Is $22 the new bottom?
- Thread starter sammysilver
- Start date
China cannot call in its US debt at once or it will collapse its labor rate advantage and exports will dry up. It is doing it gradually by sloughing off bonds bit by bit and accumulating gold. At the same time it sets up the AIIB to solidify the BRICS group and isolate the US which it has done in spectacular style though it never gets reported in the West. It then gets the IMF to include the yuan in the basket of currencies for international trade despite US protests. In the meantime, Russia pushes the US out of the Middle East and makes them look pathetic. Putin quickly arranges for peace talks in Syria and arranges for Russian companies to do the repair work in Syria. It does similar in Iraq and all with Iran's blessing. Israel can't believe what's happening but Obama has already stabbed Israel in the back over the Iran nuclear deal so Netanyahu can do nothing but hope Russia can keep it going smoothly. Yesterday Putin demanded to know why the USD is still a currency of use in Russian trade despite laws against foreign currency. China makes a very visible appearance in Moscow for the Victory parade with no Western representation of note. Europe is screwed no matter and needs Russia to help with the refugees crisis. The US is having a noose tightened around its neck and can only respond in the traditional American way: war. That's why it has a fleet in the South China Sea. China knows what they are up to and will be patient. The US can no longer afford big wars and the longer BRICS wait the weaker the US becomes. It's game over. The USD is worthless and now marginalised. It might take some time but every day the BRICS alliance takes ground from the US. All done bit by bit so nobody notices. One little thing at a time so the markets don't panic and Russia and China can extricate themselves from the USD. There won;t be a collapse unless the US get too trigger happy or BRICS makes the wrong move. All that will happen is that the US will become increasingly irrelevant until the entire global power structure moves from the US/IMF to BRICS/AIIB. This isn't my opinion. This is happening right now and every day. The mastery of it is in the fact that Western media never reports on it. Never. The markets keep bouncing around and the BRICS group get stronger. I am gratified that Australia is the 6th largest contributor to the AIIB despite the US pressuring Joe Hockey & Tony Abbott. That decision alone, to join, might be our salvation.
leon1998 said:@Monsta, I agree that it might be a little late to convert AUD to USD; but shouldn't you have thought about this two years ago? AUD is your currency; it is backed by natural resources. Just like CAD, it dropped together with crude oil.
One thing I can't agree with many of the replies here, is that USD will stay alive for longer than you can stay solvent. USD is the world reserve currency and it's backed by military superpower. One of the reason why USD started a strong uptrend few years ago; was that too many investors were bearish about it.
If you dig back through the forum you'll find at least one thread and about a dozen posts of mine saying that I was waiting to see the aussie at. 90 us cents again to buy USD so I could take advantage of cheaper silver prices later in the year. We never saw .90 again and the aussie seemed to weak at that point, what I'd give to get in at. 80 now. My point is that it may well seem too late now but at .65 it could well look pretty tasty.
Monsta
Member
leon1998 said:
I don't agree. The AUD is not backed by much at all, we have zero real manufacturing industries here now and the commodities which have held up our GDP the most (Iron Ore, Coal) have fallen heavily in price and also demand. This means we get played on the massive swings and roundabouts now without much to slow down the movements. As you say we dropped with oil, and we seem to be exporting energy (coal, gas, oil) more than minerals these days.
The biggest impact on the AUD in recent times was that the Federal Government guaranteed funds in bank accounts up to $250K, and that the interest rate delta between the free cash in the US was around 3.5%. The reason that the AUD was strong was that the US Bank carry trade was depositing it in Australia and they needed to buy AUD to do so.
When the Interest rates here dropped then the interest rate delta changed and it was much less lucrative. That's when the AUD started losing steam.
I was only making the point that if you wanted to swap AUD for USD, then that boat has absolutely sailed to get the best value out of it. While you could go it now and get say 70c and execute a gold buy off that at say 65-60c with a benefit, but the benefit you could have had at 90c or more was quite high.
And for the record, yes I did change a reasonable amount of AUD into USD when we were above parity. I will swap it back when I feel there is a real upturn coming or starting to become evident in the market. The return on investment today already far & away beats interest or even sharemarket returns over the same period.
Monsta
Member
SilverDJ said:Yep, most of my silver was bought sub AU$20. I now consider anything over that as being "expensive"
I know it's the AUD drop that's done it, but I still have to buy and sell in AUD, so that's really all that matters to me.
It's always a matter of perspective. But as long as you realise the wider market deals in ounces on USD terms, it helps things a little.
That said, Friday night and we are back under $22 even with losing 1.5c though the week, and also under $1600 for gold.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=DX&cot=098662&p=m1&rev=635818591038530953leon1998 said:My long term view of gold is about US$800 area; which implies further USD strength. Maybe converting AUD to USD at a relatively better rate, and then thinking about buying physical in the future with USD; is a viable strategy.
One could state that the USD sits now around a 2 decades average.
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=6A&cot=232741&p=m1&rev=635818593346219181
... and the AUD 20 cents above the 50 cents 2 decades average.
So your AUD to USD conversion at a relatively better rate, has a 2 decades judgement basis.
Of course, thie requires a same execution basis / financial planning / speculation horizon. Things can change in an equal degree on a shorter basis, in the other way.
I think averages serve as a good basis, because central planners obviously work together, and the very root of their theft strategy is not allowing any currency becoming too strong, or too weak, relative to others. The "Snake in the Tunnel" (an euro example) underlying concept of their common monetary system, ex http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/euro/emu/road/ems_en.htm
SilverDJ
Well-Known Member
Monsta said:Suit yourself, I only go in for that when I expect to be rid of it shortly.... ie playing the casino. Which I do occasionally for fun, especially in the leadup to RBA rate decisionsSilverDJ said:
Personally have grabbed a bit more into my allocated accounts.
I'm talking about allocated actually.
Actually, could either be allocated bars/coins or pool gold. Almost nothing in it in terms of premium, so usually allocated.
Pool is nicer if you want to but/sell smaller 0.5oz allocations.
Paper was the wrong term, I should leave that for ETF's, but it's still kind of "paper" to me because I never see the metal.
I have ETF paper oil, but no ETF gold as I don't see the point when you can get allocated/pool share of real physical with the same ease in buying/selling.
Monsta
Member
SilverDJ said:
I am only really getting silver via my allocated account at the moment due to premiums although I expect those to settle a little more into Christmas. The funny thing is that I am buying allocated right now cheaper than most dealer-based unallocated accounts. BullionMoney is currently $23.84/oz for unallocated Silver - and yes I have an active account with them. My main Allocated Provider is at $22.80/oz on silver with 12 months storage & insurance, ability to sell back, and free pickup in Sydney CBD.
I agree with the ETF Metals, much better to actually hold physical at least in allocated unless you can hold it elsewhere. The only reason I might get an ETF is in my Margin Loan account where it gives a very good LVR. It means I can hedge on an ASX-listed equity with an ETF metal - really helpful for stocks with large USD exposures or income denominated in USD like QBE.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Sorry, but alot decisions and figures show that China- and US- and EU- and nearly all other governments work together to fight speculators that try to evade their theft by dumping their currencies for whatever.
So-called conflicts now and then are just soap-for-camera to disguise this cooperation for speculators, and those that try to get an income from misleaded speculators' bad decisions just jump on the same bandwagon.
To trew: there is no such group as "everybody". The population is divided in 3 parts: those that are stolen from, those that steal and those that the thieves made dependent and serve them as obeying peons.
The victims of theft can run to whatever "exit doors" they may see, they're all frontrunned and what is perceived as an "exit door" is just a trap to lose half or more of their savings in that very same process stage of what they thought was "exiting".
If there is anything that brings down the world governments cartel, it will be speculators that take smarter decisions at times that the central planning didn't plan.
So-called conflicts now and then are just soap-for-camera to disguise this cooperation for speculators, and those that try to get an income from misleaded speculators' bad decisions just jump on the same bandwagon.
To trew: there is no such group as "everybody". The population is divided in 3 parts: those that are stolen from, those that steal and those that the thieves made dependent and serve them as obeying peons.
The victims of theft can run to whatever "exit doors" they may see, they're all frontrunned and what is perceived as an "exit door" is just a trap to lose half or more of their savings in that very same process stage of what they thought was "exiting".
If there is anything that brings down the world governments cartel, it will be speculators that take smarter decisions at times that the central planning didn't plan.
Australia was always going to get pounded when China crashed.
The Australian property market will implode within 24 months.
The brics are in a terrible state (see Brazil) and Russia is little better than a failed state acting like a mafia run cargo cult for the USSR.
The 'strong dollar' is rubbish.All major currencies including the Yuan are becoming worthless at different speeds.The dollar will be the last to go possibly not within our lifetimes.
As regards the alternate swift system. Useful for paying your extortion on a commercial building in Moscow to avoid it being smashed up or raided by corrupt officials. Not so useful otherwise.
Gold has done what it is supposed to do for euro holders...protect wealth.
Silver is a different beast. A change in battery tech could double the price or a change in solar half it.
Governments have always set the gold to currency exchange rate. That is exactly what bretton woods specifies. It won't be allowed soar or collapse permently and that makes it the most underwritten commodity in history.
Economics lessons from moscow? The people who brought us the USSR and putins failed state?
Fools to propaganda like moths to flames.
The Australian property market will implode within 24 months.
The brics are in a terrible state (see Brazil) and Russia is little better than a failed state acting like a mafia run cargo cult for the USSR.
The 'strong dollar' is rubbish.All major currencies including the Yuan are becoming worthless at different speeds.The dollar will be the last to go possibly not within our lifetimes.
As regards the alternate swift system. Useful for paying your extortion on a commercial building in Moscow to avoid it being smashed up or raided by corrupt officials. Not so useful otherwise.
Gold has done what it is supposed to do for euro holders...protect wealth.
Silver is a different beast. A change in battery tech could double the price or a change in solar half it.
Governments have always set the gold to currency exchange rate. That is exactly what bretton woods specifies. It won't be allowed soar or collapse permently and that makes it the most underwritten commodity in history.
Economics lessons from moscow? The people who brought us the USSR and putins failed state?
Fools to propaganda like moths to flames.
