I was right! I was right!
- Thread starter Cheepo
- Start date
Cheepo said:
priceless :lol:
Cheepo said:
sell order on silver CFD
Put option on binaries
Going long on a USD ETF
I may not have called it, but I hedged a falling silver price like Edward Scissorhands.
Gatito Bandito
Active Member
- Shorting an ETF can produce nearly unlimited losses (until they finally just close it out on you)
- Buying puts will kill you on the decay (and the spread)
- Buying an inverse ETF will do the same with the decay
Pick yer poison..
- Buying puts will kill you on the decay (and the spread)
- Buying an inverse ETF will do the same with the decay
Pick yer poison..
Why? All this is just a bit of fun. Everybody forecast prices, and most of the time people get it wrong (just look at the competition on silverstackers. It just takes four-five weeks to declare a winner). It's actually very difficult to make good forecasts. Even billionaire investors get it wrong half the time, and their money simply comes from insider trading.Altima said:thatguy said:
Gotta put your money where your mouth is.
So to the sore losers who bought silver at 45 and are now bitter: you should have listened to my advise
(joke)
mmissinglink
Active Member
2 years ago I was calling for $14 USD silver. while the permabulls were swearing that silver can't possibly drop below $34.....the permabulls are always wrong.
.
.
I'm not shorting an ETF. I bought a USD ETF a few months ago which is up over 5%
My brokerage has 0.5 pip spread on spot silver. I'm not day trading or scalping it. Hardly a concern
If I had chosen to wait out the silver/gold bear market I would be down a hell of a lot less if I wasn't hedging.
My brokerage has 0.5 pip spread on spot silver. I'm not day trading or scalping it. Hardly a concern
If I had chosen to wait out the silver/gold bear market I would be down a hell of a lot less if I wasn't hedging.
There's a subset of bulls that are emotionally invested in higher prices, and get angry and lash out with bitter insults when people explain why lower prices are a possibility. More rational bulls adjust their expectations and timeframes so you probably don't remember them as vividly as the ones driven by petty greed and with poor impulse control.mmissinglink said:
Well done cheepo, you've kept your word, and importantly it's always been your word, your gut feeling and your opinion.
can't say that for many others that base their opinion on blogs online, the cut & paste article submitters highlighting why gold & silver will go up.
Your a legend.
can't say that for many others that base their opinion on blogs online, the cut & paste article submitters highlighting why gold & silver will go up.
Your a legend.
Gatito Bandito
Active Member
wrcmad said:
From a quick glance, seems like leveraging up on the potential price movement of an underlying asset.
Isn't that more or less the same as trading options? Or is there some sort of difference between the two out there?
Honest question. Familiar with options trading, but perhaps not on CFD's.
EDIT: Ah, no time factor / decay, nor strike price. Got it.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
As far as I remember:Cheepo said:
Your $15 prediction was last years Christmas at first.
Then that Christmas passed, price went up instead. No $15 seen.
And you remained silent 'bout it for some months (during the uptrend to $21 or so).
Then when price dropped again, you popped up again with it.
We have already seen $15 a month ago.
Not sure if that can be called 'predicting'.
It's more following than leading.
Over 3 weeks it will be another Christmas, and it could then be $16 or $17 or whatever higher again.
I remember another prediction, from 2 years ago, predicing $20 over 10 years.
It happened 1 year later, and someone said "your prediction became already true now".
Well, that's just bullshit, a prediction contains two pieces of data: price and time, and if one of both is wrong then the prediction is wrong too. Meaning that if somebody predicts $20 over 10 years then we'll only know when those 10 years have passed.
The silver (and other) price story became quite obvious by now.
That money that central banks placed out of the air on their balances was kept sterile.
Banks were rewarded for not lending it out along an intrest rate and forced along reserve requirements.
The latter was kept silent about, while the creation of the money was touted out loud about at its time, including by mouths on forums like this, as to lure inflation-concerned people into paying driven up prices and thus receiving less silver. In the process they sold what they had at those higher prices.
Once done, those mouths inverted their talk, to cause the opposite.
Aside of this story of misleading, there is such thing as a "stockpile".
Alot silver was added to that stockpile since 2004.
About equally in coins as in paper represented 1000 ouncers and another 250 Moz as an average futures contracts price effect.
This extra demand drove up the price.
Then the paper represented 1000 ouncer sales (ETF's) ceased to add.
This ETF demand vanished (around early 2012).
The demand for coins continued.
The futures contracts share dropped too.
Result was $27
Then in 2013 the futures contracts share dropped further.
Result was $22.
And later on, the vanished demand still exceeded the vanished supply (recycling dropped big time in 2013)
Who sold away the sub $20 part?
It's now $15. A price dollar change is about a 70 Moz supply/demand change. Relative to $22 that's 70 x 7 = 490 Moz, about a half years total supply/demand.
That is still an unanswered question.
The coin (Mint) sales are still on their highs.
While the ETF demand vanished, the ETF stocks are still held fully.
What does this leave for the price mechanism to be adjusted?
Last years Thomson Reuters data didn't show an explanation.
Without explanations, I continue buying at the subsequently lower prices.
If this $15 (or whatever lower) lasts till newyear, I'll have some more kilo's.
If it's higher, and I don't see reasons for it too, then I'll skip and keep the euro's for a hopefully again lower price.
Every extra stockpiled ounce will later on be extra sold, to undo the price trend it caused before.
Coin stocks must be high (as indicated by their sales), and ETF stocks must together be over a years total supply/demand.
The current big event / scare mongerer is the fast and big crude oil (big market big impact) price drop. Yet, all it did is returning to its 2009 level, which was very predictable, and the producers / dealers apparently did expect it, just look at the futures markets hedge size: http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=w1 (green or blue+red trendline). During the past years it sat very high all the time, reaping lotsa extra $, that compensate for the now lower price.
The next major event to expect is the stock market shares being sold off big time.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=w1
In other words: the next crisis.
It just requires that tad ugly economical news that so far stayed absent.
Banks, and bank deposits, will then (again) be at stake, and a new scare mongering cyclus will be started.
Sole difference being that I'll have some silver from before, including at $15 (and hopefully lower).
I would consider the junk bond market which is over exposed to the energy sector could be in a spot of bother
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
I remembered a topic named Crossroads (good search item) from juli last year, serving as a date reference to find this one back:Cheepo said:
http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-42205-short-term-6-months-for-silver-prices-13-or-30.html
"I would say it's heading for the $13-15 range if the economy continues to "improve.""
"my guess is 14.50 USD"
There are some others too, usually time frames being wrong, but aboves first one hit the nail, and also gave a capital reason ("improving" economy).
Future will tell us what was true of that "improvement". Here in EU, it seems to happen more on the govt measured paper than on the reality level.