Is it a good time to flip gold for silver?
- Thread starter SpacePete
- Start date
I believe so. Fits my GSR strategy.
Jim4silver
Well-Known Member
As long as your trade is close to the ratio and the silver you obtain is decent, then yes. I know of an older guy that has done that in the past and each time he basically doubles his stash.
I plan to swap most of my silver for gold once/if the ratio gets back into the mid-30s, like it did in 2011.
Jim
I plan to swap most of my silver for gold once/if the ratio gets back into the mid-30s, like it did in 2011.
Jim
banks kept their metals
New Member
I flipped some gold in Fall of 2011 (GSR 46.62), Spring of 2013 (GSR 52.23), Fall of 2014 (GSR 63.82) and again this spring at a GSR of 74.59. Hindsight I would have waited for today but it's impossible to time the markets. One day in the future, I'm convinced we'll see GSR at 50 once a again, and at that time, I'll flip it back to gold. In the meantime, I'm patient and I quite enjoy watching all the world currencies fighting to devalue their currencies. One country at a time, tick, tock, tick, tock, interest rates are heading to zero and then negative. one day people will turn to PM's.
mmissinglink
Active Member
banks kept their metals said:
You flip-flopper!
No, but seriously, SilverPete , if you believe the GSR will come back down to a point where after all is said and done you can make a good profit and it isn't a huge trouble for you to flip and you believe a significant GSR drop will happen in a time frame that suits your needs, then of course (from a logical standpoint) you should flip some gold and increase your silver stack.
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I only swap silver for gold at 45 or lower. I only swap gold for silver at 65 or higher. Might mean a few years between swaps but if you hold long term it works out awesome. It's not a short term strategy, that's for sure. I also had swap points at 40 and 35, and 70 and 75.
Strategy is to swap 25% of holdings at each target - so say I held 40oz of gold, I would swap 10oz for silver at 65, 70 and 75, and the rest I would chase a top at 80 or higher which is very rare the past few decades.
Came up with those numbers based on post 1980 charts.
Strategy is to swap 25% of holdings at each target - so say I held 40oz of gold, I would swap 10oz for silver at 65, 70 and 75, and the rest I would chase a top at 80 or higher which is very rare the past few decades.
Came up with those numbers based on post 1980 charts.
Aww good boy Jislizard, you stuck to the plan
I've been casually modelling the strategy against stock pairs, eg SolarCity and Sunpower here in the US. There's some nice ratio swings over shorter timeframes that could work out to be very profitable over 2-3 years. That's within the same sector. For s&g I'm also modelling Tesla vs Disney which are two totally different industries, but kind of related in that they are both market darlings, but now that Tesla has done its moonshot from a single digit to a triple digit stock (missed that boat), the same ratio trends are appearing, like sine waves across the charts.
I've been casually modelling the strategy against stock pairs, eg SolarCity and Sunpower here in the US. There's some nice ratio swings over shorter timeframes that could work out to be very profitable over 2-3 years. That's within the same sector. For s&g I'm also modelling Tesla vs Disney which are two totally different industries, but kind of related in that they are both market darlings, but now that Tesla has done its moonshot from a single digit to a triple digit stock (missed that boat), the same ratio trends are appearing, like sine waves across the charts.
I'm selling my Sydney mint sovereigns for silver, that's when you know it's gotten real.
It's the currency as much as anything, $13.50usd silver at $0.65aud/usd is $20.80aud silver. I really don't think there will be cheaper australian dollar silver. Even if there is a major 10%+ capitulation then we probably won't see any serious major Australian benefit. The
It could go lower but at ~$13 miners are going broke and it will be truck time.
I need to trade some of it in for a little Au though, can't have 95% silver just in case China goes gold standard in a fit of panic.
It's the currency as much as anything, $13.50usd silver at $0.65aud/usd is $20.80aud silver. I really don't think there will be cheaper australian dollar silver. Even if there is a major 10%+ capitulation then we probably won't see any serious major Australian benefit. The
It could go lower but at ~$13 miners are going broke and it will be truck time.
I need to trade some of it in for a little Au though, can't have 95% silver just in case China goes gold standard in a fit of panic.
SilverPete said:
I'll flip you "odds or evens", my silver kilo coin to your 1/2 oz gold coin this Sunday meet.
SilverPete said:
Face to face private deal.
Postage is a pain, not for the person selling the gold of course, but it gets expensive posting kilos of silver. And the risk of it going missing.
Dealers will take the gold at spot but charge full price for silver.
Then you have to argue over the premium of the silver and gold, obviously a generic blob of silver would be good but the seller is going to want to get rid of the largest most generic blob they can, so a no-name kilo bar might be offered rather than a bag full of no name generic rounds and it is unlikely that you will be offered tubes of 2012 Dragon 1oz coins.
My last physical GSR swap was for three 1/4oz Gold Maples and three kilos of 50% pre dec coins when the GSR was around 53 I think. Each paid their own postage. It was fun but not enough to make me want to do it again.
You might want to swap your gold for some nice premium silver rather than just generic or if someone is looking to off load some pre dec you might be able to get a decent deal.
I feel better after reading these comments because I'm all in on silver right now. Keep meaning to buy some 1/4oz gold ASE's but whenever I get cash I buy silver. I need to diversify a bit but the ratio is keeping me comfortable although I worry if silver never goes anywhere I'd like some gold. The final analysis tells me that silver has to go up at some point due to extraction costs and industrial usage.
mmissinglink
Active Member
Stroctor said:
I think I know that feeling. It's the one that comes after the old " I never have enough money to purchase all the shiny white and yellow candy I'm looking at in the windows" dilemma.
Just like with the price of barrels of oil in that market, production costs and industrial demand is only a part of the answer to the current trading spot price. Large volume speculative buying and selling is what really sets the price I believe. Speculators often look for short term gains and aren't necessarily interested in annual industrial demand and whether a small mining company or two has long term viability issues.
Still, demand and extraction costs are ingredients in the spot price recipe.
I do believe, like you, that silver will go up....not fast or quickly (except for spurts of normal market volatility) but rather slowly but surely....bar any unforeseen very major catastrophes.
The Silver Phoenix is awakened.
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I've don't care too much for the GSR as you could wait forever for a swing. As I've always maintained mechanism to combat the killer premiums on silver. Although the GSR swap has long been discussed it's a common held belief that GSR at 50:1 is ball park figure to swap silver for gold (It's a old topic discussed for decades ). I'm glad you mentioned generic swaps of gold for silver. As higher premium swap outs would be useless. If you have never been in the habit of finding a way to pay for the premium on silver like flipping or selling goods on Ebay / Gumtree / Forum at profit expressly for the purpose of using those profits to pay for the premium. I'd stay right away from silver full stop. Notice why so many on the forum are selling crap to build their silver stack ! If you just wish to have precious metals as a hedge along with assets that's fine. As for the gold or silver if SHTF/GTF-out-of-town scenario that's a matter of speculation what sort of trading power it may have in a island nation. Governments are very quick to circumvent any such activity. Any such trading even online or with dealers can be shut down instantly. Note what happened in Greece. The Average Aussie has no clue of the value of gold or silver anyway in such crisis. Cash in hand, food and fuel are king. If you have no plan to combat the premiums on precious metals, I suggest just stack cash and hold the gold as your second option. Unless stacking is a hobby for you....Cheers
swapping gold for silver @ 80:1? why not 100:1? perhaps 150:1 or 300:1.
It's like you are all convinced 80:1 is the maximum.
it's exactly what the powers that be want you to do, hand in your gold and take lots of something else that's not gold.
My theory is still that silver will drop off the PM radar, it's pretty much useless today and I reckon some time soon we will see silver in the same category as copper, it's a non-ferrous metal and that's all.
I rocked up the other day with a dolley full of cash here that I wanted to swap for gold, no one wanted to part with it.
If it was silver I bet i'd have dozens of offers.
Keep your gold and buy silver with spare cash for fun.
It's like you are all convinced 80:1 is the maximum.
it's exactly what the powers that be want you to do, hand in your gold and take lots of something else that's not gold.
My theory is still that silver will drop off the PM radar, it's pretty much useless today and I reckon some time soon we will see silver in the same category as copper, it's a non-ferrous metal and that's all.
I rocked up the other day with a dolley full of cash here that I wanted to swap for gold, no one wanted to part with it.
If it was silver I bet i'd have dozens of offers.
Keep your gold and buy silver with spare cash for fun.