate on metals it would be oddball stuff like Ruthenium, you wouldn't believe just how much electronics rely on Ruthenium in the form of Thick Film Resistors.

Tantalum is another, they can't replace tantalum in the kind of capacitors that require it.
being a conflict metal, one day it's going to catch a lot of people out, the main source of some of these conflict metals are only available because of smuggling out of countries that mine it.

Here's a little take I did on the abundance of Ruthenium use on electronic circuit boards..

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRXvUguIfhw[/youtube]
 
Jislizard said:
Now is a good time, I have been swapping it out from about 65 upwards, I am now down to about 1/4 of my gold stack. If it hits 80 then I will get rid of the rest of my gold for silver.
Click to expand...

My philosophy is not tied to any particular state of the gold silver ratio. I own 50% gold and 50% silver. Once a year I rebalance. So if the value of my silver becomes less than the value of my gold, I buy more silver. So after the rebalancing I'm back to 50% gold and 50% silver again. It's just my way of disciplining myself, to keep stacking without the emotional roller coaster ride.
 
Apparently there is a company called Natcore technology who have managed to design a solar panel that uses aluminium instead of silver with no detrimental effects.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...-that-eliminates-use-of-silver-300129756.html

This is a little concerning as also apparently they have their patent in for approval whcih should be granted in a couple of months. I had solar panels down as a big silver consumer as more and more countries signed up to energy saving agreements.


On the subject of flipping gold and silver I was considering doing this but thought it would be easier with ETF's rather than using my physical stack. A couple of thousand or $'s worth in ETF's and pick suitable points to flip at, near 70 to silver under 60 to gold and in theory I should be adding ounces over time, the ETF's should make the transfer easier and quicker and when the time is right I cash out in physical. I'm aware we go with physical because of the dangers of paper products but the premium is a killer which could be avoided. I'm not sure what companies ar ebest suited for this plan and if I can do it just as easily with allocated accounts, if the holding company takes a 2% fee it would still be cheaper than covering the premiums on physical, I'm in the UK so I have the 20% VAT to try and avoid.
 
mmissinglink said:
It is more likely that GSR would hit 25 before 100 or the other way around?



.
Click to expand...
Absolutely the other way around.
We will not see a GSR of 1-25 in our life times.
Now the 1- 100 is coming any time now:)
 
Finally have some time to get back to Silver Stackers ^^. I must have missed out a lot of cycles in the past year. Definitely a good time to swap gold for silver. G/S ratio is 76.
Anything above 60 is very good.

Here is why:
Imagine if you have 2 oz of GOLD and do the swap today. 1 oz GOLD = 76 oz SILVER @ 1:76

You will have 152 oz of silver

When the G/S ratio revert back to 1: 35 (which is quite possible) in the coming year and you exchange this back for gold,

You will have 4.34 ounce of gold.

[* This is ideal situation as you still need to take into account the premiums].

Cheers
Marco Chu
Author of Corruption of Real Money.
 
Cinvalo said:
When the G/S ratio revert back to 1: 35 (which is quite possible) in the coming year and you exchange this back for gold.
Click to expand...

Why is that "quite possible"? GSR has been under 35 for a brief period only once in the last 30 years.
 
Porcello said:
Cinvalo said:
When the G/S ratio revert back to 1: 35 (which is quite possible) in the coming year and you exchange this back for gold.
Click to expand...

Why is that "quite possible"? GSR has been under 35 for a brief period only once in the last 30 years.
Click to expand...
My bet would be to help the "author" sell his self published book?
Every fishing trip needs bait or a lure:)
 
The dynamic of Silver market is very different from other markets. If you are in this forum long enough, you will experience the momentum in 2011. "It is going to the moon " mentality is in many post. It was on April 25, 2011 that silver traded $49.80 per ounce in the New York spot market. A few years before that, the price goes as low as single digit. Again, this is what happened when i entered the market , so it is my experience only. If you enter the market after the collapse of 2011, you might have a different opinion. ;)

I agree with you that silver has been under 35 for a brief moment in the last 30 years. The reason i say it is "quite possible " is because the economic fundamental today is very different compared to the past. There are just to many factors/conditions affecting the price of silver in both directions in the "SHORT TERM". How high or low the price of silver will be really depends how these conditions WEIGHTS against one another.

No i am not helping myself to sell my book. In fact, i am going to release a KINDLE VERSION for FREE in this forum for a limited period. :)
So no bait or lure. It is just some work of mine to share my humble piece of work. ^^
 
I like this quote from the Buddha~Silver is just a figment of our imagination.
I always liked that one.

REDBACK
 
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