HARVEY ORGAN : Is Silver Really Worth $424/oz?

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\Interesting from Daily Reckoning today.

Meanwhile, the latest numbers from Robert Shiller tell us that the US stock market is 33% overvalued. Our guess is that stocks will go down much more than that number implies. Markets tend to overshoot in both directions.

And the latest news from China tells us the Middle Kingdom could blow up at any time. Nearly half the GDP is spent on capital improvements (usually things that involve concrete and steel). It's breathtaking to see it. But there's no way you can make that many capital investment decisions without making some colossal blunders.

And from Europe comes a bleak and foreboding assessment: European banks have five times as much government debt as they did 3 years ago...and even US banks have nearly $350 billion worth of debt from Europe's wave-washed periphery. Investors are selling off Spanish bonds; another chapter in the debt crisis could be at hand.

Dear reader, you are faced with a grave and dangerous situation. In front of you is the Valley of Death for investors.

America's stock market could crash at any moment. Its bonds are slipping. Its homes are sinking. China could collapse into a heap. Europe could come unglued. Trade could fall off a cliff. Interest rates could rise everywhere. Another great depression could be coming soon.

And yet, CEOs are optimistic, says one report. Investors are overwhelmingly bullish, says another. And your captains are telling you to "charge ahead!"

Our advice: Take cover!
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worth subscribing in my opinion. Very very conservative opinions, but they help me.

www.dailyreckoning.com.au
 
Good thread ladies and gentlemen , This little mouse might take the initiative and do a Tutankhamun in the deep au waters of the south pole; by the time they find this little black duck, us humanoids might not have little toes and noone will give a rats pants about any of this lol . Perhaps ill be preserved long enough to tell an intuitive tale . Did intent break any laws ? . Umm should the solution be colloidal silver ? . On a serious'r note one may see that the Ruskis and the Chine have started their alternate currency trades as an alternative to the USD. I would have thought that there would have been alot more discussion about this matter thou it didnt seem to have much impact on commodities . If the rumours are true re: a simple shift in exchanges and albeit london to shanghai and or otherwise a notional impact on whats worth what and its a long shot but could JPM have seen the writing on the wall ?. Cheers
 
It's not so much as predicting when it will happen. As you say, anyone can do this and eventually if you wait long enough you will be right. Rather it's being aware that it could happen and then being reading and taking the appropriate action when signs start emerging that it is almost upon us. That's all. :)
 
Matthew 26:14 said:
boston said:
Forge said:
Better question is whether gold will go to $50,000 an ounce. Can, to either question, is a given.
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Another question. If gold does indeed go to $50,000. How are you going to cash it in without the usual regulatory authorities ie ATO etc finding out, and wanting their slice of the action?
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Easy to get around that matter. How do the ATO know WHEN I bought my lump of gold? For all they know, I bought it a week ago at say $1,350 an ounce. A week later say gold price is the same, I sell it, so no cap gains.

To work out cap gains, its got to be: What you bought the asset for LESS what you sold it for. The ATO sure can know what you SOLD it for, but how do they know what you bought it for? They dont, so they cant know what your capital gain or loss actually is.

I believe in the US there is some attempt to require ID to buy precious metals, not sure if its law or not though. I also understand in the UK, gold/silver coins cannot be taxed because they are currency. EG. $1 silver coin bought for $30, sold for $100 has no tax because its legal tender.

Not sure on the taxing of currency coins in Australia though.
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In the US and probably AU, it doesn't work that way. They would essentially give you a zero cost basis if you didn't prove what you paid for the silver. You would end up with some basis with negotiation, but the taxation authorities are not going to take your word that you recently bought something and can't find the receipt. They would tell you to get another receipt from your dealer or show the cancelled check where you paid for the silver.
 
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