-j-p-shmorgan
New Member
sterling-nz said:
Interesting... thank you!
Yeah, someone on the forum within the past couple months said that....
Those 2004 price points were quite nice - too bad I wasn't in the market yet. lol
I remember the time when 1 oz silver cost 45 $...
- Thread starter TreasureHunter
- Start date
Interesting... thank you!
Yeah, someone on the forum within the past couple months said that....
Those 2004 price points were quite nice - too bad I wasn't in the market yet. lol
sterling-nz
Well-Known Member
If you are not aware yet JPM "This time " is always going to be different.-j-p-shmorgan said:
It is all to easy to believe stories we hear when they reinforce our desired views(not saying that is what you are doing
You just need to ask the likes of Porcello on here that bought the 2011 hype and got into silver because of it.
You never know , this time may be different?
BUT HISTORY (for what it is worth) tells us it always turns out the same.
Just look at the new guys/gals that sign up here and start posting Balone, and Schiff, and Duane videos like they have just found the lost gospel of Christ.
Most learn quickly that they are not lost gospels and we set them on a path of DYODD and then many end up hating the above mentioned people.
I was in that boat as well, but learned in weeks they were pumpers and it cost me nothing , all wee need to do is jump on Youtube and look at vids from people who bought :the story" and it cost them thousand 10's of thousands before they realized this is NOT REALLY A NEW THING, people having been stacking for ever.
It turns out it was JUST NEW TO THEM and it is easy to get sucked up in the excitement of stacking and the thought of being way more financially advanced than those silly people that do not stack,lol
I want to refer to the following posts
#10 - Jim4silver
#17 - j-p-shmorgan
#20 - sterling-nz
Its about how prices of POS and real available coins differ in time of very low POS
I give you an example of 2008-09-18 ( 18th September of 2008 ) - because we have the side available in archive
There is a timemachine that stores some websites from the past - http://archive.org/web/
Go to this webside and type www.westgold.de - its a big dealer in germany
You get the following result of his webside
You can see buybackprices and sellingprices and the date
He was buying ASE, Maple and austrian philamocics @11,10
He had no stock to sell in 1oz size. Only available silver was a 1kg Koala 2008
Its not because only he was short in silver coins, each other Dealer had no coins available
Now lets have a look back to silver prices and exchange rates
POS was 11,50US$ - exchange rate EUR/USD was 1.42 -> POS in was 8,09
So POS was 8,09 and buyback price was 11,10 -> that was a premium of 37% for buy back 1oz coins from a dealer
Now have a look for his selling price for 1KG silver Koala coin 2008
Buying back @351 -> 10,96/oz -> that was a premium of more than 35% for buy back 1kg coins from a dealer
Selling @413 -> 12,90/oz -> that was a premium of more than 59% for 1kg coins from a dealer
POS went down from 21US$ in March 2008 to 8,85US$ in Oktober 2008. This was a decline of aprox 59%.
I was watching the market within this timeframe and i can remeber very good and did this research for you to prove its not only rumors ( i have heard )
2004 (refer to post #20 - sterling-nz) was a world without crisis in the had of average jo. Today we live in a world were the word crisis is a each day thematic.
So i expect in case of silver prices again go to a area of 9US$ we will see the same situation as we had back in 2008
No cheap coins even if there is a low POS - refer to post #10 - Jim4silver
Hope that helps and i did not waste my time doing this research for you back out of my mind and try to prove it with facts
#10 - Jim4silver
#17 - j-p-shmorgan
#20 - sterling-nz
Its about how prices of POS and real available coins differ in time of very low POS
I give you an example of 2008-09-18 ( 18th September of 2008 ) - because we have the side available in archive
There is a timemachine that stores some websites from the past - http://archive.org/web/
Go to this webside and type www.westgold.de - its a big dealer in germany
You get the following result of his webside
You can see buybackprices and sellingprices and the date
He was buying ASE, Maple and austrian philamocics @11,10
He had no stock to sell in 1oz size. Only available silver was a 1kg Koala 2008
Its not because only he was short in silver coins, each other Dealer had no coins available
Now lets have a look back to silver prices and exchange rates
POS was 11,50US$ - exchange rate EUR/USD was 1.42 -> POS in was 8,09
So POS was 8,09 and buyback price was 11,10 -> that was a premium of 37% for buy back 1oz coins from a dealer
Now have a look for his selling price for 1KG silver Koala coin 2008
Buying back @351 -> 10,96/oz -> that was a premium of more than 35% for buy back 1kg coins from a dealer
Selling @413 -> 12,90/oz -> that was a premium of more than 59% for 1kg coins from a dealer
POS went down from 21US$ in March 2008 to 8,85US$ in Oktober 2008. This was a decline of aprox 59%.
I was watching the market within this timeframe and i can remeber very good and did this research for you to prove its not only rumors ( i have heard )
2004 (refer to post #20 - sterling-nz) was a world without crisis in the had of average jo. Today we live in a world were the word crisis is a each day thematic.
So i expect in case of silver prices again go to a area of 9US$ we will see the same situation as we had back in 2008
No cheap coins even if there is a low POS - refer to post #10 - Jim4silver
Hope that helps and i did not waste my time doing this research for you back out of my mind and try to prove it with facts
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
errol43 said:Didn't stay above $40oz for long did it?...The all time $50oz mark looked like in reach but it was not to be
Stayed above $30oz FOR a period of several months then back to sub $20 from where it came.
Regards Errol 43
Back then I saw silver coins selling for 47-48 USD at dealers and just a few months before the were in the mid-30's. I also believed that indeed, that a global cataclysm is about to happen and silver will head towards 100 $.
Well, who would have thought it would go down to 15 $? :/
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
mr-dead said:
Don't offend others, sorry about the "billion", but it's 18.3, not 18.4.
How does this look like to you? 18.3 or 18.4?
hihosilver
New Member
ego2spare said:
+1
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
Silver's asset bubble popping phase is closest to the end. It may go lower, but I think in the end - you can't lose too much, even if it stays around this range or goes lower.
Even if it sinks to 8-9 $, it's just -6 $/oz. There was a long way down from 47 $. And there's a long way up, should silver reach previous highs.
Even if it sinks to 8-9 $, it's just -6 $/oz. There was a long way down from 47 $. And there's a long way up, should silver reach previous highs.
hihosilver
New Member
remember BrotherJohn saying it was a sure thing $100 and beyond - strap yourself in....
mmissinglink
Active Member
hihosilver said:
Brother John was as wrong as a can be. At the same time the permabulls were screaming "silva to da moon", realists were warning of silver's impending fall.
Those who heed the rhetoric of permabulls are the one's who are fooling themselves.
We all need to have an open mind and we shouldn't feed the fear mongers.
.
I've been watching silver since 2010 and watching it intently since 2011, I waited more than three years to get into the market at the end of last year I was confident that if we weren't near an AUD bottom that we were close to it and that if we weren't at the moment of maximum bearish sentiment then we were close to it. 6 months later I can imagine things going lower, I don't think we'll see $10usd silver but I could I can image it going lower than $15usd for a while.
Of course that says nothing about the upside, once you've bottomed you might have to wait a good long while to see any positive movement. We've seen in the past that silver can do well in certain kinds of crisis and do badly in others, it's not gold. In the 07/08 crash the prospect of lower industrial consumption actually held silver down until a couple years later when the flow on monetary effects started to be felt, only then did silver out pace inflation in a big way.
If the next crisis is primarily monetary, perhaps a collapse in US bond markets, then it could be very good for silver, if it starts with a housing collapse that threatens consumer discretionary then it could be bad for a while (though eventually good).
If nothing else I I think you can say that with only a couple of oddball exceptions nobody, even the most everything's fine types, is saying that silver will never be valuable again. Nobody is saying that there will never be a crash again. To quote a great man, "On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.". Well, on a long enough time line the odds of avoiding a fiscal crisis are zero. We're that much closer to the day silver will shine again. I happen to think that there are a few quite good reasons to think that it will be sooner rather than later and that it has a lot more going for it then just everything having it's moment.
Of course that says nothing about the upside, once you've bottomed you might have to wait a good long while to see any positive movement. We've seen in the past that silver can do well in certain kinds of crisis and do badly in others, it's not gold. In the 07/08 crash the prospect of lower industrial consumption actually held silver down until a couple years later when the flow on monetary effects started to be felt, only then did silver out pace inflation in a big way.
If the next crisis is primarily monetary, perhaps a collapse in US bond markets, then it could be very good for silver, if it starts with a housing collapse that threatens consumer discretionary then it could be bad for a while (though eventually good).
If nothing else I I think you can say that with only a couple of oddball exceptions nobody, even the most everything's fine types, is saying that silver will never be valuable again. Nobody is saying that there will never be a crash again. To quote a great man, "On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.". Well, on a long enough time line the odds of avoiding a fiscal crisis are zero. We're that much closer to the day silver will shine again. I happen to think that there are a few quite good reasons to think that it will be sooner rather than later and that it has a lot more going for it then just everything having it's moment.
hihosilver
New Member
mmissinglink said:hihosilver said:
Brother John was as wrong as a can be. At the same time the permabulls were screaming "silva to da moon", realists were warning of silver's impending fall.
Those who heed the rhetoric of permabulls are the one's who are fooling themselves.
We all need to have an open mind and we shouldn't feed the fear mongers.
yep
At least I have a little understanding of coins, bullion and other misc things ( Useless Trivial facts :lol: ) I would never have known if I didn't log on to this cursed site
.
Jim4silver
Well-Known Member
I wonder why many seem to think the same "rules" apply to silver when the price was $45 as they do now at $15? Because some loaded up then and lost value at the top, it is assumed the same will happen to those who load up at $15.
Maybe I fell on my head as a child, but doesn't anyone see that as you get closer to ZERO for a price on a commodity with 1000's of uses (industrial, medical, technological--how can anyone say silver has NO intrinsic value?) things might not play out the same as they did when silver was $45? Silver is not like some Euro bond with negative interest. Maybe silver will get to $5, $2, and then free. Yes, my local coin stores will soon be paying me $2 an ounce to take the ASE's off their hands. I can see it now.
The problem is some folks look at the silver price like they do with a share of stock in some crap company that is being beaten down. There is really no difference between $45, $15, and $1 in such a stock, but for a price for a real commodity it won't work that way.
Nostalgic posters who quote prices from 2004 even are not accurately seeing this because the price structure in the mining companies is different now than 2004 or 1994. Don't believe me, look at the financials from several mining companies and see how profitable they have been. That is not pumping or speculating, that is where the rubber meets the road as they say.
I have silver I bought as high as $25 (not much thankfully) and silver I bought at $10 (not much unfortunately) and don't lose sleep. PM's are definitely not though for the faint of heart.
PS Wonder when the bottom is coming in PM's? When even die hard (former) bugs are against silver, especially when it is below the cost of production (at many if not most mining co's).
Just my opinion.
Jim
Maybe I fell on my head as a child, but doesn't anyone see that as you get closer to ZERO for a price on a commodity with 1000's of uses (industrial, medical, technological--how can anyone say silver has NO intrinsic value?) things might not play out the same as they did when silver was $45? Silver is not like some Euro bond with negative interest. Maybe silver will get to $5, $2, and then free. Yes, my local coin stores will soon be paying me $2 an ounce to take the ASE's off their hands. I can see it now.
The problem is some folks look at the silver price like they do with a share of stock in some crap company that is being beaten down. There is really no difference between $45, $15, and $1 in such a stock, but for a price for a real commodity it won't work that way.
Nostalgic posters who quote prices from 2004 even are not accurately seeing this because the price structure in the mining companies is different now than 2004 or 1994. Don't believe me, look at the financials from several mining companies and see how profitable they have been. That is not pumping or speculating, that is where the rubber meets the road as they say.
I have silver I bought as high as $25 (not much thankfully) and silver I bought at $10 (not much unfortunately) and don't lose sleep. PM's are definitely not though for the faint of heart.
PS Wonder when the bottom is coming in PM's? When even die hard (former) bugs are against silver, especially when it is below the cost of production (at many if not most mining co's).
Just my opinion.
Jim
sterling-nz
Well-Known Member
My apologiesPorcello said:
I thought i had seen posts from you buying back in 2011.
I was not having a dig or anything like that.
-j-p-shmorgan
New Member
The dollar is being manipulated. 4 bank panels that set spot price around the world, stopped doing that this year.
Arabs are threatening to stop selling oil for dollars. Hang onto your PMs.
Arabs are threatening to stop selling oil for dollars. Hang onto your PMs.
-j-p-shmorgan said:The dollar is being manipulated. 4 bank panels that set spot price around the world, stopped doing that this year.
Arabs are threatening to stop selling oil for dollars. Hang onto your PMs.
Not gonna happen. Iraq tried and it's quite obvious how it has ended.