Interest Rates Rising?

CriticalSilver

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Turkey's central bank more than doubled its main interest rate at an emergency meeting, reversing years of policy after the lira slid to a record low.

The bank in Ankara raised the benchmark repo rate to 10 percent from 4.5 percent, according to a statement posted on its website at midnight. It also raised the overnight lending rate to 12 percent from 7.75 percent, and the overnight borrowing rate to 8 percent from 3.5 percent.

The lira extended gains after the announcement, adding more than 3 percent at 12:12 a.m. in Istanbul.

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...es-main-interest-rate-to-halt-lira-slump.html

That's gotta hurt if you are highly leveraged in your personal finances.

If the US taper is causing USD "liquidity" (hot money) to retract from peripheral countries and speculative equity markets around the world, I wonder what the doyens of value and prices in Martin Place are thinking about leading up to Tuesday?


4 February 2014 2.30 pm AEDT - Reserve Bank Board Meeting, Sydney
 
And more ...

...This is causing currencies to collapse and interest rates to soar all over the planet. Argentina, Turkey, South Africa, Ukraine, Chile, Indonesia, Venezuela, India, Brazil, Taiwan and Malaysia are just some of the emerging markets that have been hit hard so far. In fact, last week emerging market currencies experienced the biggest decline that we have seen since the financial crisis of 2008. And all of this chaos in emerging markets is seriously spooking Wall Street as well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) has fallen nearly 500 points over the last two trading sessions alone. If the Federal Reserve opts to taper even more in the coming days, this currency crisis could rapidly turn into a complete and total currency collapse.

http://etfdailynews.com/2014/01/26/world-currencies-are-starting-to-collapse/

Interest rates have to rise to support currencies and entice foreign capital back. If sovereign states begin competing more heavily for shrinking amounts of foreign capital available for investment and if the All Ords continues to slide, it should be a very interesting RBA meeting next week.
 
But the IMF is on top of the causes ....

(Reuters) - The volatility in world markets is being caused by problems in particular developing countries and not linked to the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to reduce its monetary stimulus, the International Monetary Fund's top financial counselor said.

Large capital outflows from developing markets in the past few days have caused market jitters, with currencies in Turkey, Argentina and Russia hitting record lows. Many investors have blamed the moves on the withdrawal of U.S. monetary stimulus.

"We are seeing that the events in the past few days ... the major component has to do with problems in a subset of emerging market countries," Jose Vinals, financial counselor and director of the IMF's monetary and capital markets department, told reporters on Tuesday.

"This is something where the U.S. monetary policy tapering expectations have so far not played an important role," he said.

Vinals said that the U.S. central bank was acting prudently in starting to reduce its monthly bond buying program, consistent with improvements in U.S. economic data.

He said the chance of a smooth exit from the Fed's so-called "quantitative easing" had in fact increased since October because of the Fed's improved communication. The U.S. central bank has convinced markets that reducing monthly bond purchases was not equivalent to raising rates.

And for central banks in emerging markets, Vinals said it was important to maintain independence in order to keep inflation under control and retain credibility.

Vinals' comments came just before Turkey's central bank decided to sharply raise all of its main interest rates to stem a slide in the lira, despite the opposition of Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/28/us-usa-fed-imf-idUSBREA0R1TV20140128

... apparently reducing liquidity doesn't effect interest rates because the FED has convinced markets that it is so! :o :rolleyes:
 
1929 Bankers jumping out of windows?
or coming down off the drug and hooker binges?
 
Contagion?

India Unexpectedly Raises Rate as Rupee Risks Inflation Goal

India's central bank unexpectedly raised its key interest rate, signaling it's ready to implement the most sweeping changes in its 78-year history to fight the fastest consumer-price gains in Asia.

Governor Raghuram Rajan boosted the repurchase rate to 8 percent from 7.75 percent, the Reserve Bank of India said today. Only three of 45 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey predicted the move, with the rest expecting no change. It came five days after Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram offered a reminder that the central bank has a duty to help growth.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...s-india-rates-as-inflation-target-mulled.html
 
DanielM said:
petey said:
col0016 said:
Jesus, imagine if interest rates went to 10% tonight here :/

I'd consider buying property. :)
Only people who would be buying would be those who could buy outright at discounted prices am I right?
That's crystal ball stuff.

I'd imagine you'd be wanting a decent deposit at the very least.
 
Well, the FED has played their card in the global liquidity game and announced a further $10B per month tapering of their QE program.

The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced a further $US10 billion reduction in its monthly bond purchases as it stuck to a plan to wind down the extraordinary stimulus despite recent turmoil in emerging markets.
Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, who hands the central bank's reins to vice chair Janet Yellen on Friday, also adjourned his last policy-setting meeting without making any changes to the US central bank's other main policy plank: its longer-term plan to keep interest rates low for some time to come.

Read more: http://m.theage.com.au/business/wor...rnanke-prepares-to-depart-20140130-31nk6.html

That's going to deepen the impact of reduced availability of cash for investment in speculative markets. RBA plays its card on Tuesday and I reckon if the ASX declines further there will be a lot of pressure to increase rates.
 
"1929 Bankers jumping out of windows?"


Read something years ago, that they did a survey of the NYC suicide rate in 1929/30. No spike in suicide in NYC!


OC
 
Well, Asian market reaction doesn't look good following the reduction of QE.

Asian Stocks Slump on Fed Cuts to Bond Buying, China PMI

Asian stocks fell for the fifth time in six days after the Federal Reserve pressed on with cuts to U.S. economic stimulus and as a report showed China's manufacturing industry contracted.

Honda Motor Co., which gets 83 percent of its auto sales abroad, lost 2.6 percent as Japanese exporters retreated after the yen gained from the close of equity markets in Tokyo yesterday. Treasury Wine Estates Ltd. (TWE) slumped by a record 20 percent in Sydney as the world's second-largest publicly traded wine maker said earnings fell. Hitachi Metals Ltd. surged 4.9 percent in Tokyo, leading gains on the regional benchmark index, after profit at the steel manufacturer topped analyst estimates.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.6 percent to 134.54 as of 12:23 p.m. in Hong Kong, with all 10 industry groups on the gauge falling. The measure has dropped 4.8 percent in January, on course for the biggest monthly slump since May as part of a global equities rout sparked by weaker-than-expected economic data from China and a sell-off in emerging-market currencies.

"Given the likelihood of continued Fed tapering in the period ahead, there appears little doubt that long emerging market positions are likely to be subjected to near-term pressure," Matthew Sherwood, Sydney-based head of investment markets research at Perpetual Ltd., which manages about $25 billion, said in an e-mail, referring to bets on gains in developing-nation assets. "What we are seeing at present is a global re-pricing of risk."

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-30/asian-stocks-decline-as-fed-cuts-bond-buying-yen-gains.html

Tsk, tsk, tsk ... what ever will Glenn Stevens do ... compete for foreign capital with higher interest rates to aid local markets and strengthen the dollar, or stimulate national credit (debt) growth with lower interest rates and weaken the dollar further fuelling consumer price inflation ... but how can he raise rates if the US says tapering doesn't effect interest rates?

What a way to start the year for the central planners. They might just need a pay rise to cope with it all!
 
Now South Africa's central bank has joined Turkey in acting aggressively to fight off the impact of the capital flight by raising interest rates for the first time in six years.

"Exchange rate pressures are expected to intensify as markets adjust to the new pattern of global capital flows," Mr Marcus said.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-...ight-of-fed-tapering/5228578?section=business

And

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler reiterated he intends to start raising interest rates soon to contain inflation and said he'll have more information to assess the economy's outlook in March.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...tes-plan-to-raise-key-interest-rate-soon.html


 
JulieW said:
http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/wall_street_crash.htm

The impact of the Wall Street Crash :

1) 12 million people out of work

2) 12,000 people being made unemployed every day

3) 20,000 companies had gone bankrupt

4) 1616 banks had gone bankrupt

5) 1 farmer in 20 evicted

6) 23,000 people committed suicide in one year - the highest ever

Probably mostly ordinary investors then.

The problem with these stats is that they aren't a percentage of anything, and even in the farming example (5% of farmers evicted), we have no insight into that was normal for that era.

20,000 companies bankrupt - out of 30,000 companies that is terrible. Out of 1,000,000 it's not so bad.
 
Bernanke Parting Gift on Aussie Lets RBA Hold: Australia Credit
Ben S. Bernanke's decision to begin withdrawing unprecedented policy stimulus is gifting Australian counterpart Glenn Stevens the looser conditions he wants without lowering interest rates at a time of accelerating inflation.

The Aussie has slumped 7.1 percent in the past three months, the most among Group of 10 currencies. A 10 percent drop boosts gross domestic product by 0.5 percentage point to 1 percentage point over two years, the Reserve Bank of Australia estimates. All 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the RBA to keep the cash rate unchanged at 2.5 percent tomorrow.

Stevens is seeking to balance slowing growth and rising unemployment as a once-in-a-century mining investment boom wanes against surging Sydney house prices. Having cut rates by 2.25 percentage points since late 2011 to a record, in recent months he's switched to talking the currency down, an effort boosted by the Federal Reserve's decision to begin tapering bond purchases.

...

Inflation unexpectedly accelerated in the final three months of last year to above the midpoint of the RBA's 2 percent to 3 percent target range. Part of the increase reflected the currency's drop that boosted import prices, and part was due to resurgent local costs.

...

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...on-aussie-lets-rba-hold-australia-credit.html

I guess we'll find out tomorrow. Central Banks ... :rolleyes:
 
Highly likely he'll bump up 0.25% I think.
The more margin RBA has to drop the more it will like it. This is a tiny opportunity to lift a little.
 
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