Has the Perth Mint ruined the Lunar Coin Market

hiho

hiho

Active Member
Silver Stacker
Not long into stacking I started collecting Lunar coins and was paying considerable premiums for gold and silver coins of various animalia. But since the 2012 Dragon release this market has gone stagnant if not backwards.

So has the PM stuffed the market or will there be a revival in years to come. The worst thing collectors hate is unpredictibilty on minatges and varieties going forward?
 
hiho said:
Not long into stacking I started collecting Lunar coins and was paying considerable premiums for gold and silver coins of various animalia. But since the 2012 Dragon release this market has gone stagnant if not backwards.

So has the PM stuffed the market or will there be a revival in years to come. The worst thing collectors hate is unpredictibilty on minatges and varieties going forward?
Click to expand...
Who Knows..

From what I remember , the PM lunar series starting with the first was just high premium bullion coins with some specialty products like proofs and they introduced the colored ones which not many people really cared about . Then later in the series the dragon really gained some interest and the whole series eventually took off as hot high quality low mintage coins with an interesting subject! Then comes series 2 again not many people gave a rats ass for the lunar mouse (1/2 , 2 , 5 , 10 1/2kilo!) The ox comes and goes and about the same (meanwhile the series 1 lunars are skyrocketing) , in comes the tiger quite a bit of interest towards the end of the year and gaining interest in the mouse and even the ox, the rabbits arrive with some interest and silver prices going to the moon..... But the rabbit overlooked by the ever anticipated year of the Dragon , possibly one of the most hyped up modern coins ever, immediately prices exploding to unequaled levels , Silver tanks! The perth mint releases every which kind of variety, boxed set , special limited edition , colored , high relief, gilded, varieties upon varieties,, The stated mintages become a scandal at the same time , they"re mint" the Kooks , red back spider and anything else .. and we end up here , asking this question???
 
Yeah they have, I stocked up on snakes at $39 hoping to flip but i'd be lucky to make $2 on them right now. They're in the core stack now, maturing, but that certainly was not the plan initially.

No more lunars for me looking forward, rather kooks while they're still around.
 
Well Series 2 bullion will never reach the average of series 1 Lunars because series 2 have a 300k mintage and series 1 on average less that 100k.
 
2. MINTAGES IN PRACTICE

a) For MAXIMUM MINTAGE coins:
Once the MAXIMUM MINTAGE is reached, the coin is pronounced 'sold out' and no further coins are minted. If a coin is not sold out, the mintage remains open until such time it becomes sold out (MAXIMUM MINTAGE is reached). On occasion, The Perth Mint may close-off sales and declare the mintage (DECLARED MINTAGE), after which no further coins can be manufactured.

b) For UNLIMITED MINTAGE coins:
i. Coins of an UNLIMITED MINTAGE can continue to be manufactured whilst there is deemed to be interest in the product. The Perth Mint can cease manufacture and declare a final sales figure as the DECLARED MINTAGE after which no further coins can be manufactured.

ii. Some UNLIMITED MINTAGE coins may be sold on a MINT-TO-ORDER basis. This means that there is a specific time period during which the coin can be minted in unlimited quantities. Once that time period has expired, a mintage is declared, and no further coins may be minted.

http://www.perthmintbullion.com/Blog/au/Blog.aspx



Maximum Mintage: The total quantity of a coin that will ever be struck.

Unlimited Mintage: Relates to the completely unrestricted number of a coin that can be struck.

Declared Mintage: Is the final production figure for a coin that has been closed-off before its Maximum Mintage is reached; or the final production figure for a Mint-to-Order coin or an Unlimited Mintage coin.

http://www.perthmintbullion.com/au/Our-Bullion-Products/Mintage-Policy.aspx


All The 1oz Silver Series 2 Lunar coins are Sold-Out and will never be re-minted because they have reached their MAXIMUM mintage.
This includes the:
2008 Mouse
2009 Ox
2010 Tiger
2011 Rabbit
2012 Dragon
2013 Snake http://www.perthmintbullion.com/au/Blog/Blog.aspx?CntTagID=93d09587-7d27-4d76-a546-8e104940960a

All The 1oz Gold Series 2 Lunar coins are Sold-Out and will never be re-minted because they have reached their MAXIMUM mintage.
This includes the:
2008 Mouse
2009 Ox
2010 Tiger
2011 Rabbit
2012 Dragon
2013 Snake http://www.perthmintbullion.com/au/Blog/Blog.aspx?CntTagID=93d09587-7d27-4d76-a546-8e104940960a

Gold mintage
http://www.perthmint.com.au//docume...ld_Bullion_Series_Two_2008_-_2011_Current.pdf


Silver mintage
http://www.perthmint.com.au//docume...er_Bullion_Series_Two_2008_-_2011_Current.pdf


ALL of the Bullion Gold and Silver coins such as the 1/2oz, 2oz, 5oz and 10oz silver bullion coins come under the category of unlimited mintage except that Perth declare the number of coins minted in each category and at the end of the year the mintage is declared and no further coins will be minted.


Perth Mint Unveils 2013 Australian Bullion Coin Program

See - THE AUSTRALIAN PRECIOUS METALS COIN PROGRAM

Silver Lunars

No mintage limit applies to 1 kilo, 10oz, 5oz, 2oz and 1/2oz coins. Except
for the 1 kilo release, production of these coins will close at the end of 2013
and The Perth Mint will declare each coin's official mintage.
Production of 1 kilo coins will cease at the end of the series.
A maximum of 200 10 kilo coins will be produced on a mint-to-order
basis. However, production will close at the end of 2013, when the
coin's actual mintage will be declared.
The Perth Mint will produce up to 300,000 1oz coins. Production will
cease when the mintage is fully sold or at the end of the series,
whichever comes first.

Scroll half way down the page to get to the info about the lunars.
http://www.perthmintbullion.com/images/blog/Silver-Bullion-Brochure-2013.pdf


Gold Lunars

No mintage limit applies to 1 kilo, 10oz, 2oz, 1/2oz, 1/4oz, 1/10oz and
1/20oz coins. However, production will close at the end of 2013, when
The Perth Mint will declare each coin's official mintage.A maximum of 100 10 kilo coins will be produced on a mint-to-order
basis. However, production will close at the end of 2013, when the
coin's actual mintage will be declared.
The Perth Mint will produce no more than 30,000 1oz coins.
Production will cease when the mintage is fully sold or at the end of
the series, whichever comes first.


Gold Bullion Brochure
http://www.perthmintbullion.com/images/blog/Gold-Bullion-Brochure-2013.pdf


If you have followed previous on-line brochures from Perth for their previous mintages, the wording is the same.


The bottom line is, the bullion gold and silver coins are DECLARED at the end of the year and will not be re-minted.

We all know by now the silver Kilo coins for the series 2 will not be declared TO BE DECLARED (TBD) until the end of the series in 2019.

I'll continue to buy all of the lunar bullion coins, they are the best Perth have to offer.

H
 
I've never had a harder time selling a complete Series 1 set in the box, or Series 2 set in the box than I have now. I'm not even getting offers PM'd. Pretty discouraging.
 
heyimderrick said:
I've never had a harder time selling a complete Series 1 set in the box, or Series 2 set in the box than I have now. I'm not even getting offers PM'd. Pretty discouraging.
Click to expand...
Your price was awesome! I almost bit, but.................Given the PM's business choices................. :( sorry.
 
Joker77 said:
hiho said:
case in point, when series II dragon released these were fetching upwards of $90, now cant fetch $60'
http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-34069-for-sale-series-2-2009-1oz-lunar-ox-roll.html
Click to expand...

Dragon s2 was and it is over-priced now, people wanted to Dragon s2 repeat success of Dragon s1. Speculation and same people put hands on huge orders and they keep it to death or make u pay.
Click to expand...

AH NO
Huge orders ?
Nobody got huge orders of Dragons ;)
what happened they were putting in new machinery & that caused production to stop while the demand was on.
Once they started to make more the demand & price fell reall quick
 
Agreed, the value of a Series 1 complete set has tumbled. Can sellers even get $1k now for the 12 bullion coins? I remember them going for $1,200 a set easy here a year ago.
 
I think and hope the core coins of the series (Silver 1oz proof, silver three coin proof set, 1oz silver bullion) will always have a decent premium. Not as much as when silver almost hit $50 or when the dragon came out and everybody went crazy, but still more than most other coins. All the other variants (coloured, gided, this and that) will be a huge gamble. Some might end up being a winner, most will end up losers. The flood in dragon variants definitely killed off demand massively. There are only this many collectors and they only have that much money to spend. We can't all buy all variants and it was inevitable that the market got saturated and people lost interest. Particularly combined with the declining spot prices.

I think some really stupid and short-sighted decisions have been made that will cost many collectors and coin dealers dearly. Myself included. If the mint continues releasing milions of variants for every zodiac and doesn't declare their mintages as they should, then I have doubts the demand will ever reach old levels. But if they get their act together and if spot goes up again, then everything is possible.
 
Matthew 26:14 said:
Agreed, the value of a Series 1 complete set has tumbled. Can sellers even get $1k now for the 12 bullion coins? I remember them going for $1,200 a set easy here a year ago.
Click to expand...

Yep, I sold multiple S1 sets with the original red presentation box between $1,200 - $1,250 USD.

Most loose coins were going for $85+ with dragon, snake, horse and ox all pushing $100 or above.
 
hiho said:
Not long into stacking I started collecting Lunar coins and was paying considerable premiums for gold and silver coins of various animalia. But since the 2012 Dragon release this market has gone stagnant if not backwards.

So has the PM stuffed the market or will there be a revival in years to come. The worst thing collectors hate is unpredictibilty on minatges and varieties going forward?
Click to expand...

I can only respond with 4 simple words to sum it up : third party counter risk

You're paying extra on the promise someone else will retain the relative collectable value of your purchase.

How many times was I yelled at on SS for even questioning the market after the Dragon release?

If you can buy something that has an 'inbuilt' premium at the same cost as normal coinage (that's how I got my 1oz tigers), then sure, why not? No downside risk and anything else is gravy.

But there's a real danger in buying into a mintage as there is on buying *anything* that's a limited edition - whether it be art, toys or yes, even gold and silver coins.

You have to weigh up the risks and know that at the end of the day, no matter who makes the claim, if there's third party counter risk involved it can come back to haunt you.


I don't mind a small premium on minted product, that's usually very small and easily transferrable. But paying double and triple spot in extra premium on top hoping you can make even MORE premium later?

That's just gambling IMHO and you have to accept the risk that goes along with it.
 
i'm still buying 1oz lunars every year for my collection.
Had to pay extra for ox and tiger cause they were rare (70 for ox and tigers) This was back when silver was still hyped up so I don't mind. I didn't buy to flip.

got dragons for 39 and snakes for 36ish so i'm pretty happy

if you buy em to flip for profit, i don't know what your thinking, they are just bullion with a pretty stamp on it :) Also, apparently according to a person here, you are a parasite for trying to flip the dragons for profit, but its ok to flip other things... :rolleyes:
 
i get much better odds on the next at flemington than on a pretty stamped PM coin and the pay out is much better.

sticking to low premium bars etc...

if we all seem to believe silver and gold is going up up up then why take the big risk on PM pretty pictures and stamps.
 
The pretty stuff shold be bought by collectors if you want to flip it good luck I say.

I will continue to buy any of the bullion coins I can at close to spot. (however finding a 10 oz mouse at close to spot should be quite hard).

Give it 20 odd years and these coins will grow in popularity again.

Nick
 
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