Impact of coming Chinese collapse?

C

Cheepo

New Member
I keep hearing of the coming Chinese collapse, mainly from jealous Americans :)

I don't particularly believe it, but what if it happens? It's true that nobody really knows how much debt there is, and all the data of the Chinese government are cooked. So, the question is, what will happen if the Chinese economy collapses, because of its huge debts, for example? Today I read that Chinese people will stop buying PM, and sell their PM, to pay off their mortgages and to try to maintain the same standard of living.

This makes sense, although I would have thought that the people would buy more PM because they would be afraid of the future (since they wouldn't' know what comes next: inflation? deflation? devaluation of the currency? more repression by the communist party? etc.).

What do you think would happen?
 
slightly OT, but who owns all this debt? I keep hearing about how much Chinese debt the US has, and it seems like every country has all this debt. Does anyone have a bunch of credit?
 
I thought the chineese had a lot of US debt. I heard that on the internet, and everything you hear on the Internet is true. My source... The Internet. I don't think anyone actually knows the true anymore lol!
 
Cheepo said:
I keep hearing of the coming Chinese collapse, mainly from jealous Americans :)

I don't particularly believe it, but what if it happens? It's true that nobody really knows how much debt there is, and all the data of the Chinese government are cooked. So, the question is, what will happen if the Chinese economy collapses, because of its huge debts, for example? Today I read that Chinese people will stop buying PM, and sell their PM, to pay off their mortgages and to try to maintain the same standard of living.

This makes sense, although I would have thought that the people would buy more PM because they would be afraid of the future (since they wouldn't' know what comes next: inflation? deflation? devaluation of the currency? more repression by the communist party? etc.).

What do you think would happen?
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All the Lunar lunatics will be stuck with coins worth less than they paid for them!
 
fishtaco said:
Cheepo said:
I keep hearing of the coming Chinese collapse, mainly from jealous Americans :)

I don't particularly believe it, but what if it happens? It's true that nobody really knows how much debt there is, and all the data of the Chinese government are cooked. So, the question is, what will happen if the Chinese economy collapses, because of its huge debts, for example? Today I read that Chinese people will stop buying PM, and sell their PM, to pay off their mortgages and to try to maintain the same standard of living.

This makes sense, although I would have thought that the people would buy more PM because they would be afraid of the future (since they wouldn't' know what comes next: inflation? deflation? devaluation of the currency? more repression by the communist party? etc.).

What do you think would happen?
Click to expand...

All the Lunar lunatics will be stuck with coins worth less than they paid for them!
Click to expand...
That's not how collecting works.
It is not the government that gives the coins extra value, it is the collectors.
If the government became extremely unpopular, they could be solid as a rock, coins worth spot minus.
 
They are burning the treasuries on U.S. real estate, industry and PMs. They will dispose of of it all and send much of QE inflation back home.
 
Cheepo said:
I keep hearing of the coming Chinese collapse, mainly from jealous Americans :)

I don't particularly believe it, but what if it happens? It's true that nobody really knows how much debt there is, and all the data of the Chinese government are cooked. So, the question is, what will happen if the Chinese economy collapses, because of its huge debts, for example? Today I read that Chinese people will stop buying PM, and sell their PM, to pay off their mortgages and to try to maintain the same standard of living.

This makes sense, although I would have thought that the people would buy more PM because they would be afraid of the future (since they wouldn't' know what comes next: inflation? deflation? devaluation of the currency? more repression by the communist party? etc.).

What do you think would happen?
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The Chinese might have a recession coming up but, collapse ? lol they hold reserves that any West country dream of..... they will challenge the current world currency in a very near future IMHO.
 
Nobody really knows what is going to happen or when it is going to happen but something big is going to happen. Financial systems around the globe are insolvent like never before.
 
The estimate is 4 trillion in reserves. They also have a totalitarian government with a population trained, mostly from birth, to follow the party line with enthusiasm. They can order everyone to give jobs, take jobs at whatever rate, share food, hang banksters and redistribute wealth any day of the week.

They also have a great big pile of gold and a lot of independent trading partners and allies.They won't be planning anything more than a slowdown so that they can set themselves up for the next stage of their development.

Twenty years ago, Deng Xiaoping, the architect of modern China, had cautioned his people to build their global power patiently: "Hide your brightness, bide your time."
http://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/a...2/dragons-tail-lucky-country-after-china-boom
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Deng Xiaoping led China til 1992. A 20 year wait is small time.

and

According to the version of history popular among the Chinese elite, their country is emerging from a "century of humiliation." For a hundred years China was degraded, bullied and torn apart by foreign imperialists. The British demanded punitive concessions after their victory in the Opium Wars; the French seized control of territories that now make up northern Vietnam; and Macau was lost to Portugal in the Treaty of Peking. The deepest wounds were inflicted by the Japanese during the decades that stretched from the annexure of Taiwan to the rape of Nanking and the ferocious policy of Sanko Sakusen ("kill all, loot all, burn all") that led to the deaths of millions of Chinese civilians towards the end of World War II. Remembrance of this period serves as a focal point for Chinese nationalism. The Chinese Communist Party uses the sense of victimisation to bolster support, crediting itself with pulling China out of the century of humiliation and deriving its own legitimacy from a national narrative of loss and redemption known as fuxing or "rejuvenation."
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Pragmatism is the final strength that will make this China's century
.
It doesn't matter whether the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice. - Deng Xiaoping
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It's not so simple. There are a lot of public protests by people, for example against corruption of civil servants. The Chinese people are very strong willed, they are not obedient as in the past. They are very much aware of what is going on in the world, and thanks to social media they are able to mobilise themselves. The argument is that the banks are incredibly highly indebted, there is a huge housing bubble, there are huge debts by the state, public companies, private companies, etc. There is also a "social contract" whereby the government provides economic growth, and the people shut up and enjoy that growth. Now the economic growth is slowing. Are people going to continue shutting up? Not if you look at growing public protests. Chinese friends of mine (who live in China) are worried about the future. While they say that the 90s and 2000s were great, and people expected and enjoyed prosperity, now nobody expects prosperity in the years to come. And without prosperity, people expect more opposition to the communist country. To me China is much less stable than you people think. Though the fact that the government controls a very big chunk of the national economy should help...
 
Yeah the GFC was created when the US investment banks scimmed a ton of money off smaller banks, home owners (high interest rates and default penalties) and made a killing selling the high risk debt as derivatives to the investment community (ie super funds, investment groups etc) and also insured their currently held debts. IE the owners of the investment banks that survived (Merril Lynch and Bear Sterns were not quick enough to keep up with the game) and made a LOT of money.

What this means is that a lot of people lost their life savings and governments who financed bailouts fell into large debt (to the big bankers...). So the GFC was a transfer of wealth from home owners, workers and small investors into a few large banks and their shareholders.

China was effected as well. The western markets made up of the burnt home owners, small investors and workers, were no longer buying. As the west (especially the US) recovers (ie unemployment goes down, disposable income increases etc) demand will appear again for Chinese products. This will have a positive effect on economies around the planet and eventually will increase demand for commodities and lastly for gold and silver.

If the increase in demand is too slow and the Chinese economy suffers from a bad debt based collapse in its own banking then that will set the whole recovery back for everyone. Commodity prices will drop and, if the chinese yuan falters, they will have to sell of foreign interests (like farms, mines etc) to get the strong dollars to pay off their foreign debtors (as the yuan will be too weak). This sell off, along with reduced demand fro the products of farming and mining, will cause a further decreased in commodity and produce prices which will cause exploitation economies (like Australia) to suffer badly.

Traditionally, exploiter economies (like Europe, UK and USA) should be able to pick up a lot of great assets at firesale prices in this time. Eg those nice rich US investment banks should be able to make a killing in the depressed share market.
 
the is bail out everywhere can be implemented in many ways. States can pick up the pieces.

SELL those US Treasuries and Bonds !!! before any collapse. :lol:
 
rainy day said:
So the government, whom are meant to be our servants, have enslaved us all. I thought slavery was outlawed?
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not if you volunteer ;)
 
rodmadman said:
Sources please......?
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20110328-soy-sauce-group.jpg
 
If the real question is, will the Chinese flood the market with pm's if their economy collapsed....then I would have to speculate that it really depends on whether you mean gold or silver, in the short or long term, and whether you are referring to large financial institutions in China or people who have silver and / or gold in China. From what I understand, many Chinese do not own any significant amount because many are not wealthy.

Silver may not function in the same way as gold in a collapsed economy. It's perhaps the reason why CB's as just one example, do not hold any silver.




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