mightymatt said:
It sounds like this guy woke up this morning and forgot to take his meds.....Bloodbath???? Relax, take a chill Pill.....geeeeez
Yea, to me that word appears like fearmongering.
Take for ex me, my coin purchase average is according to spot $30.
With the exception of the 2011 Lunar series non-kilocoins, I never paid high premiums.
The spot price is now $20.
And in some future, the silver spot price may again have risen, and maybe more than other stuff.
This topic is like some 2 years too late.
But then, in the $40-$50 range, we didn't see these kinda topics.
Rather their contrarian versions (moons etc).
Acting contrarian back then was a good idea.
Why wouldn't acting contrarian now, be a good idea too?
Bloodbaths?
Heh, all I see, is more silver for my euro's, and I noticed that topics like this, serve as good signal flares.
Not that this puts me in a hurry.
I'll wait for sub $19, and from then I'll start sitting on the edge of the chair again, to order Lunar horse kilocoins, and after it my average will again be a tad lower.
Lower prices are only bad for those that planned to sell during their existence duration.
I don't even have selling plans. For my former euro's I also didn't have selling plans. Now and then I sold some, to buy stuff. Silver won't be much different, and the times I sell for less, may be compensated for with times I sell for more. I take some care in what I buy, and at which price I buy it, and if a price fluctuates more, I take care of 'when' more too.
About predicting silver prices - I don't care about temporary up>downs - the coming years outlook appears as flat to me. 2008-2011 saw the stockpiling of over 50% of an annual supply - 600 Moz, with 400 of it as 1000 ounce bars. Since the 1000 ounce part nearly stalled post 2011, the silver production doesn't meet the same demand anymore, and that's why the price dropping already without the 1000 ounce bars stocks depleting. Production will likely drop again, as to keep the price level above what is needed to pay the bills related to the production. It's possible that we hang in the $15-20 range in this period.
Aside of that, there is the competition. The fiatcurrencies. The trust people have in them, depends on the speed of their value degradation. In order to decrease the value degradation, economy has to do the job better. My opinion is that it will be very hard to repeat the innovations of the 1980-2005 period. That would mean that the value degradation of the fiatcurrencies becomes a 1:1 proportional function of the spending level. In other words: if people spend 10% more, the value degradation will be 10% too.
Since economical 'revival', ending a crisis, basically means a spending increase, fiatcurrencies would devalue 1:1 with it.
Since such 1:1 devalueing means that prices go up as fast as spending goes up, that end of a crisis means restarting it again, forming a viscious circling feedback mechanism.
Since this instability means harder becoming financial planning, investment risk increases, causing the amount of investment, to drop.
Since this investment drop means detoriation of infrastructure and production and efficiency, the fiatcurrency devalueing becomes faster.
So what would we have then: the viscious circle increases in speed, once again.
Until some point, where the viscious circle would become a disorganized cloud dots.
That's why I became a speculator.
That's why I bought silver.
That's why I hold silver.
That's why I buy more silver.
And other stuff, that can be bought ahead of its need.
Some do temp swaps back to fiatcurrency.
To then buy more silver from people that are willing (mood measurement method called 'technical analysis' haha) to sell for less fiatcurrency.
I'm not amongst the former.
I'm not amongst the latter.
