Has anyone on SS backed up the truck?

Lustre said:
If a pullback doesn’t come, you’ve lost nothing. Capital preservation is nothing to fret about.
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I've only made a small buy as I didn't expect the price to go up so much. A near 50% rise in just 3 weeks is crazy. Furthermore, I've not bought the bottom on that faithful Monday, otherwise, it will be more than 70% gain. There were a lot of bearish opinions on miners at that time because people expect the mines to be closed due to the coronavirus. Some mines have closed, but prices still shoot up.

Lustre said:
Given the nature of the problem, you can expect a number of further drops. The last one was like a bungee jump down. The big one is typically a bottoming out over time leading to capitulation. We are not there yet.
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Yes, this is what I thought but the rally in gold miners is crazy, prices are almost back to the peak. I won't be buying more at this price level. If gold corrects, miners will come crashing back down.

Lustre said:
And if it doesn’t come, is that a bad thing? It means all is better in the world and people can get back to business (industrial demand!).
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Definitely!
 
I bought my stack over the last couple of years but I'm still buying some.
I finally got my $5 Liberty half eagle from jmbullion ended up getting an 1881 so that's cool. Only took 3 weeks with paper check so not bad haha.
I've had good luck with those big dealers so I wasnt too worried.

Even at $20 to $25 usd I wouldnt be concerned about overpaying. Especially being a long termer.

I dont know how much I will sell when prices skyrocket since it's a savings for me but I would like to convert to gold at some point in the next 30 years.
I do need a well drilled so if I could sell an oz of gold for 5k I probably would. Until then I'll save cash. I'm in no hurry to sell anything and dont need to.
Even tho we are essential workers our hours have suffered so gonna take a little longer than I expected.
I'm getting the Robin hood app if any of you are familiar. I want to start buying a few things and delving into the world of trading.
Maybe a couple hundred bucks wouldnt be too risky to start with.
 
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JohnnyBravo300 said:
I bought my stack over the last couple of years but I'm still buying some.
I finally got my $5 Liberty half eagle from jmbullion ended up getting an 1881 so that's cool. Only took 3 weeks with paper check so not bad haha.
I've had good luck with those big dealers so I wasnt too worried.

Even at $20 to $25 usd I wouldnt be concerned about overpaying. Especially being a long termer.

I dont know how much I will sell when prices skyrocket since it's a savings for me but I would like to convert to gold at some point in the next 30 years.
I do need a well drilled so if I could sell an oz of gold for 5k I probably would. Until then I'll save cash. I'm in no hurry to sell anything and dont need to.
Even tho we are essential workers our hours have suffered so gonna take a little longer than I expected.
I'm getting the Robin hood app if any of you are familiar. I want to start buying a few things and delving into the world of trading.
Maybe a couple hundred bucks wouldnt be too risky to start with.
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Be careful, Robin hood are notorious for screwing over their members. Also the US market is a true scam right now. IMF has declared a recession but the big stocks are making daily gains? What sort of a fucked up bear market is that?
 
A big player is buying up stocks; I wonder who that could be? :rolleyes:
Now, who has a printing press?
Yay, everyone has a printing press, but someone has a the usd special edition that everyone loves. :eek: :D
 
66rounds said:
Be careful, Robin hood are notorious for screwing over their members. Also the US market is a true scam right now. IMF has declared a recession but the big stocks are making daily gains? What sort of a fucked up bear market is that?
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The market is not homogeneous. If you study close enough, some stocks are offering good value without much risk. A couple of miners offered very good value 3 weeks ago. PAAS was one of them. For me, I don't bother about upside - only downside. Most important is the company doesn't go bankrupt or needs to raise more shares and dilute my shareholding.
 
Hi all, happy to have found this site. Have been doing plenty of reading on the net lately regarding buying and trading silver but reading comments and opinions in real time and from the last several years from Kiwis and Aussies that do this is invaluable so thanks for having me here.
I am new to precious metals, having come from sharemarket and am hoping I can get some advice. I have a bit of cash lying around and wanted a medium term (2-5 years) place to put some of it. I bought my first silver bars here in NZ the other day, seems to be a shortage so I bought some 1 kg bars on the secondary market from a NZ based retailer.
Am wanting to put some more cash into physical silver so was wondering if anyone had an opinion on what I should do next... buy more secondary market bars (from supplier with good rep) at $729 or buy new Perth Mint from Aus at around $940?
Cheers...
 
SHB said:
buy more secondary market bars (from supplier with good rep) at $729
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When you decide to sell, most (if not all) Bullion dealers don't care what type of silver it is - you still get the same buy back price.

$729 for kilo bars is an excellent price.
 
mongrelmaple said:
$729 for a kilo bar is $55 under spot at the time of this comment, with spot at $24.40
That’s a red flag, no dealer in their right mind is selling that cheap.
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Was looking through their reviews on google, all 5 stars going back several years so went off that. Is there anyone you guys would suggest not dealing with in NZ in particular?
 
...apologies, just checked and got my figures messed up..its $709 for 2 x 10oz bar so $35 p/oz. Well above spot price but I guess thats the way it is currently.
 
SHB said:
...apologies, just checked and got my figures messed up..its $709 for 2 x 10oz bar so $35 p/oz. Well above spot price but I guess thats the way it is currently.
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Too expensive. I got 10 ouncers for $260 AUD on the 13th March. This is 36% more than I paid for. I know the situation is different now, but it's still too expensive.
 
SHB said:
Was looking through their reviews on google, all 5 stars going back several years so went off that. Is there anyone you guys would suggest not dealing with in NZ in particular?
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Hi & welcome to the forum and great to see another kiwi has joined

In answer to your question there is one NZ dealer in particular I would be very cautious of dealing with and without naming them they are based in Tauranga

Happy to chat via PM if interested

Cheers
 
No backing up the truck. Enjoying the tube of Roos I bought just before the crisis. It's a mistake to pay these premiums for retail physical right now – you'll lose money.
 
Silver prices are interesting to analyse right now. Back in 2011 the signal for the huge price rally was "backwardation". That is the technical term for when the futures contract prices are lower than the spot prices. Typically silver is in a permanent state of "contango" which is the opposite, ie futures being higher than spot. But when there is a supply shortage the participants in the futures market become concerned that the shortage may leave them unable to deliver physical silver under their futures contracts. This causes participants to buy silver in the spot market (as a hedge for future delivery) forcing spot prices up beyond futures prices... backwardation. This is what happened in 2011 before the huge rally. Despite what we see as an obvious shortage now, this is not what has happened since mid-march. Instead futures are in a heightened state of contango.
I have been trying to analyse why this is the case because the answer may signal when it is time to BACK UP THE TRUCK with what ever type of silver you can get your hands on. It may be that institutional players are not seeing this shortage yet because they trade in the large denomination bars that are delivered in the futures market, but my view is that a shortage even here has to come. The best explanation for the lack of a shortage right now seems to be that the drop in the stockmarket caused a huge liquidation in physical silver to meet margin requirements on stock trading accounts and that this physical silver is still washing through the markets. I think it is possible that the stock market will have a second wave of selling and maybe another liquidation event. I will be looking for the "backwardtion" signal to buy. If anyone on here, particularly a commodity trader has an opinion on this view, it would good to hear.
 
The best explanation for the lack of a shortage right now seems to be that the drop in the stockmarket caused a huge liquidation in physical silver to meet margin requirements on stock trading accounts and that this physical silver is still washing through the markets
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It’s not a lack of a shortage

If it was I would not have not missed out on that certified MS 63 1921 Peace Dollar at Apmex while I twiddled my fingers for a single day! Now it is gone and all that is left is grieving.

It’s a shortage, not a lack of one.

And for a number of reasons right now. Firstly, major primary silver mines in the world are shut down.
Also the US mint says “TBA” for any silver product outside of April.
In Australia, look at ABC’s site. All they have on offer is some cool dog tags at 80-100+ dollars.

The best explanation I think is nobody is selling at the dictated spot price.
 
Yes I agree with you there is definitely a shortage in retail physical silver and it is pushing up retail prices and making it hard to get your hands on physical silver.
However I'm sure that you will agree that the spot price is low. The spot price is driven by supply and demand in the institutional space. It seems to me then that there must be a lack of demand or an oversupply to keep this price low. The explanation I gave above was the most credible that I heard for this low spot price, but I am not saving it is right... I'd just like to understand what is happening because I am tempted to buy spot on the basis that demand in the institutional space might be about to increased. The backwardation could be a sign of this.

BTW I get that if you don't hold it, you don't own it, but buying spot short term at leverage on a trading platform might sometimes makes sense.
 
President Trump said:
I will be looking for the "backwardtion" signal to buy. If anyone on here, particularly a commodity trader has an opinion on this view, it would good to hear.
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Thanks for the interesting view. I first came to know contango from reports saying that oil is in contango because there's no where to store the excess oil so people had to dump oil hence the plunging spot.

Am I right to say if backwardation happens, the price for SIJ20 (Apr '20) will be lower than SIY00 (Cash)?

Do you know how the future price is determined?

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/SI*0/futures-prices
 
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