So do you think it's inevitable that coin collecting will become like stamp collecting? Or do you think that there's more resilience in numismatics because of built in differences between paper and metal goods for specific other reasons? What reasons? What do you think collectors, dealers, and or mints can do to hasten the assumed downward trajectory of numismatics? Do you think that because certain coins are made from precious metals and that because precious metals are traded in commodities and paper markets that numismatics has a (significant) leg up on philatelics? After all, other than the collector premium with stamps, there really is little other value to most philatelic items unlike as with coins made from PM's, there's always the metal value that can impact the short term value of those coins (up or down).
I think there are several levels of collectors.
Casual collectors will probably drop off and few new collectors will join the hobby.
Nostalgia collectors may only want a few examples, I used to live in Germany and recently bought a 5 Deutchmark Note, which were rare as they circulated side by side with a 5 DM coin. I have a few banknotes but now I have all the coins. At most I might buy a mint set from Germany but that would be about it. Maybe a set of coins from the year I was born.
At the top end of the hobby where people like to spend $$$ on a single coin then I can see it going on forever, people with a lot of money can indulge themselves and go to auctions and buy up collections and that sort of thing.
People who are interested in collecting things can find other things to collect, I recently came across digital collector cards, apparently even trade cards aren't safe. One of my favourite trading card games now has an online version with online cards to collect.
No one needs to collect coins, it is only done because it gives some form of enjoyment. Some people collect coins because it is now a habit, they have been doing it so long that it is just a part of their lives. Some people are driven to collect complete sets, these people eventually get fatigued once the Mints start producing more and more product to keep going.
I think there are many parallels between coin, stamp and phonecard collecting.
They all came about because of a need, the need to buy stuff, send letters and make phonecalls on the go.
Technology has now made all of these things easier and more convenient, electronic banking, email and mobile phones.
All these 'hobbies' started out as 100% service businesses until they discovered that there was a group of people who would pay money without using the service.
So they started making commemorative stamps, commemorative coins and collectible phonecards.
The majority of people just using the service didn't notice, the minority of collectors were happy that there was a bit of variety and snapped up these new offerings and a small group of users thought it was pretty cool and started collecting themselves.
Fast forward and the number of service users is dropping because of alternatives but there is still a base of collectors. Now the collector money has to replace the user money.
All three industries did the same thing, ramped up the number of collectible issues and put up the prices on the collectibles.
The more users left the more the collectors had to replace the income, so the more often, the more varied and the more expensive the collecting side became.
So you end up with a few people paying extortionate amounts of money to prop up an industry on its last legs. They eventually bore of the hobby, move on to something with a larger active base or become more selective in what they can afford to purchase, they difficulty in trying to achieve a 100% collection means many will quit.
Then the realisation hits that there are no new comers to the hobby, and why would there be? The youth don't bother paying money to use an antiquated system (177 years old) that takes three days to deliver a message with a slight chance that it will never get there, when they can send a message from their phone and get immediate delivery with the knowledge that it got there.
Can you even buy phonecards anymore and if so, who is buying them? Most of the phonecard clubs I know of have switched to collecting shop gift cards.
And coins, why carry around heavy metals that don't actually buy you anything unless you have a pocket full of them when you can pay from your phone or use a credit card?
There is no incentive for young people to adopt an old fashioned technology when the new technology is better for most of the time, sure they will be inconvenienced when the power goes out at the supermarket or their mobile battery dies but most of the time when it works, it works much, much better than the old tech.
Each industry tried the same thing, milk the collectors.
Phonecard collecting folded several years ago, no new phonecards and no commemorative issues and no machines that can accept them.
Stamp collecting is on life support, some people still send letters, sometimes stamps are used even though it is better to just print them on a sticky label when you need them, but post offices are closing or transitioning into other areas like passports or selling junk. Money can still be made selling stamps to collectors but not in the way you could back in the 80s.
Coins are still going through the phase of milking the collector, $10 for a $1 coin in a 50 cent cardboard holder, and unlimited series being churned out, how many non-circulating $1 coins are being released each year? How many time are coins going to be sold in different packaging and why can I buy current year lunar offerings with dragons on them
is that a Chinese thing or did the mints just catch on that people will spend more for a dragon than they will for a chicken. (Genuine question)
So at the moment it is pretty good for coin collectors, there are still plenty of people in the hobby, maybe not as many as there used to be but still enough people to keep a forum going. There are still some new people joining the hobby as coins are still used in everyday life. There are so many offerings, we can buy several different series from each mint, there are ongoing series to make collections more themed there are pop up themes like Holden Cars through the ages, there are military and Disney and Star Wars and Star Trek and Lord of the Rings, and spherical coins, or exploded cubes or guitar shaped or map of Australia shaped and domed and lenticular, holographic with inserts of precious stones or glass and you can get them boxed or in a card and proof versions and high relief versions, we can buy them from Somalia and Canada and the UK and Several option in Australia and the USA... we never had so much choice.
But most of the stuff loses its value the second you buy it, and if you miss a coin series, no panic, there will be another one along soon, missed out on the 2000 $1 Victoria Cross coin, too expensive to buy one now? never mind, you can get the 2014 VC coin or the 2016 VC one and I am sure that there wall be many more now that the mint knows how popular the VC is.
So that leaves us with the saving grace of the Intrinsic Value!
All the other industries have been replaced but nothing will replace saving money...
Except that saving money is out of fashion too, banks don't encourage saving and are even threatening negative interest or giving 'investors' haircuts when they stuff up.
The youth of today are massively in debt if you believe the news. They all live off cheap credit via credit cards, they have crippling student debt, they are unlikely to find jobs, they will never afford a house so they spend all their money on entertaining and going on holiday and drinking lattes with smashed avocado on toast (which are lovely and I have no issue with).
So even saving money is out of fashion and with a socialist government and generous government handouts for housing and food and spending money, child care and even solar panels, why would you be interested in saving?
Paying down debt is a much better strategy than stacking, buying an investment property is a much better strategy than stacking.
The only place that silver and gold shines
is during a financial crisis or as some form of insurance again something really bad happening. In which case stacking beans is a better strategy. But, we have seen a global financial crisis with the US$ going so far into debt they stopped counting it and the idea of a debt ceiling because increasingly absurd. If Gold and silver weren't any use then, when will they be, how bad does it have to get for stacking to make sense?
If you want to put gold and silver aside for financial reasons then it makes sense to buy it at the cheapest you can get it, which means bars and not coins, which is still no help to the coin collecting hobby.
These are just my opinions, I have watched several other hobbies I have enjoyed go down the same path, I have watched companies get greedy and treat their best customers as brainless cash cows, I have seen attempts to prop up a failing system rather than embracing new technology and I have seen the eventual dwindling of interest in current enthusiasts and I have been involved in many conversations about how to engage the youth in the hobby.
You can fight it as best you can or you can make preparations to scale down your collecting, sell off your excess, and come up with an exit strategy that doesn't leave you dragging albums down to the local market trying to see what the local coin dealer will give you for them or holding on to them in the hopes that your children will somehow take an interest and not just dump them the second you are in the grave.
