Integrated Research (IRI)

[finicky]

Took a bite at these on Monday 19th @ 1.055

Reasons are chart doesn't look too bad. Just reported FY13 was flat against FY12, but profit in H2 was a record. Prospects for earnings growth seem ok. Return on Equity (ROE) was 30% for FY13. Div was flat against FY12 but yield still ok at +4%, goes ex div 23/08/2013, that is have to buy Thurs 22nd to get the final FY13 div.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=IRI&E=ASX&N=749794

Included is a 5 year weekly chart for perspective. Probably no rush to get in. It wouldn't really surprise if the price has not finished correcting and $1 is revisited. A shock to the market generally could easily see it back to .90 imo, and even 70c is conceivable. I would be adding at both those levels probably.

However the weekly chart is showing a bullish cross of the MACD, and weekly candles have short ranges. There's at least a chance that the low was made by the weekly hammer candle back in March with tail at 90c.

IRI is also a stock that Motley Fool Australia recommended back in 05 Dec 2011 as BUY @ 0.44, and IRI has returned 144.5% since then (incl dividends) while the All ords has returned 26.5% (incl divs). They still have a BUY on it

Skaffold has rated this as an 'A' quality stock every year of this decade, currently A2, but sees it as well over-priced. Intrinsic value is predicted to rise but still values IRI at only 88c for expected FY15 performance! Just 2 analysts covering.

 

[J-Money]

How you feeling about this one at the moment Fin? I think the recent pullback in SP could present a decent buying op, but it comes after the CEO's rather abrupt resignation and Motley downgrading it to a HOLD.

 

[finicky]

Hi J-Money, haven't seen that downgrade to 'HOLD" from Motley Fool but will check that out. I did read a comment from Scott Phillips that MF is getting frustrated by the stagnation of earnings from IRI instead of the growth they've been promising. The abrupt change of CEO that you mention has got them stroking their chin too.

My fairly flimsy charting excuse for making an early first buy has evaporated with the breach of $1. Short term daily it looks like it might be gathering below 95 but the weekly looks shaky. My own approach will be to wait for further guidance from the chart or elsewhere before adding. I would rather wait and lose a bit of upside than try to pick the low here. But then, I'm already down around 10c, if I had none I might be adventurous and nibble but still be mentally prepared for initial losses. Don't buy unless at the very least it has a close above 95c imo. In short a gamble buying here, probably best to wait for a chart signal? Will be back on this thread if I'm buying

Edit: Yes I see you're right, Monday September 2, 2013, IRI demoted to HOLD, main reason being "the absence now of a CEO we know and trust"

 

[finicky]

That was way too fast for me. Gapped up and blew through arguably three short term resistance levels in one day of trading on Friday. Buyers responding to something in the Chairman's address or the AGM presentation released after trading closed Thursday. Maybe they liked the new M.D's CV, search me.

I will hope for a pullback as excitement ebbs.

One thing chairman said,

"The company is not providing market guidance on revenue or profit projections; however the October year to date results are ahead of the comparable period for both revenue and profit."

 

[finicky]

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[finicky]

More stagnation of profits instead of growth as would befit a high P/E stock. They say lumpy earnings, hard to predict those lumps. Motley Fool Share Advisor tipped this as a top dividend stock recently too. That was after upgrading it to a Buy from Hold. Bet they're pissed as they said they'd been in meetings with M.D. before announcing their upgrade to Buy. Must've got bluffed, lol.

Profit Guidance

Now that's a Hammer candlestick

 

[finicky]

[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_polaris.gif]

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[finicky]

Had a browse at Port Phillip Publishing today and one of the newsletters being spruiked was saying the below text. Maybe IRI conforms to the type of company he means? Don't understand the company myself - followed a Motley Fool Share Advisor tip after the chart seemed to be going the right way. Didn't have the fundamentals conviction to add when sp went lower. Down a bit today but looks likely to close at $2.30 or so
Not an immediate chart buy after swift rise, jmo

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[finicky]

Integrated Research (IRI) just gave profit guidance for fy18 after market close. Revenue will be flat against fy17 and profit up only modestly 1-5%
So confidently guessing the short term money won't like this and won't be leaving their money in a p/e = 25, p/b = 11 stock for a yoy growth result like that. Goody, because I'll be in for more if the price gets back to 2.50
Wilsons Asset Management published an initiating coverage of IRI early June advising SELL because they suspected a weak H2 result. They had a target of 2.65. They obviously have a high opinion of IRI, just too pricey. You can find their paper online - file too big to upload to SSt'kers forum.
Chart's been notably weak for a few months- the market is a level playing field and we have ASIC.