IMF walks out of Greece talks

^^^
True... but its also fantastic oppourtunity for innovators and clever folk.
This calamity SHOULD cleanse the country of the incompetence and cronyism that has brought it to this juncture.

Without the money to import foriegn goods & services, Smart, industrious Greeks will have the chance to start home grown alternatives.

Like you said, they've already had their referendum... it was the election they were voted in on.
 
Yeah but regardless other markets in the region will be open, so will fx, bonds, PM markets etc - normally one would think the euro would slide against the other major currencies in such a circumstance, but in this crazy illiquid and irrational trading world it may rise as if a burden has been lifted from the Eurozone.
 
Photographs of people lining up at ATMs and (soon) rioting in front of closed banks make for attention-grabbing headlines, but the impact would pale in comparison to the potential downside for counterparties to the Greek default.

To bring back one of the buzzwords of the 2007-2010 era, "financial contagion".

We're going to find out if the CDS (credit default swap) sellers/underwriters are over-exposed just like AIG back in 2009.

Regardless of whether a Greek default leads to Grexit, the Euro will languish in the short-term especially against the USD and CHF.

The pressure will mount on any peripheral Europe nation with large sovereign debts to service. To resurrect another unwelcome term, the PIIGS. In no particular order, Italy, Spain, Portugal.

A Greek sovereign default would probably slow down Euro-denominated monetary velocity all across Europe. European equities cooling, businesses reducing inventory, putting off expansion, cutting down on headcounts.

The big 'unless' is the ECB is willing to pursue full-bore Quantitative Easing, which is far from being out of the question as long.

Greece as an economy is a minnow compared to the major players in Europe...but so was Thailand back in 1997 right before the Asian Financial Crisis. Thats the insidious latent power of the contagion phenomenon.

As for gold & silver, who the heck even knows anymore?

I don't claim to be any of expert on the Greek sovereign debt or Eurozone Monetary Policy. This just my 0.02.
 
If Greece were kicked out of the Euro, one of the first things the ECB would do is crank up QE to prevent a credit crunch throughout the Eurozone. I'll be watching Euribor, bonds and the Euro very carefully throughout the next week.
 
Caput Lupinum said:
If Greece were kicked out of the Euro, one of the first things the ECB would do is crank up QE to prevent a credit crunch throughout the Eurozone. I'll be watching Euribor, bonds and the Euro very carefully throughout the next week.
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I shall watch Gold.
 
BBC reporter is saying the ECB will cut the ELA today

:o

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33303304

The European Central Bank's governing council is expected to turn off Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) for Greek banks at its meeting later today, according to well-placed sources.
So unless Greek savers miraculously decide to cease withdrawing cash from their accounts, Greek banks would find themselves in serious straits as soon as Monday - because the banks have become dependent on ELA, approved by the ECB but supplied by the Bank of Greece, to provide the cash to depositors who want their money back.
"We think the Greek government will have no choice but to announce a bank holiday on Monday, pending the introduction of capital controls," said a source.
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Eureka Moments said:
Caput Lupinum said:
If Greece were kicked out of the Euro, one of the first things the ECB would do is crank up QE to prevent a credit crunch throughout the Eurozone. I'll be watching Euribor, bonds and the Euro very carefully throughout the next week.
Click to expand...

I shall watch Gold.
Click to expand...

I'm going to watch a repeat of Groundhog Day :)
 
whinfell said:
Eureka Moments said:
Caput Lupinum said:
If Greece were kicked out of the Euro, one of the first things the ECB would do is crank up QE to prevent a credit crunch throughout the Eurozone. I'll be watching Euribor, bonds and the Euro very carefully throughout the next week.
Click to expand...

I shall watch Gold.
Click to expand...

I'm going to watch a repeat of Groundhog Day :)
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I got you babe... :lol:
 
The European Central Bank is expected to end emergency lending to Greece's banks on Sunday, the BBC understands.

The country's banks depend on the ECB's Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA). Its governing council is meeting later.

Greece will probably have to "announce a bank holiday on Monday, pending the introduction of capital controls", a source told the BBC's Robert Peston.

The bailout for heavily indebted Greece expires on Tuesday and talks have broken down.

Greek banks would find themselves in serious straits as soon as Monday if the ECB went ahead and cut the lifeline, the BBC economics editor says.

Capital controls are restrictions on how much customers can withdraw from banks. Until now, the Greek government has signalled that it does not want to impose such controls.

In recent weeks, Greeks have withdrawn billions of euros from banks, and long queues formed at cashpoints on Saturday, amid fears that banks would not open on Monday.

The ECB has been sending emergency funds on a daily basis to the Greek central bank, which then allocates it to the high-street banks.

Grexit risk looms

Austria's Finance Minister Hans Joerg Sche
Bbc news
 
If I recall correctly, didn't Russia lend a few billion to Cyprus on reasonably good terms. May sound a bit dramatic but there is a precedent. If Greece looses all emergency funding she is in some serious trouble and quickly.

As much as I believe Greece will be better off in the long term without taking on more debt from the ECB, the rate of social collapse and hardship would be enormous. They must have another source of funding up their sleeve to play such a dangerouse game of cat and mouse with the money they desperately need. Remember it's not the money they don't want - it's the terms....Enter Russia and her cashed up friends to the east.
 
Caput Lupinum said:
So anyone want to take a guess how the markets will react tomorrow at the opening of the European session?
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Sunday trading has already seen German index drop close to 4%, I'm sure the rest will follow (if not, drop more) tomorrow
 
The crazy thing is that the ECB owes Greece 1.9B but won't use that for debt payments and won't release it to pay the 1.6B owed without a deal...that seems like a pretty reasonable request by the Greeks, they aren't even asking to hold the money so there's no risk of them keeping it, they just want to use the money they are entitled to for the next debt payment.
 
ok so there is a difference between ending it, maintaining it at its current levels and raising it. the ECB has said it will maintain it at its current levels

http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2015/html/pr150628.en.html

PRESS RELEASE
28 June 2015 - ELA to Greek banks maintained at its current level

ECB takes note of decision on Greek referendum and the non-prolongation of the EU adjustment programme
ECB will work closely with Bank of Greece to maintain financial stability
Emergency liquidity assistance maintained at Friday's (26 June 2015) level
Governing Council stands ready to review decision
Governing Council closely monitoring situation and potential implications for monetary policy stance
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank today welcomed the commitment by ministers from euro area Member States to take all necessary measures to further improve the resilience of euro area economies and to stand ready to take decisive steps to strengthen Economic and Monetary Union.

Following the decision by the Greek authorities to hold a referendum and the non-prolongation of the EU adjustment programme for Greece, the Governing Council declared it will work closely with the Bank of Greece to maintain financial stability.

Given the current circumstances, the Governing Council decided to maintain the ceiling to the provision of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to Greek banks at the level decided on Friday (26 June 2015).

The Governing Council stands ready to reconsider its decision.

Mario Draghi, ECB President, said: "We continue to work closely with the Bank of Greece and we strongly endorse the commitment of Member States in pledging to take action to address the fragilities of euro area economies."

Yannis Stournaras, Governor of the Bank of Greece, said: "The Bank of Greece, as a member of the Eurosystem, will take all measures necessary to ensure financial stability for Greek citizens in these difficult circumstances."

The Governing Council is closely monitoring the situation in financial markets and the potential implications for the monetary policy stance and for the balance of risks to price stability in the euro area. The Governing Council is determined to use all the instruments available within its mandate.

For media enquiries, please contact William Lelieveldt, tel.: +49 69 1344 7316
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If there has been a draw down in funds over the weekend question is if the top up on friday was enough to cover this weekend
 
sterling-nz said:
whinfell said:
Why is it "Fantastic news!!!", TheEnd? :/
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I do not think it is fantastic:( .
I find it very very interesting from an outside perspective.
Having suffered poverty in my youth i can also empathize with what some of these poor folk are about to suffer.
It is all but final BUT NOT QUITE and should the default occur and the bank runs start, and then banks run out of money, and then shops run out of food and then police do not get paid and on and on.
The ramifications will most likely be massive.
We can get a vague idea from what occurred in Argentina, the big difference being ARGENTINA HAD HUGE AMOUNTS OF NATURAL RESOURCES and Greece does not.
To those who "think this is fantastic" i can only guess that you are not in Greece and do not have any true understanding of what it is like NOT KNOWING where the next meal is coming from.
For those involved (should the default occur and banks run out of cash) it will quickly develop into times of scarcity of resources and a fight for what little there is.
Very unfortunate , but something had to give and given time and suffering they will eventually rebuild and be in a far better position to now, though it will take a great deal of creativity.
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O.k I apoligise its not 'fantastic' news.......But this outcome could have been resolved months ago.

Its taken '5 whole months' to come to the same conslusion that they new was going to happen.

And that is a Greek exit from the Euro?

They new they could'nt afford all the bailots in the first place???
 
The ECB could still be pulling the rug under the greeks if the bank of greece has requested more money and they have rejected the raising it instead leaving it at its current level.
 
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