If stacking for security, when will you spend it?

S

SteveS

Member
I am considering getting into PMs as a security measure, consequently I am not so focused on guessing where the price might go.

Basically, I think it is prudent to believe another major, international economic crisis will occur and having some off-the-radar funds that could be traded might be useful. I know this is the reason some other people get into PMs, too.

However, it begs the questions, "What might the next economic crisis look like?" and "How bad would things have to get before you started to use your stack?"

The first question intrigues me the most. I am 60yo and will soon become a self-funded retiree. I have no debts and own my own home. I have a reasonable amount in super, probably enough to live on as things stand, perhaps topped-up by downsizing our home to release some equity.

My own thoughts on a things that could go wrong would include lousy super returns, a falling house market and increasing inflation. Because some of my super is in the UK (but most of it here in Oz), a weakening of the GBP would be another possible negative. If all of these happened together, I'd be in trouble.

What do the folks on here think? What does your "SHTF" scenario look like, and how likely do you think it to be?

A final question, in such a scenario: how would PMs be used? Would high street buyers still operate? Would you barter, or do you think a PM black market would arise? How would we actually use our PMs?
 
1929 Wall Street Stock Market Crash

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJpLMvgUXe8[/youtube]
 
Thinking 'SHTF' - what you're used to now will be very different. In economic breakdown civil unrest/violence, is likely. Perhaps many retailers have to close their shop front for safety. With official currency devaluing, you'd imagine businesses would love to move goods in exchange for payment that's rising in value, ie PM's. Check out what's happening now in Venezuela - it'd be nice to not have to line up for scarce product with currency when you can find a special back door deal for PM's.
Definitely speculative though, as to what happens here.
 
SteveS said:
I am considering getting into PMs as a security measure, consequently I am not so focused on guessing where the price might go.

Basically, I think it is prudent to believe another major, international economic crisis will occur and having some off-the-radar funds that could be traded might be useful. I know this is the reason some other people get into PMs, too.

However, it begs the questions, "What might the next economic crisis look like?" and "How bad would things have to get before you started to use your stack?"

The first question intrigues me the most. I am 60yo and will soon become a self-funded retiree. I have no debts and own my own home. I have a reasonable amount in super, probably enough to live on as things stand, perhaps topped-up by downsizing our home to release some equity.

My own thoughts on a things that could go wrong would include lousy super returns, a falling house market and increasing inflation. Because some of my super is in the UK (but most of it here in Oz), a weakening of the GBP would be another possible negative. If all of these happened together, I'd be in trouble.

What do the folks on here think? What does your "SHTF" scenario look like, and how likely do you think it to be?

A final question, in such a scenario: how would PMs be used? Would high street buyers still operate? Would you barter, or do you think a PM black market would arise? How would we actually use our PMs?
Click to expand...

As far as the "SHTF" would start and develop and the day to day nuts and bolts being out played no one really knows.

But for me to have access to "supplies" which I think could help me in any and all scenarios gives me some peace of mind and that is what owning PM's is mostly about for me (insurance)

Maybe PM's will not help you at all but maybe that could not only get you a good feed but could even save your life.

I like you have no debt having some "lazy" cash lying around so why not expand your perimeter giving you a bigger buffer zone real or imaged,after all it is about finding or buying peace of mind.

As I said the other day if I had "10K" to spend I would do something like this -

# 5K in Gold being say 50g Valcambi divisible gold bar and or 1/10oz gold coins.
# 3K in Silver in generic 1oz rounds/round 50c/pre/post decimal silver.
# 2K in cash in $5/10/20 notes.

or something very similar but always having PM's and Cash in small denominations.

Personally I really like the idea of doing this knowing that you have a small mobile and versatile "SHTF" holdings so that I can go on living my life day to day not constantly giving my thoughts to anxiety about what if this or that happens.

I reckon a good test is that I often forget that I have it "buried" in the backyard which screams to me that what I have done is working very well for me,let other people do the worrying and I will do the living.

I hope this help in some way :)
 
id stay away from silver and just stack a small portion in gold, silver for fun.

You are a little older than me and this is my opinion, Your house, how big is it, do you need it so big? Why not sell it and buy a smaller one, nice one but smaller, will give you a little cash. (House are illiquid) price might fall but it will come up, but have smaller amount tied up is a good good start.

I went from 4 bedroom house to a two bedroom. Though if you have extra room, you could always get decent income by renting out the room for cash. I have an older friend who did that, lives in Kensington (near Uni). His wife passed away and kids moved out.

So he ended up renting a room out to Ph.D. Student, when he first did it, I though he was silly, he didn't need the money. Now he been doing it for years now, and I don't think he needs the money, but just extra cash and for friendship only rent to Ph.D. Student, usually well behaved. The current student a recommendation from the last student (Ph.D. Are a little older and they study longer) I think he has done a deal, where she does some house work, shopping and gets reduced rent. Works out for both of them.

As for the rest, mate people at 60 are still healthy, it's not like yesteryear, retire than die within few years. Any economic crash in the next few year you can ride it out, even if it take 5 or 10 years.

You still have time on your side. A paper loss is a paper loss unless you capitalise it. Just hold a physical position say 10% all up in, gold, some US currency and Chinese currency, in a vault or safe deposit box. The three will hedge each other.


FYI
In a real shtf beginning ie power generation is out (for whatever reason, with or without war) no one will give a dam about gold and silver.
But if you are desperate and willing to pay what over the top you might find someone with food willing to accept gold. But I doubt it becuase everything will be looted and unless you are willing to use violence.

People who have prepped and gone underground, well how are you going to find them.

Now if you don't believe in shtf will occur, like me in our life time and it just a next recession, don't worry about it too much.
 
Our food supply is a long way from the cities.
If our petrol supply chain is broken?
 
Ipv6Ready said:
i.......Now if you don't believe in shtf will occur, like me in our life time and it just a next recession, don't worry about it too much.
Click to expand...

Thanks for your input, but my mind is made up regarding having an emergency PM stack. I don't see too many downsides and, at the very least, it might alleviate some of my paranoia!

As for downsizing, that is already part of my plan (as per my original post). The issue isn't so much about having enough money per se, as having funds in several different forms, just in case.

Obviously, this 'prepper' strategy must take into account HOW the PMs might help in a SHTF scenario, hence my question.
 
SteveS said:
What typically happens to PM prices in an ultra high-inflation scenario?
Click to expand...

Currency loses value quickly while physical goods hold or increase in value because supply of currency rises too quickly.
PM's are more convenient stores of value than many physical goods - so value of PM's rises versus currency and many physical goods.
 
There are lots of differrent SHTF scenarios that range in flavour and severity. It's hard to know which because although we can see the financial system is broken, the way in which it inevitably breaks down still depends on decisions yet to be made by the powers that be.

To boil it down to simple approach - yes, stack because it's a good idea with trouble ahead.

As for when to sell, for me it's that point during/after the crisis where it finally looks like there might be light at the end of the tunnel and there is a new (or restabilised) form of fiat in circulation. (Ideally, gold backed but who knows if we will ever see that again)

Good luck. If your eyes are open you're way ahead of most.
 
If your 60 and no longer work and the kids have moved on, then consider getting out of the suburbs and buying a country acreage retreat. Stock it with food, vegie garden, chooks, ect and become more self sufficient. Stack some PMs too and don't forget to buy guns to protect yourself. That's the best SHTF strategy imo and the quiet peaceful lifestyle is great for ones well being too.
 
Skyrocket said:
If your 60 and no longer work and the kids have moved on, then consider getting out of the suburbs and buying a country acreage retreat. Stock it with food, vegie garden, chooks, ect and become more self sufficient.......
Click to expand...

Totally agree. This is another strategy that doesn't have much in the way of downsides. It also provides recreation and exercise. I doubt we'll go for acreage (been there, done that, still have the bad back) but a large peri-urban block (want to be reasonably close to a good hospital) would enable a fair bit of self-sufficiency.
 
My shtf scenario isn't the same case in what's happening in Venezuela. I believe later (not sooner) that there will be a global Monetary collapse. Inflation will go through the roof and gold will go with it. My cash will be spent to acquire as much food as it's worth and my stocking of food will not be touched until there is absolutely no more cash or food for me to buy. My PM's are meant to be traded in for the new fiat currency to replace the current.

I have enough food for about 1yrs worth to feed a family of 6. I will have enough cash to hopefully support the initial year of food to be purchased, that's if hyperinflation doesn't kick in. Hoping the govt figures this out in 2yrs or I'm sol.
 
SteveS said:
What typically happens to PM prices in an ultra high-inflation scenario?
Click to expand...

Google Venezuela for your answer.

I believe that the government is restricting ordinary punters from buying Gold with red tape and higher prices knowing that owning Gold gives you the independants that they want to deny you.

Instead of buying Gold people are being forced to buy cars,etc to secure their wealth.

Maybe consider buying a - Get Out Of Dodge - type vehicle like a AMG G63 Mercedes :cool: or a 200 Series Toyota Landcruiser that will spread your wealth in any hyper inflation situation plus giving you some great emergency wheels.
 
brexitbaby said:
SteveS said:
What typically happens to PM prices in an ultra high-inflation scenario?
Click to expand...

Google Venezuela for your answer.

I believe that the government is restricting ordinary punters from buying Gold with red tape and higher prices knowing that owning Gold gives you the independants that they want to deny you.
Click to expand...

But to buy staples you need to convert it to money
 
Ipv6Ready said:
But to buy staples you need to convert it to money
Click to expand...

That's one of my questions. You might be right, but maybe a barter (black market) economy would also appear. In such a scenario, I'm guessing PM prices would be set by the buyer & seller in each barter transaction, rather than any official price.
 
I believe that there would be lots of gold buyers as the rich would be trying to convert their
Currency to something more viable.
 
Peter said:
Our food supply is a long way from the cities.
If our petrol supply chain is broken?
Click to expand...

Remember when Sydney was surrounded by market gardens? There were lots of them out near the airport. It wasn' that long ago that much of Sydney's veggies were grown locally.
 
Ipv6Ready said:
id stay away from silver and just stack a small portion in gold, silver for fun.

You are a little older than me and this is my opinion, Your house, how big is it, do you need it so big? Why not sell it and buy a smaller one, nice one but smaller, will give you a little cash. (House are illiquid) price might fall but it will come up, but have smaller amount tied up is a good good start.

I went from 4 bedroom house to a two bedroom. Though if you have extra room, you could always get decent income by renting out the room for cash. I have an older friend who did that, lives in Kensington (near Uni). His wife passed away and kids moved out.

So he ended up renting a room out to Ph.D. Student, when he first did it, I though he was silly, he didn't need the money. Now he been doing it for years now, and I don't think he needs the money, but just extra cash and for friendship only rent to Ph.D. Student, usually well behaved. The current student a recommendation from the last student (Ph.D. Are a little older and they study longer) I think he has done a deal, where she does some house work, shopping and gets reduced rent. Works out for both of them.

As for the rest, mate people at 60 are still healthy, it's not like yesteryear, retire than die within few years. Any economic crash in the next few year you can ride it out, even if it take 5 or 10 years.

You still have time on your side. A paper loss is a paper loss unless you capitalise it. Just hold a physical position say 10% all up in, gold, some US currency and Chinese currency, in a vault or safe deposit box. The three will hedge each other.


FYI
In a real shtf beginning ie power generation is out (for whatever reason, with or without war) no one will give a dam about gold and silver.
But if you are desperate and willing to pay what over the top you might find someone with food willing to accept gold. But I doubt it becuase everything will be looted and unless you are willing to use violence.

People who have prepped and gone underground, well how are you going to find them.

Now if you don't believe in shtf will occur, like me in our life time and it just a next recession, don't worry about it too much.
Click to expand...

What if you are very very wrong like millions before you and lost :/

Stay away from Silver - I don't think so because - or no one will give a damn about Gold or Silver - rubbish - only if they have no knowledge of history.

# 1g 24ct Gold = $60.00

# 1oz .999 Silver = $30.00
# Round 50c = $10.00
# Post Florin = $4.00
# Post Shilling/Sixpence/Threepence = ??

# and cash in small denominations of course.

Just having Gold in a gram could be problematic because in the short term some people will still like to take local AU maybe changing as time moves forward with some strictly wanting Gold with a Silver filler having a knowledge of the history of precious metals (2000 years +)

I highly recommend that you watch the youtube video called - goldnomics - and loving the music.

If I don't use a gram of anything in the future to save anything or anyone I have lost nothing,but failing to plan for tomorrow as I see it is just plain dumb.
 
Ipv6Ready said:
But to buy staples you need to convert it to money
Click to expand...

It already is money, or did you forget that? Sure an ounce of gold will be inconvenient if you're just nipping down the farmer's market but smaller denominations of gold (and of course silver) would be perfectly viable as a means of exchange. What else are we gonna use, shells? [note: people keep referring to consumables (tinned food, TP, cigarettes, bullets etc etc) as useful for exchange, but they are exactly, explicitly, NOT money because they will be consumed, or deteriorate in a relatively short time]

What I wouldn't be doing in a SHTF or hyperinflation scenario would be to sell my gold or silver for fiat currency. Nuh-uh.

Think about it, an ounce of gold or two could buy you a shitbox car if you were in desperate need; a few florins might pay for the week's food.

And why are people referring to a 'black market' in this thread? If it ever comes to this, it will be THE market.
 
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