How are the stockmarket bears going?

finicky

finicky

Well-Known Member
Silver Stacker
Some robust results coming out in end of year financial reports and the charts are responding. Even bearish Gary Glover sounds a bit toey regarding the chart of the All Ords (see vid link below). He draws the chart as compressing the price right towards the apex of a triangle stretching from the 2007 top! Which way will it break?

Still bearish myself, but some surprising breaks above downtrends and horizontal resistance showing up in charts of particular stocks I follow.

Saw a comment on FN Arena today that the big 3, CBA, ANZ, and WBC have recovered all their losses from the 2007 top if you throw in the dividends since then.

http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/ar...fternoon_Investor_15_08_2012&utm_medium=email
 
I'm not a bear... I just know the risks and cannot carry them. Would be good to revisit this thread on nov 7
 
thatguy said:
I'm not a bear... I just know the risks and cannot carry them. Would be good to revisit this thread on nov 7
Click to expand...

Well said, I am totally the same. The risks vs possible reward is not enough for me thus why I am out of the market
 
hem9 said:
thatguy said:
I'm not a bear... I just know the risks and cannot carry them. Would be good to revisit this thread on nov 7
Click to expand...

Well said, I am totally the same. The risks vs possible reward is not enough for me thus why I am out of the market
Click to expand...

+1. ^^^ This.
 
The gold index is firming up, if it goes up thats great but even if it goes sideways, thats ok as well
The bottom is in, so unless gold tanks - I dont see the PM mining stocks exceeding that bottom in a decline in the XJO (asx200) without a corresponding fall in Gold price (IMHO)
 
thatguy said:
I'm not a bear... I just know the risks and cannot carry them. Would be good to revisit this thread on nov 7
Click to expand...
Is Nov 7 pivotal in some way?
 
Kawa said:
I'm buying as many Big 4 bank shares as I can afford at present.
Click to expand...

Because they are undervalued?
Because they pay great dividends?
Because it's a great way to get back at them? (own a piece of them)

Genuinely curious :)
 
I remember getting ANZ at i think $11 in the depth of the GFC which was nice but i got rid of them a little while ago. Personally i'm very wary of banks and the big mining giants simple because of debt exposure and a slowing China.

Depends on which bank but i would be very wary of one of the big-4 which was bailed out by the FED previously and had a significantly larger derivatives position than the others. That particular bank recently reported a pretty lackluster profit in which they even acknowledged margin's were being squeezed(i suspect more than the other banks).
 
Arsenal said:
boston said:
thatguy said:
I'm not a bear... I just know the risks and cannot carry them. Would be good to revisit this thread on nov 7
Click to expand...
Is Nov 7 pivotal in some way?
Click to expand...

US Elections (I presume)
Click to expand...

"The United States presidential election of 2012 is the next United States presidential election, to be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012"
 
Kawa said:
I'm buying as many Big 4 bank shares as I can afford at present.
Click to expand...

Check their Derivatives exposure and you might change your mind.

Beware Friend, Things might not be as we are led to believe.

Regards Errol 43
 
errol43 said:
Kawa said:
I'm buying as many Big 4 bank shares as I can afford at present.
Click to expand...

Check their Derivatives exposure and you might change your mind.

Beware Friend, Things might not be as we are led to believe.

Regards Errol 43
Click to expand...

Very true words. None of it makes sense. It is all a smoke and mirrors conjuring trick.
 
rbaggio said:
Kawa said:
I'm buying as many Big 4 bank shares as I can afford at present.
Click to expand...

Because they are undervalued?
Because they pay great dividends?
Because it's a great way to get back at them? (own a piece of them)

Genuinely curious :)
Click to expand...

Mainly yield.Though I take the point about the off BS financing as do all banks.

I'm aware of the NAB and Westpac borrowing from the Fed Res in the GFC etc.

I have taken a view that the yield is worth the ride as generally the divs have been maintained over the years.

Whilst I hope their prices stay up its not the #1 criteria for my position.

Obviously i dont want to loose capital and would keep a close eye on the SP.
 
So when do you crack? That's what i want to know. What's the plan? There's all that retail money out and in shrinking yield cash management accounts and term deposits. There are the managed fund apparatchiks who are looking like underperforming at their tasks - they'll have to crack; not even a choice. What are you intending if they all hit the buy button - continue to stay on the sidelines? What is the limit to your inaction?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-19/market-hits-15-month-high/4323674

"Local market hits 15-month high

The Australian share market closed slightly stronger at a fresh 15-month high on Friday, ahead of a summit of EU leaders this weekend."
 
... and how are you now?

'Control point' of 4500 on the ASX S&P and All Ords might be being overcome? At least in the medium term. What's it like getting no capital gain and a fully taxable 4% on your term deposits, csh mgt accounts, and so on? Precious metals a bit boring too.

Garry Glover mentioned some time ago that the index was compressing into the end of a triangle. Well the upper resistance downtrend line of that triangle was breached a while back, just put a ruler across the peaks from the top in 2007, and now the recent ST peak that some thought was a 'false breakout' from 4500 is being challenged.

A bullish case for equities is made by James Gerrish in the 3rd article in this linked email. All those funds on the sidelines might start to landslide into shares? Then there's the foreign funds looking for yield and in a stronger currency?

"Bull markets start when few investors own the market, and most people find comfort on the sidelines."

http://www.sharetradingeducation.com/f.ashx/weekly-wrap/$61932$article121210.pdf?_nc=true

1893_all_ords_dec_11_2012.gif
 
I've compiled some statistics. Will comment later on my thoughts for strategic asset allocation going forward in the short to medium term.

This may also be of interest:
http://www.asx.com.au/documents/products/ASX_Report_2012.pdf


ASX [proxied by STW, incl dividends]
2010: 5%
2011: -11%
2012 ytd: 20%
10 years to dec 2011: 7%


Gold Spot
2010: 13%
2011: 10%
2012 ytd: 7%
10 years to date: 11%


Silver Spot
2010: 58%
2011: -11%
2012 ytd: 17%
10 years to date: 16%


10 year Aus gvmt bonds
2010: 7%
2011: 19%
2012 ytd: 9%
10 years to dec 2011: 6.4%


Cash [based on ING 1 year term deposits]:
2010: 6.5%
2011: 5.5%
2012: 4.5%


Residential Property:
10 years to dec 2011: 8%


Average fund [growth/balanced/conservative]
10 years to dec 2011:
5.4% / 4.6% / 3.9%

[all denominated in AUD]
 
How are the stockmarket bears going?

Pandas with black eyes on the triplets
 
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