I'll just come out and say it...

Roswell Crash Survivor

Roswell Crash Survivor

Well-Known Member
Silver Stacker
I consider a second bear raid on the gold price within this quarter to be a real possibility.

Whatever forces started the near-unopposed precipitous 20% drop in USD prices last week obviously has access to massive financial resources.

We're talking resources only found in an entire system of Reserve Banks and the IMF.

For the last price decline to end so abruptly near USD1,350 it looks more like an ambush than a retreat.

To use a pop culture metaphor, its like seeing Gozilla come ashore, wreck the seaport...and disappear without a trace.

Godzilla isn't calling it a day; hes burrowing, biding his time and will pop up to wreck havoc.

The recent modest 'recovery' is also nearly unopposed, another textbook bull trap feature.

Buyers' queues in front of bullion dealers and jeweler are an anticipated effect.

If this 'Godzilla' drives spot gold to USD$1,000/oz.t we can expect to see queues of loose-handed fiat-price-speculators trying to offload their gold.

You can expect the '6-o'clock TV News' cameras to show up if that happens.

The conceivable objective isn't to make gold bulls generate a loss; but to convince the public at large that gold is not a financial 'safe haven'.

In other words, any move would be about extending the Usurper Reigh of Fiat by discrediting the legitimacy of gold's claim to the Throne of True Money.

I'd much prefer to be wrong than right on this, but its a possibility all of us should consider.
 
I concur. That was my feeling after hearing about all the queues and shortages. So what if there's no physical, the big boys play with paper and do whatever the hell they like. Doubt very much that they care about any possible disconnect between the two. They press a few buttons, make a few mill and then continue with their day wearing a very expensive suit and a highly offensive smug grin!

"Hey, these PM idiots didn't seem to mind that we smashed the prices. In fact, they're celebrating and saying it's a "gift" even though we wiped a nice percentage off their net worth. The ones that refer to themselves as "strong hands" will never sell so we can continue to shake everyone else out. We made millions in a few seconds... Lets do it again! WAHOOOO"
 
I have to admit this is a faint possibility. Seeing how public saw the recent gold price drop as a "bargain" instead of scaring them away from it. Would be interesting to see what gold permabulls have to say if prices drop even lower than 1000/ozt, and stayed there for a couple of months (maybe even longer). This may force the speculators to cut their losses and sell their gold at a discounted price. Sure supply will dry up, but what if they can force you to give up your gold? Talk about modern day gold confiscation! Haha!
 
Well over a hundred emails and phone calls this past week from customers clamouring for bargain price bullion. Most were interested in the basics; bullion with low premiums such as generic kilo bars, 1oz gold cast bars and 50cents pieces.
If I could buy 2000 oz of generic silver right now I would sell out in a flash
Unfortunately stackers here are not easily influence to swap their precious metals for fiat. :(
99% were buyers, only one sold me some gold.
All this unfilled demand should push spot price upwards however I am often wrong making predictions :)
 
Aurora et luna said:
Well over a hundred emails and phone calls this past week from customers clamouring for bargain price bullion. Most were interested in the basics; bullion with low premiums such as generic kilo bars, 1oz gold cast bars and 50cents pieces.
If I could buy 2000 oz of generic silver right now I would sell out in a flash
Unfortunately stackers here are not easily influence to swap their precious metals for fiat. :(
99% were buyers, only one sold me some gold.
All this unfilled demand should push spot price upwards however I am often wrong making predictions :)
Click to expand...

Aurora

Could you comment more about what silver bullion coins were selling strongly??

Cheers

H

PS: Love your web-site Steve and the fact that you introduce your-self on the home page! Excellent stuff! :)

http://www.auroraetluna.com/
 
I thought about this in advance of the 12th price slam.

While not ruling it out , I think the low at least for gold is in.

If I'm wrong then the gap between paper and physical just gets greater and must push physical higher.
 
If it falls to $1000 I don't think people will be running to sell(those holding physical that is)
 
Holdfast said:
Aurora et luna said:
Well over a hundred emails and phone calls this past week from customers clamouring for bargain price bullion. Most were interested in the basics; bullion with low premiums such as generic kilo bars, 1oz gold cast bars and 50cents pieces.
If I could buy 2000 oz of generic silver right now I would sell out in a flash
Unfortunately stackers here are not easily influence to swap their precious metals for fiat. :(
99% were buyers, only one sold me some gold.
All this unfilled demand should push spot price upwards however I am often wrong making predictions :)
Click to expand...

Aurora

Could you comment more about what silver bullion coins were selling strongly??

Cheers

H

PS: Love your web-site Steve and the fact that you introduce your-self on the home page! Excellent stuff! :)

http://www.auroraetluna.com/
Click to expand...

People aren't fussy however I don't have much in stock; only what I buy on the secondary market or buybacks from other stackers.
I boycotted the Perth Mint and have not purchase any silver from any of their distributors since August last year.
Cheers
 
No one really knows what game TheFED are really playing......Maybe they just wanted to drive the price down thruough paper manipulation just so they can buy Cypres's Gold as cheap as possible..... Or maybe they did it just to shake out as many weak hands as possible and make Gold to be seen as a bad assest.....Either way something big is going on.
 
I'd say that a good indication that the market has bottomed is when a prominent silver or gold 'guru' or even youtuber decides to throw in the towel and tell us they're fed up with the market and selling their metal.
 
Also, I predicted months ago that if the Obama gets his way and raises or even completley removes the debt ceiling it may temporarily cause PMs to devalue because there will be no U.S default for many years later.
 
The newbies and the ones in it for fast cash will be flushed out but we all need to remember to think long term because that is most likely the reason why we started buying/stacking

Long term gain will most likely come with shot term pain
 
Look at Abe of Japan's policy of doubling the currency supply. Not only does this in effect 'water down' the buying power of the yen so debt can be repaid faster, but punishes savers who have 'stored wealth' in the yen as their 'savings' are eaten up by inflation. The central bank's hope is that this inflation pressures savers to quickly 'invest' their wealth into shares or at least increase spending on goods & services in order to stimulate the national economy. They may as well use the power of their yen before it's watered down anymore. The last thing the central banks want is this wealth to be locked away where they can't control or influence it, in physical precious metals. I'd be interested to know what the demand for Gold was like in Japan just prior to this smackdown; bet you it was unprecedented. As we all know, the futures market on metals as it stands, manipulated by the bullion banks of the world, represent's a means to apply a dilution effect across all physical precious metals, just like Abe's yen printing.
 
House said:
So what if there's no physical, the big boys play with paper and do whatever the hell they like. Doubt very much that they care about any possible disconnect between the two. They press a few buttons, make a few mill and then continue with their day wearing a very expensive suit and a highly offensive smug grin!
Click to expand...

I know bugger all about ETF paper trading but isn't the paper a type of proxy for the real metal?
If this is so, what would happen if some of these traders wanted to settle with physical supply?
Does that affect what you are saying?
 
Alfie said:
House said:
So what if there's no physical, the big boys play with paper and do whatever the hell they like. Doubt very much that they care about any possible disconnect between the two. They press a few buttons, make a few mill and then continue with their day wearing a very expensive suit and a highly offensive smug grin!
Click to expand...

I know bugger all about ETF paper trading but isn't the paper a type of proxy for the real metal?
If this is so, what would happen if some of these traders wanted to settle with physical supply?
Does that affect what you are saying?
Click to expand...


Even if every paper player demanded delivery of physical, I would take a guess that the contract they entered states in the fine print that the issuer can settle the contract with cash even if physical is demanded.

So I don't think there will ever be a default, as such.
 
Argentum
WOW!
If that's right then there could easily be a disconnect between physical and paper, can anyone else verify this?
 
a lot of people that i know who have paper contract long gold position have got their margin call, and their long position forced to closed (with unimaginable loss). so that is will be the first main purpose of the manipulation. (transfer of wealth).

if you see all of the charts, before it goes up higher.. it usually going through some dramatic drop.. to cut into everyone stop loss etc...

those who hold physical.. get ready for some more turbulence before some clear weather ahead..
 
Alfie said:
Argentum
WOW!
If that's right then there could easily be a disconnect between physical and paper, can anyone else verify this?
Click to expand...

Most recent example was ABN Amro last month. They sent out a letter saying that clients PM's were safe but they would not deliver the physical if requested. Instead, the account will be settled at the bid or offer price in the 'market' :/

snmyJGJ.png


Translation provided by Le Google for those of you that didn't understand all that bank jargon;

Changes in the handling of orders in bullion

On 1 April 2013,. ABN AMRO to another custodian for the precious metals gold, silver, platinum and palladium. This we your investments in precious metals otherwise handle and administer. In this letter you can read more about it.

What will change?

With the transition to the new custodian will include the following from 1 April 2013 for you to change.
You can have your precious metals to your investment account no longer physically let us extradite
Gives you order in precious metals via the giro ABN AMRO? Then the settlement of orders that henceforth performed at bid prices or at the offer prices prevailing on the market for precious metals. No longer based on the mid-price, as you used to.
The bid price is the price that merchants offer for precious metals that are offered for sale, so if you sell.
The ask price is the price at which traders want to sell precious metals, so if you buy.
We are the positions in these precious metals in your investment statements against future bid prices appreciate

You can read more about investing in precious metals in Chapter 4 (Supplementary conditions for investing in precious metals) of the Conditions Beleggersgiro. You can find these at abnamro.nl / Conditions invest

Should I do anything?

You need do nothing. We ensure that we have your investments in precious metals now the new way to handle and administer.
Click to expand...
 
This means we are suckers if we think that that buying up physical metal has any influence on the ETF world because they use fiat to settle trades in paper and have no need of supply.
However they have total influence of the price paid for physical metal, the only commonality is the word silver, is this how you see it House?
 
Jim Siinclair's view:

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

In our world of shameful crimes and lies hiding in plain sight there is no law that demands the funds raised by selling gold you leased has to go into US Federal Treasury instruments. You might use it to finance almost about anything. Do you think the exact people that gave you LIBOR are bastions of ethics in how the money is used from the sale of the leased gold? Clearly they are not.

As such, gold leasing has become a method of financing whatever you please without reference to having to be in the gold business or using the funds toward purchases of Treasury instruments. In fact Treasury instruments are not purchased because there is no law or regulation in the OTC derivative type business. The OTC derivative market for gold leasing is a pure Wild West. You can do anything you please with the funds derived from the sale of the gold. As far as hedging the sale by being long paper gold, few gold banks seem to recommend or participate on that side. Many of our legacy leases are made up of bankrupt gold lease specific performance agreements that are unfunded.

The typical gold lease from a central bank has a duration of only one year. So many central banks were willing to lease gold that the gold banks undertook themselves to guarantee a rollover of the leases so that the client had no concern of a short period for repayment and renewal.

As both gold banks and central banks began to experience losses and recognized their real risk of the counter party to the lease, this business began to slow down. That slow down was in the form of a growing reluctance by central banks to lease with the exception of the central bank that most wished to apply downward pressure on gold.

These transactions, which are best described as OTC special performance derivative contracts, began to go into disarray. Lease gold right now still shows as owned by the central bank regardless of the ability to financially repurchase and return the gold to the central bank via the gold bank.

Here is more disappearing gold camouflaged by useless, non functioning, OTC derivative paper.

This is another reason why the gold banks attacked the paper gold market to decrease the price. They intended to have this depreciation of price drive the buyers away from the market. They were correct butt only in paper and not in physical gold. Physical is in demand as an asset of savings brought about by the worldwide writing in of the bail-in method revealed by Ms. Lagarde of the IMF and the young Dutch Minister of Finance over the Cyprus planned bail-in and confiscation of depositor's money.

The physical market for gold is going to become the source of price as the paper market is revealed to be the fraud that it has always been. Simply put, there is no gold whatsoever in any paper gold contract of any form. Much of the leased gold is simply gone never to be identified again.

The death of the paper gold market that cannot deliver is the both of the emancipation price of gold that will surprise even those most positive bull on the metal.
Click to expand...
 
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