have I made a mistake?
- Thread starter Hugh Mann
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House
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Savocado said:I brought some silver back after the price crashed and the Aussie dollar dropped, a double whammy, although I didn't put all my eggs in one basket and now have some shiny coins and bars to play with when I feel down.
Where did you bring it back from?
worldbubble
Active Member
I think a lot of people here are wishing they had billions of dollars and they were in top 0.00001% )))ryan71 said:
to TS
don`t make stacking as your life purpose ...
mentally prepare yourself to the idea that money you spend on stacking is the same money your spend on beer - you spent it - forget about price payed (sunk cost). This will allow you sleep well when price fluctuates.
It`s been my way since I have left stock market and started stacking.
Hugh Mann said:
I might be the one who kindly informed you that silver was about about $5-6 for much of the last 100 years.
And these would be inflation adjusted 2012 dollars: http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/gold-and-silver-prices-100-year-historical-chartYes, I believe it's absolutely certain that silver will go below $10/oz, and only go above $20/oz some time in the future. Will you see the price going above $20/oz again in your lifetime? It all depends if you smoke and how well you take care of your body (joke).
Having said that, I plan to buy a couple of kg of silver (coala and kooks 1 kg coins), when they cost HK$5,000 a kg, and that would be about $18/oz. Why? Because 1) these would be very cool paper weights, 2) I am tired of waiting, and 3) I can lose the money. After all, if you buy a tv, a pair of shoes, or a beer, they immediately lose much of their values. So who cares if your paper weights also lose some money?
But I am not going to put my retirement money into silver (or gold), when it costs $20/oz. I am much more likely to lose than to win. Silver and gold are bought when people panic. This happened in 2008 (if you remember, people thought that the financial system would collapse). Now there is less fear of this happening, and the price of silver is dropping. Will the financial system collapse? Those who want you to buy silver or gold will say that it probably will collapse next year. But most financial news are positive, so this is unlikely to be true. I am rather betting on an improvement of the global economy, followed by high interest rates to control inflation, which means that the price of silver and gold will drop, considerably. Let's meet again next year, same time, same place, and see who is right.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Where were you, at $50?Cheepo said:I might be the one who kindly informed you that silver was about about $5-6 for much of the last 100 years.
Yes, I believe it's absolutely certain that silver will go below $10/oz, and only go above $20/oz some time in the future. Will you see the price going above $20/oz again in your lifetime? It all depends if you smoke and how well you take care of your body (joke).
Having said that, I plan to buy a couple of kg of silver (coala and kooks 1 kg coins), when they cost HK$5,000 a kg, and that would be about $18/oz. Why? Because 1) these would be very cool paper weights, 2) I am tired of waiting, and 3) I can lose the money. After all, if you buy a tv, a pair of shoes, or a beer, they immediately lose much of their values. So who cares if your paper weights also lose some money?
But I am not going to put my retirement money into silver (or gold), when it costs $20/oz. I am much more likely to lose than to win. Silver and gold are bought when people panic. This happened in 2008 (if you remember, people thought that the financial system would collapse). Now there is less fear of this happening, and the price of silver is dropping. Will the financial system collapse? Those who want you to buy silver or gold will say that it probably will collapse next year. But most financial news are positive, so this is unlikely to be true. I am rather betting on an improvement of the global economy, followed by high interest rates to control inflation, which means that the price of silver and gold will drop, considerably. Let's meet again next year, same time, same place, and see who is right.
At $40?
At $30?
Now you're here, at $20, announcing lower.
This was me, silver newbie, knowing little to nothing about the silver market / how it works / who is on it, and having read lotsa scams (that I back then weren't aware of that they were scams) on the Kitco forum.
15 april 2011, price $43:
https://www.kitcomm.com/showpost.php?p=1307963&postcount=26
Lorian;1307963 said:
Can you show a similar warning from then, or at $40, or at $35, or at $30, or at $25, or anything inbetween?
In meantime I learnt who sold haha. The bunch that yelled to the moon and trains rolling out the stations back then.
One of them was outstanding in it, in such a degree that I decided to put it all together and store it:
https://www.kitcomm.com/search.php?...rteronly=1&exactname=1&searchuser=theplantguy
Page 4 is that period.
$38 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=79452 04 april 2011 "Great way to start the week......don't you think?"
$39 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=79517 05 april 2011 "39 ...One more step up the ladder"
$40 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=79723 07 april 2011 "Thursday..............Yet another up day"
$41 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80243 13 april 2011 "Hump Day...........Up Day"
$42 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80318 14 april 2011 "Killer Thursday............Movin' on up"
$43 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80419 15 april 2011 "A Fabulous Friday............Great Finish For The Week"
$44 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80679 19 april 2011 "Monday.........Up Up and Away"
$45.5 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80932 20 april 2011 "A Whale of a Wednesday............45+"
$46.50 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81069 21 april 2011 "A Thundering Thursday...............Look at that puppy go!!"
$49.50 25 april 2011 PEAK 1 - FIRST PROFITGRAB
$45 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81462 25 april 2011 "Monday Mayhem.............Y'all survive? Monday Mayhem............Y'all survive? What a day. Actually, not all that bad. The long term trend is still up. Just a minor bump. A "little" more volatility than usual."
$46 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81576 26 april 2011 "A downturn of 2 days or 2 weeks is not significant in the over all scope of things"
$49.50 28 april 2011 PEAK 2
$48 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81937 29 april 2011 "Silver..........Something to consider"
$44 1 may 2011 SECOND PROFITGRAB
$33 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81423 6 may 2011 "Silver...If you are never going to sell, what benefit is it to you?"
Concerns about fast rising price ending in big drop: none.
Warnings about big drop: none.
AFTER big drop: "Silver...If you are never going to sell, what benefit is it to you?"
And in another post he said he sold near the top.
So where did YOU sell?
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Do you name this 'herd mentality'?BiGs said:
I don't.
It's clear that some actively try to mislead others.
As proved by them doing the very opposite that they suggest others to do.
Herd mentality is more like doing what everybody seems to do.
But sometimes, that 'seems' is not what it seems, haha.
mmissinglink
Active Member
Yes Pirocco, it's true there are a lot of scumbag permabull stackers who care nothing about truth or integrity but rather only on hyping ("to da moon") silver or gold for their own personal gain. But it's like this with any type of speculative investment product which is basically what a commodity like silver is; look at the dirtbags hyping bitcoin....no different really. They tell sophisticated half-baked stories about the product and rarely, if at all, ever mentioning all the risk and downside to the product. Yes, part of the fault is on the people who believe these false sales pitch narratives, but the people who are telling these narratives are indeed dishonest dirtbags.
You more or less get to know who they are by the sorts of nonsense hype they write or say. Invariably, they only care about their own self-interest.
Completely opposite to these dirtbags are people like you, I, and some others here on SS forum who don't paint that rosey picture of precious metals that we know isn't true. The honest people warn of the serious risk and downside as well as trumpet the things that may be positive because truth is important to us.
.
You more or less get to know who they are by the sorts of nonsense hype they write or say. Invariably, they only care about their own self-interest.
Completely opposite to these dirtbags are people like you, I, and some others here on SS forum who don't paint that rosey picture of precious metals that we know isn't true. The honest people warn of the serious risk and downside as well as trumpet the things that may be positive because truth is important to us.
.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
A permabull is, according to what I've read, someone that always says (and hopefully also thinks!) that the price will rise.
This is different, they talk about higher (bull) when they sit ready to sell, and they talk about lower (bear) when they sit ready to buy back in.
So there is no 'perma' part.
I've read explanations about bull (market) bear (market).
Alot talk about the market alike it's some living person that thinks and acts. It's not. A market is a situation where people exchange stuff with eachother.
A few others actually focus on the 'bull' and 'bear' part, and the best description I came across is this one:
- a bull throws his victim in the air
- a bear pushes his victim till the ground.
Notice the word 'victim'? Well, that is exactly what I see. The bull talks about higher to his victims
The bear talks about lower to his victims
So there is no 'perma'bull or -bear. It's just bull and bear itself, and they transform from one to another, depending on whether they are 'in' (read: have bought), or 'out' read: have sold.
I've read on this forum, not that long ago, that a permabear doesnt exist. I think that's true. Because it doesn't make sense to think that a price will continue drop. But why would a permabull then DO exist? Why would a price continue to rise? I think it doesn't either. Neither of both exist. What DOES exist is a bull and a bear, and the bull can get claws and become a bear, and the bear can get horns and become a bull. Simply depending on what he needs his victim to do, buying, or selling. After him, of course.
So it's not a rosey picture all the time. It's a black/white picture instead. If I say/suggest something on this forum, it's what I do myself, and if it turns out to be wrong, I'm 'hurted' myself. On the Kitco forum I once created a topic titled 'will you hesitate when the next $32 occasion arrives' (something like that), because I read time after time about people that were scared by the downtrend and hadnt the guts to buy at $32, to then buy instead at $35 and even $40. I bought myself everytime $32 was revisited, without hesitating. At some point, as now is wellknown, that became a wrong decision, and there I was and am, with my (in meantime) $29-30 average, seeing now $20 since a year. I learnt to hesitate, in an educated manner, being that I take into account a number of things, that I follow on the fly, and the lower the price, the closer I follow them, as to identify the bottoms of the time.
For the rest, I just dont like people that 'make money' by misleading others on purpose. Who does, lol?
What wondered me many times is this:
We see on forums alot posts, technical, informational, data, talk about countries doing this or that, economical figures, lease and other rates, and so on.
Yet, I seem to have been the first ever (also on Kitco) mentioning the Comex total net position. Back in 2011, I noticed on http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=w1 a correlation between the green position trend line with the price. I started to wonder what that trend line ment, and where they got the data.
After many months, I found out it was the COT report, yet, I was unable to find the finviz figures there, so I had a number that I couldnt interprete.
Finally, after trying various calculation combination, I found out how finviz calculated that number. And then I started to understand what it meant, and its importance.
Now tell me, I'm not a futures trader. I knew nothing about it, since, I learnt some terminology but for the rest, practical and theoretical, I know nothing about it. How on earth is it possible that noone ever mentioned this on forums? It must be a crucial piece of data, since finviz.com puts in below every futures market price chart. So it's not like some thing hidden under the carpet.
If you think about it, there is only 1 explanation: alot DO use it, but are silent about it. They keep it for themselves.
And that illustrates the difference we're talking about. I see other people that stack silver like me, as buddies against the theft of the central planning thieves and the club parasites behind them. Others see people that stack silver, as milking cows.
And I believe this should be taken much more seriously into account, than is the case now.
Look at all the topics that ask about the price. Is it a good moment to buy? Do I have reason to regret my recent purchase? That just illustrates, how 'prone' people are to misleading. I NEVER asked what I should do with my money. Instead, I collected data and figured it out myself. And considering that I started buying silver, most of it, in february 2011, I could have done much worser, if I had asked and do what suggested. That recently by house digged up old topic, shows how flammatory people that talked about lower prices at the time of a high ($40), were treated. It's like they shit in church. Well, in meantime, I started to understand why.
This is different, they talk about higher (bull) when they sit ready to sell, and they talk about lower (bear) when they sit ready to buy back in.
So there is no 'perma' part.
I've read explanations about bull (market) bear (market).
Alot talk about the market alike it's some living person that thinks and acts. It's not. A market is a situation where people exchange stuff with eachother.
A few others actually focus on the 'bull' and 'bear' part, and the best description I came across is this one:
- a bull throws his victim in the air
- a bear pushes his victim till the ground.
Notice the word 'victim'? Well, that is exactly what I see. The bull talks about higher to his victims
The bear talks about lower to his victims
So there is no 'perma'bull or -bear. It's just bull and bear itself, and they transform from one to another, depending on whether they are 'in' (read: have bought), or 'out' read: have sold.
I've read on this forum, not that long ago, that a permabear doesnt exist. I think that's true. Because it doesn't make sense to think that a price will continue drop. But why would a permabull then DO exist? Why would a price continue to rise? I think it doesn't either. Neither of both exist. What DOES exist is a bull and a bear, and the bull can get claws and become a bear, and the bear can get horns and become a bull. Simply depending on what he needs his victim to do, buying, or selling. After him, of course.
So it's not a rosey picture all the time. It's a black/white picture instead. If I say/suggest something on this forum, it's what I do myself, and if it turns out to be wrong, I'm 'hurted' myself. On the Kitco forum I once created a topic titled 'will you hesitate when the next $32 occasion arrives' (something like that), because I read time after time about people that were scared by the downtrend and hadnt the guts to buy at $32, to then buy instead at $35 and even $40. I bought myself everytime $32 was revisited, without hesitating. At some point, as now is wellknown, that became a wrong decision, and there I was and am, with my (in meantime) $29-30 average, seeing now $20 since a year. I learnt to hesitate, in an educated manner, being that I take into account a number of things, that I follow on the fly, and the lower the price, the closer I follow them, as to identify the bottoms of the time.
For the rest, I just dont like people that 'make money' by misleading others on purpose. Who does, lol?
What wondered me many times is this:
We see on forums alot posts, technical, informational, data, talk about countries doing this or that, economical figures, lease and other rates, and so on.
Yet, I seem to have been the first ever (also on Kitco) mentioning the Comex total net position. Back in 2011, I noticed on http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=w1 a correlation between the green position trend line with the price. I started to wonder what that trend line ment, and where they got the data.
After many months, I found out it was the COT report, yet, I was unable to find the finviz figures there, so I had a number that I couldnt interprete.
Finally, after trying various calculation combination, I found out how finviz calculated that number. And then I started to understand what it meant, and its importance.
Now tell me, I'm not a futures trader. I knew nothing about it, since, I learnt some terminology but for the rest, practical and theoretical, I know nothing about it. How on earth is it possible that noone ever mentioned this on forums? It must be a crucial piece of data, since finviz.com puts in below every futures market price chart. So it's not like some thing hidden under the carpet.
If you think about it, there is only 1 explanation: alot DO use it, but are silent about it. They keep it for themselves.
And that illustrates the difference we're talking about. I see other people that stack silver like me, as buddies against the theft of the central planning thieves and the club parasites behind them. Others see people that stack silver, as milking cows.
And I believe this should be taken much more seriously into account, than is the case now.
Look at all the topics that ask about the price. Is it a good moment to buy? Do I have reason to regret my recent purchase? That just illustrates, how 'prone' people are to misleading. I NEVER asked what I should do with my money. Instead, I collected data and figured it out myself. And considering that I started buying silver, most of it, in february 2011, I could have done much worser, if I had asked and do what suggested. That recently by house digged up old topic, shows how flammatory people that talked about lower prices at the time of a high ($40), were treated. It's like they shit in church. Well, in meantime, I started to understand why.
BeHereNow said:
In 2012 dollars it was 11.42, which means that if you had bought in 1915 and sold in November 2008 (93 years later!), when it was $10.8 (in 2012 dollars) you would have been able to buy almost exactly the same stuff.
I don't know if this means that silver a good investment or a bad investment, but probably investing in property or farmland or forestland or shares would have given you a greater return. But as a means to diversify your assets, why not?
worldbubble
Active Member
we have silver - one in a kind!Cheepo said:
property ... yes, where? Russian Empire? in 5 year after 1915 nobody would care what you had
shares .... yes, what and where? Millions of companies existed, millions went bankrupt ...
and still, silver went through all storms and is here without any transformations
Hugh Mann said:
I'd better not comment on future silver price.
What about gold? I felt similar to you when I bought a few kilos of silver over a decade ago but I might just as well have bought gold.
Isn't it true that there's no VAT tax applied when you buy sovereigns in the U.K? There was an insightful, even seminal post here on the topic of the gold to silver ratio viewed over a decade time frame. The Gold/Silver ratio being simply a calculation of the number of ozs of silver that one oz of gold will buy. Over a decade this has barely budged so an argument could be made on the basis of this ratio that gold 10 years ago was as good as an investment as silver.
To complicate it there was a short period over the decade where it was significantly cheaper to buy silver than gold, but equally there was a short period where it was cheaper to buy gold than silver.
The other complication is that a decade is an arbitrary period to compare the two.
Still I'd argue there's a chance that you could do as well buying gold sovereigns as silver, and it's easier to store, and if you avoid VAT so much the better.
:lol: :lol: :lol:Cheepo said:
One of the dumbest comments ever made
I can buy a hunk of the shiny stuff with money I saved from eating at home instead of at the movie theater, farmland, not so easy.Cheepo said:
You use the historical silver charts to point out that silver has been $5, so will be $5.
GSR historical charts, for a longer period, show the ratio at about 16:1. So do you also conclude gold will be about $80 in the foreseeable future?
From 1800 to 1980 gold was under $50, so gold will not be $80, but $50?
Gold supply, not depleted. Silver, off to the land fills, depleting the useable supply.
I just don't follow your reasoning.
As is often said, primarily preservation of wealth, not so much an income producing commodity.
Most stackers say silver is silver, form does not matter.
What I see is a collector market for coins and specially formed silver that can be flipped as an income producing commodity. Spot price can be sideways, collector market climbs. Diversify.
To me silver is a good way to spend disposable income on multiple levels.
The stock market and other paper forms of wealth, now that is a throw of the dice.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Yet, it all depends on what existing silver stock owners do. Alot silver was bought during the past decade, as 'investment', and for sure, it will re-arrive on the market, they won't throw it in the sea. I don't know when the others that bought silver will sell, but one worlds annual supply/demand can undo the price effect of a demand increase of 10% every year, for a decade long. If that +10% demand doesnt happen, then the price will drop instead.spannermonkey said:
So I don't laugh or call dumb any scenario. The only thing I do call dumb is when there is nothing to back up a statement. Why would people sell their stacks, why would ETF shareholders sell their shares, will they return to a bank account that has a recordlow intrest rate? Will they buy stocks that sit on recordlevels? See, in order to make people sell a product, there needs to be a more promising product.
Despite I see now $20 instead of the $30 I bought at, I didn't regret a moment that I bought silver at all, I do regret the timing of my decisions, but if I hadnt bought at $30 I would still have bought silver now. To get rid of the bank account, and any dependency from the 'system' of theft. To manage my savings myself, instead of relying on others. I'm sure of X ounces silver. What are you sure of with a bank account? With stocks? With bonds? With any promise?
So IF alot existing silver stock owners would sell, and bring back $10, I won't be amongst them. Instead, I will just receive more ounces for every next purchase.
And if enough have this mentality, then that lower price won't arrive at all. And most importantly, the money for nothing club, those that DID sell, will fail to buy back in lower. Second frontrun attempt: FAIL.
Nabullion Dynamite
Active Member
I think we are going to be alright, it sucks but certainly should go up in our lifetimes. After watching the market a few months and buying a little here and there I purchased 250 oz and 1oz of gold hours before it plummeted. It lost .60oz and 40$oz on the gold before I even got it in my hand 
Not the best start but my plan is too sit on it for ALONG time, I'm 25 so have enough time to wait it out! All my reading from silver forums has convinced me that nobody has any clue whats really going to happen(me included).
Not the best start but my plan is too sit on it for ALONG time, I'm 25 so have enough time to wait it out! All my reading from silver forums has convinced me that nobody has any clue whats really going to happen(me included).
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Don't forget that property/farmland/forestland/shares and alot things, come with a maintainment cost (including various taxes / any forced upon costs) usually much bigger than the cost associated to store a pile silver. And things can depreciate, ie decrease in value, even with maintaining them.Cheepo said:
That buying of property did happen, and it ended in the 2008 housing crisis, where the value of houses crippled to 1/3 in a matter of time peanuts.
Aside, during the past century, there was a 'ginormous' economical progress. Can this be repeated, from today?