JollyKillBill said:
StevoDaHero said:
We are the 1% (now I know how it feels x])
I was thinking we are the .1% or more then likely lower
I think you are in the correct ballpark. I was thinking about this today as I had posted an article from a huge silverbug (The Wealth Watchman) who was attempting to sway the readers by using the seemingly impressive statistic that US Mint sales (in ounces) of silver were 112 times that of gold ounces purchased- thereby implying that the situation could not last for very long since silver is only currently being pulled out of the earth at a ratio of 9-10 :1. (I've heard Eric Sprott use this argument as well). It is totally erroneous of course...the ratio could be 100:1 or 1000:1 but it really doesn't matter one iota if the total investment/jewelry plus industrial demand is not really increasing.
That said, if the the percentage of stackers suddenly doubled in relative terms ( but increased by a very small amount in absolute terms ) that sort of momentum could precipitate the long-awaited silver-to-da-moon scenario.
For simplicity sake lets us say that there are ~1 billion people of the developed/first world nations (North America, Western Europe, Japan, Australia) that could potentially stack silver.
If I very arbitrarily define a silver stacker to be one who stacks 100 oz /year (~$2000 of their annual savings) on average, and if the annual investment (coin and bar) demand is 200 million oz,
then this would give us 2 million silver stackers worldwide (of the developed nations) . This ratio is 2/1000 or 0.2%. In my experience this is probably about right. I am a professional (and thus likely in the top 5% of wage-earners in my country ) yet none of my acquaintances stack silver (or perhaps they do but are very discreet about it, but I doubt that).
So if a very small absolute percentage of individuals were to lose trust in fiat currency, the effect would be potentially huge in affecting the demand. (i.e. if just 1/1000 additional people started to stack ( i.e. the percentage of stackers went from 0.2% of the population to 0.3%)
that would potentially amount to an additional investment demand of 100 million oz/year (a 10% total increase in annual total demand/ "consumption"). Think about how tight the oil demand/supply curve is, and the effect on the price of oil/barrel if supply was suddenly reduced by 10%. (Admittedly not an apples-apples comparison but you get the point)
Cheers,
Luker