how badly will it affect australia??

In simple terms.

USA and EUROPE won't be able to buy stuff from CHINA so they won't bring in profits to purchase stuff from AUSTRALIA.
 
boston said:
Mattlyndy said:
Europe or US going down on their own i.e. only Europe crashes and US trades as normal or vice versa will not affect China in a huge way, but if both go down the tube that would be a different story. That rope that joins both China and Australia is more of a neck tie, looks good when things are going well, but can easily be converted to a hangmans noose if the world takes a dive, or whenever China feels like it. Our ties to China are not all a good thing.
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Most, but not all, of China's exports are almost equally divided between the USA and Europe. If one of these major export markets crashes, or reduces, it will affect China, and by extension Australia, big time. To put it into perspective, imagine if 50% of Australia's export markets dried up. There would be carnage in the markets.
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Don't worry our Real Estate worth trillions of dollars will prop up the market ;)
 
primaticves said:
hey guys just wondering what your opinion and how australia will be affected if the US go down if if one the PIIGS default? Reason i ask is i was at this real estate seminar yesterday

....
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Therein lies your first problem. Everything they say is rubbish.
 
ReturnToZero said:
primaticves said:
hey guys just wondering what your opinion and how australia will be affected if the US go down if if one the PIIGS default? Reason i ask is i was at this real estate seminar yesterday

....
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Therein lies your first problem. Everything they say is rubbish.
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Would not be too bad if it was just rubbish unfortunately in my opinion it is deliberate misinformation for the property seminars gain
 
What is with all the doom and gloom, all I see is opportunity.

Must be that inner aussie optimism.
 
Australia is not protected from the global economy. In fact, as said prior in the thread, the only reason we are such a prosperous country is due to China's demand for minerals. High exports from a country(Australia) is a sign of a globalised economy, a great demonstrator of this is the exchange rate.

For those who have not familiar with how exchange rates rates work, its basically all determined though supply and demand. When Australia's goods & services are in high demand, this will generally raise the value of the AUD. Why? because the Australian business who is selling the resource wants to be paid in their own currency, which is the AUD. The business does not want Chinese Yuan. In order to do this the foreign currency has to be exchanged into AUD. As a result greater demand is put down for AUD and supply reduces when this demand is filled. This is called an appreciation of a currency (AUD). If we wanted to reverse this example we could say for instance the demand for Australia's resources dropped off. As a result there would be a reduction in exports. This means less Yuan is being exchanged for the AUD. As a result less demand is being placed on the AUD. This changes equilibrium and as a result the AUD depreciates.

This happened in the last week, the AUD dropped to .96 USD. This was due purely due to a sell off in currency's which are highly attached to commodities(AUD). This shows how volatile Australia's currency is and its reinforcing Australia's status as being highly globalised. Its a great example which shows WE are not immune to the rest of the worlds economic activity.
 
We are almost 100% dependent on the mining sector once the world starts slipping in recession we will be in some serious trouble here. States such as WA/QLD/NT will be killed you are already seeing a significant slowdown in these states in real-estate.

In Melb/Syd where everybody is in massive debt it will be a big struggle. The government will naturally punish the people with wealth who have made the right decisions to protect themselves to help the single mums and family's to get votes.
 
Nukz said:
We are almost 100% dependent on the mining sector once the world starts slipping in recession we will be in some serious trouble here. States such as WA/QLD/NT will be killed you are already seeing a significant slowdown in these states in real-estate.

In Melb/Syd where everybody is in massive debt it will be a big struggle. The government will naturally punish the people with wealth who have made the right decisions to protect themselves to help the single mums and family's to get votes.
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Actually, our biggest dependency is on service sector (Real estate is in service sector). Mining is our number 1 export, but it forms small part of economy.

Our economy, like most developed world depends on continuous asset appreciation. RE slowing down will mean really bad balance sheet for banks and bad liquidity.
 
it simply wont at ground level!

i do 10% of my work in precious and rare metals and make 90% of my profit from them. $2 million a year in minerals and world biggest seller of my states minerals. i work my head off too, (4 jobs) and run a successful Internet business and own 2000+ parked websites, Just, so i can earn while at work or asleep or just when i can not be bothered, thinking about it. And, you think this country,, is going down the drain..? if you do, You need to be on the dole or a special pension. Unless you have a better place ( in the whole world) for prosperity in mind? if you do, i suggest you need to get off the bus a bit more often
 
I don't see how your success proves that Australia will be untouched by this next GFC.

Maybe i'm missing something?
 
Trichter said:
The financial world is intimately interconnected.
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so to is the human (energetic world)...think 'the Butterfly Effect'..

The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale alterations of events (compare: domino effect). Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different. While the butterfly does not "cause" the tornado in the sense of providing the energy for the tornado, it does "cause" it in the sense that the flap of its wings is an essential part of the initial conditions resulting in a tornado, and without that flap that particular tornado would not have existed.
 
Philski said:
it simply wont at ground level!

i do 10% of my work in precious and rare metals and make 90% of my profit from them. $2 million a year in minerals and world biggest seller of my states minerals. i work my head off too, (4 jobs) and run a successful Internet business and own 2000+ parked websites, Just, so i can earn while at work or asleep or just when i can not be bothered, thinking about it. And, you think this country,, is going down the drain..? if you do, You need to be on the dole or a special pension. Unless you have a better place ( in the whole world) for prosperity in mind? if you do, i suggest you need to get off the bus a bit more often
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And you still find time to post here ?

TASMANIA'S high rate of long-term unemployment has prompted pleas for more State Government investment.

Figures for August, released by the Department of Treasury and Finance, show Tasmania has almost 3000 people who have been unemployed for longer than a year.

This amounts to 1.2 per cent of the total labour force the highest long-term unemployment rate in the country.

Tasmanians who have been jobless for more than a year now account for 20 per cent of the state's unemployed, with 10 per cent of the jobless out of work for longer than two years.

The state's average duration of unemployment is 42.8 weeks five weeks above the national average.
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http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2011/09/17/261971_tasmania-news.html

Not too shiny there really is it ?

jpanggy
Yesterday 20:38:44

Actually, our biggest dependency is on service sector (Real estate is in service sector). Mining is our number 1 export, but it forms small part of economy.

Our economy, like most developed world depends on continuous asset appreciation. RE slowing down will mean really bad balance sheet for banks and bad liquidity.
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The Mining sector is the only saving grace of our economy at the moment , Exports are what keeps us afloat and people in Jobs it is also what they mean when they quote a two speed economy, resources are what is in first gear while the rest are in neutral or reverse.


One little hiccup will be all it will take to bring us down with the rest of the ship, and the way things are heading with a Mining Tax, and a Co2 Tax on top of the current turmoil in Europe and the U.S it is more a case of not being sucked down with the rest of the deck chairs. China is not immune and while we might be at the end of the domino line it might also be the case that we will have to wait in line until the rest of the rape victims are physically and psychologically able to recover before we are even able to get to our feet to report the crime.

It is not a case of if but of when, Not sure if i read it here or elsewhere but it was very eloquently put "there is no clean end with which to pick up a turd " .
 
purplefunkything said:
Trichter said:
The financial world is intimately interconnected.
Click to expand...

so to is the human (energetic world)...think 'the Butterfly Effect'..

The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale alterations of events (compare: domino effect). Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different. While the butterfly does not "cause" the tornado in the sense of providing the energy for the tornado, it does "cause" it in the sense that the flap of its wings is an essential part of the initial conditions resulting in a tornado, and without that flap that particular tornado would not have existed.
Click to expand...

To add to this, it is not so much a domino effect at all. It will not be straight and linear, if it was you could pick a domino and choose that as the point to 'defend the system'. The butterfly wing flap, much like the financial system is a chaotic one. In that outcomes can not be predicted and by definition chaotic. Small changes to the inputs produces large changes in the output and for the most part cannot be anticipated.

"Chaotic systems exhibit a property called sensitivity to initial conditions. That means that no matter how exactly you tried to duplicate the initial angles and velocities for each experimental run, the motion would soon be very different from experiment to experiment."

The politicans are focused on stopping the system from gaining any initial condition at all for exactly those reasons.
 
for the lesser educated it will be hard, for the well informed and prepared it's a huge opportunity.
 
Lav said:
for the lesser educated it will be hard, for the well informed and prepared it's a huge opportunity.
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Would you like to explain the nature of the huge opportunity that you perceive in the economic catastrophe that will span the globe and wash up on the doors of every household? I'm not sure I understand what you mean actually.
 
The talk about China will ever increasing their raw material imports despite of their export is a total bull.

China's super growth and economy is a super fragile bubble, all it takes is a severe recession around the world and those cheap chinese plastic goods will stop flowing out of china!

Even as we speak now... US' import of chinese products are showing a sign of slowing down and China is starting to have problems selling their goods. I got a relative in living in GuangZhou who owned and operate a factory (related to textile industry) so her business is VERY sensitive to the world economy. In the recent months, her business slooooowed big time because of US' is significantly reducing their import of chinese products. Now she's up to the point where she can no longer rely on US to buy her goods anymore and in order to stay in business she started selling her goods domestically with GREATLY reduced price and with NO WHERE near the volume she sold to US to.

Currently her business is in trouble, she's struggling to keep up with cost of production and inflation coupled with hair-thin profit due to selling domestically.
 
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