Guy;s what do you think about this guy's comments regarding silver.

Say what you will about RawDog's style of communication, but the guy is smart when it comes to how to invest his money. He stacks silver when he sees the opportunity to get it lower than he can sell it easily for. He sells silver when he knows it's a good time to sell and move that capital into another asset (could be gold or some other asset). That's being smart with his money, regardless if he irritates some people or not.




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What I especially like him for (I never watched a video, just based on talk about him, I think he had / has a website) is that he says what he thinks and also does himself. That, is rare. If we were all RawDogs with eachother, the central planning thieves may fail quicker and harder.
 
Pirocco said:
lshallperish said:
There was a 260 million ounce demand back in 2013.
U.S mint was sold out on silver eagels
2005 china used a million on solar panels and in 2013 they used 35million
If the industrial usage did not drive the price then I have no idea what did.. because it is not people like you and me that drove that price..
"ohhh it's all about supply and demand" yet what we pull out from the ground is not enough for the world...
Click to expand...
Data proves that it wasn't industrial demand.
Data proves that it was coin & bar sales.
On top of this, remember when ETF's came into existence?
I don't know if those are people like you and me. But they are people, that bought. Some ceased to buy more, and the annual demand they caused disappeared. Mines / recyclers kept on producing, until 2013, where recycling dropped quite big.
See, in order to draw conclusions about the price, one should take ALL that affects the price into account. Not just this and that. If we would look at just the mining of 2012 versus the mining of 2013, we could claim that silver production increased. Now add recycling to it, and it jumps in the other direction much more. Gradually add further things, and gradually you find explanations.

There is another recent topic here, where I posted an analysis of 2012-2013, for the gold market. Initially, I arrived on a 50% error. Precisely. That was so weird that I could only have missed something. And indeed, I had forgotten that the spot price includes the futures market hedge. I took then all the COT reports of 2012 and 2013, and calculated the averages of these years.
Guess what: it was near exactly the missing 50%
And if you think about it, that's just normal, because a futures hedge is ment against speculators; and all the trader classes combined, should hedge as much ounces as the stockpile change of the speculators. Every 5000 ounces more bought/sold in the cash market, causes the creation of a futures contract, causing the cash price is not being driven up according to 5000, but according to 10000 ounces. This all of course isn't directly / instantly, but take the year averages and it becomes telltaling clear.

Any gaps between both, means some trading occurred 'under the radar', being entities exempted from reporting duties, alike institutionals on black pools, or maybe some inbetween top level nodes trades, enjoying the same privileges. For ex, the 2012-2013 for the silver market had a gap of 200 Moz. 200 Moz more sold than the price change explained.

Taking ALL into effect. You can list a dozen items that should push the silver price up, if there is 1 or any other number other items, with the opposite effect, everything expressed in ounces, then that side will end up as 'winner' as most influential side.
Click to expand...


Got all my hopes up and shit and now it went all down hill. Can you tell me why you put money into silver? I use to think that silver would go up to atleast 100 per ounce by the year 2020 due to all these manipulations and such.
 
lshallperish said:
Got all my hopes up and shit and now it went all down hill. Can you tell me why you put money into silver? I use to think that silver would go up to atleast 100 per ounce by the year 2020 due to all these manipulations and such.
Click to expand...
I put my money into silver to show my middlefinger to the central planning thieves and their buddies.
I didn't have price expectations.
Price expectations are useless since the relative to other prices matters not the relative to zero.
My goal was to try to evade the central planned theft.
If I have to lose (due to paying too much), I rather prefer to lose to another silver stacker than to them.
I try to make better decisions. That's work, not hope.
 
I agree with you there Pirocco, I would rather lose my hard earned cash by making a few poor decisions than have it stolen off me like the banks did in Cyprus.
 
It doesn't need any Cyprus to get your purchasing power stolen.
Just some years deposited, but actually lent out to lazybutts, that buy stuff with it, driving prices of stuff up, while banks make sure that my average 'interest' rate is too low to compensate for it, then I want to buy stuff, have to do that at the higher prices, byebye purchasing power.
So what do I do: I buy stuff directly. Thing is, can't stockpile bread/whatever for decades so have to buy something to store the value, and those markets they frontrun too, thereby stealing too, so have to evade paying the part of the price they were responsible for, which in turn requires some ways to measure it. To screw the thieves, more have to do this, hence I publish numbers and blabla now and then.
 
26/08/2014 37319 $19.39 <- same price, 37319x5000=186.6 Moz silver hedged in the spot/cash market.
19/08/2014 37383 $19.40
12/08/2014 43726 $19.98
05/08/2014 48203 $19.82
29/07/2014 56583 $20.530
22/07/2014 58347 $20.860
15/07/2014 58696 $20.760
08/07/2014 58018 $21.070
01/07/2014 51955 $21.000
24/06/2014 42987 $20.670
17/06/2014 22838 $19.640
10/06/2014 14322 $19.210
03/06/2014 9640 $18.780
27/05/2014 14230 $19.08
20/05/2014 17597 $19.44 <- 17597x5000=88Moz silver hedged in the spot/cash market.

Every 70Moz (very rough figure based on average position and price movements in recent years) is about a price dollar.
186.6-88 Moz = 98.6 Moz which thus is about 1.41 price dollars.
So when the future hedge will be decreased to that same 20/05/2014 amount, $19.39-1.41=$18.
So just like last week, $18 is worth waiting for, and $17 too if the hedge is dumped again to decade recordlows.
Around the 9/11 crisis, the hedge had a cluster of about 10 of these lows. The Asian Contagion Crisis had 5.
We already have had 10 in the present, most of them during the period late may to early juli 2013.

We are now 2/3 of a typical 3 months price cycle in recent years. End september/october would then be another one.
This all on condition that no new elements pop up.
Conclusion: things changed again to the downside. If the futures hedge in the price is higher at a same price, then it means others sold, and they replaced them.
It's not sure that the hedge will be lowered further, sometimes they hold a high one for years alike mid 2009-early 2011. But then ETFs were buying alot. Not this time. So don't bet on it.
 
lshallperish said:
Got all my hopes up and shit and now it went all down hill. Can you tell me why you put money into silver? I use to think that silver would go up to atleast 100 per ounce by the year 2020 due to all these manipulations and such.
Click to expand...

OK. Go back to early 2011 videos where Rawdog called it and got out before the may crash
 
libertadiac said:
lshallperish said:
Got all my hopes up and shit and now it went all down hill. Can you tell me why you put money into silver? I use to think that silver would go up to atleast 100 per ounce by the year 2020 due to all these manipulations and such.
Click to expand...

OK. Go back to early 2011 videos where Rawdog called it and got out before the may crash
Click to expand...
Know what, this is exactly what I meant.
I was a couple months in silver back then, I saw price running up from $32 to $50 and had a hard time to understand how people could be so dumb that they paid prices that went even beyond the dollar creation, let alone the spending of them.
I saw people on the Kitco forum ridiculizing those that had the same thought as me (although I was newbie then, hadn't much to say on the forum, just mostly read passively).
I also saw such price fall coming (anyone with the slightest feel for reality should have), and I placed 2 posts to say it. Just like Rawdog (can't check it, just assume you're right) then.
https://www.kitcomm.com/showpost.php?p=1315746&postcount=26
https://www.kitcomm.com/showpost.php?p=1307963&postcount=26
Back then I didn't know what a futures market was so that JP Morgan mentioning was just from unawareness.

This was a non-Rawdogger:

https://www.kitcomm.com/search.php?...rteronly=1&exactname=1&searchuser=theplantguy
Page 4 is that period.
$38 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=79452 04 april 2011 "Great way to start the week......don't you think?"
$39 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=79517 05 april 2011 "39 ...One more step up the ladder"
$40 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=79723 07 april 2011 "Thursday..............Yet another up day"
$41 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80243 13 april 2011 "Hump Day...........Up Day"
$42 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80318 14 april 2011 "Killer Thursday............Movin' on up"
$43 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80419 15 april 2011 "A Fabulous Friday............Great Finish For The Week"
$44 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80679 19 april 2011 "Monday.........Up Up and Away"
$45.5 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80932 20 april 2011 "A Whale of a Wednesday............45+"
$46.50 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81069 21 april 2011 "A Thundering Thursday...............Look at that puppy go!!"
$49.50 25 april 2011 PEAK 1 - FIRST PROFITGRAB
$45 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81462 25 april 2011 "Monday Mayhem.............Y'all survive? Monday Mayhem............Y'all survive? What a day. Actually, not all that bad. The long term trend is still up. Just a minor bump. A "little" more volatility than usual."
$46 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81576 26 april 2011 "A downturn of 2 days or 2 weeks is not significant in the over all scope of things"
$49.50 28 april 2011 PEAK 2
$48 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81937 29 april 2011 "Silver..........Something to consider"
$44 1 may 2011 SECOND PROFITGRAB
$33 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81423 6 may 2011 "Silver...If you are never going to sell, what benefit is it to you?"

Get the difference?
How funny (sick?) is it?
Many thousands (just a guess) must have sit on the edge of their chair with their fist hovering their 'SELL' button. Every price dollar is 70 Moz. Price mowed down $18. Over 1 worlds total annual supply/demand must have bought, and sold, during march and april. 1200 Moz or so.
Yet, on forums it was all to the moon and $doubletoday and last chance to buy in etcetera.
How obvious (sick?) is it?
They needed suckers to pay those higher prices, and their profit, and that's why you didn't hear anything but moons and last chance and bah.
How I know aboves quoted user sold near that $49?
Because someone else praised and thanked him, for his 'hint' (private message?) to get out.

What this user did opened my eyes, and it's when I ceased to believe anything anymore just like that. Whoever claims it, professional trader, guru, dealer, ... Because vested interest talk puts them together in the same bucket anyway.
 
Pirocco said:
libertadiac said:
lshallperish said:
Got all my hopes up and shit and now it went all down hill. Can you tell me why you put money into silver? I use to think that silver would go up to atleast 100 per ounce by the year 2020 due to all these manipulations and such.
Click to expand...

OK. Go back to early 2011 videos where Rawdog called it and got out before the may crash
Click to expand...
$33 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81423 6 may 2011 "Silver...If you are never going to sell, what benefit is it to you?"

Get the difference?
How funny (sick?) is it?
Many thousands (just a guess) must have sit on the edge of their chair with their fist hovering their 'SELL' button. Every price dollar is 70 Moz. Price mowed down $18. Over 1 worlds total annual supply/demand must have bought, and sold, during march and april. 1200 Moz or so.
Yet, on forums it was all to the moon and $doubletoday and last chance to buy in etcetera.
How obvious (sick?) is it?
They needed suckers to pay those higher prices, and their profit, and that's why you didn't hear anything but moons and last chance and bah.
How I know aboves quoted user sold near that $49?
Because someone else praised and thanked him, for his 'hint' (private message?) to get out.

What this user did opened my eyes, and it's when I ceased to believe anything anymore just like that. Whoever claims it, professional trader, guru, dealer, ... Because vested interest talk puts them together in the same bucket anyway.
Click to expand...


I would love to reread the may 6 one, but the link goes to 25th, and I've long lost my Kitco login details.
 
libertadiac said:
Pirocco said:
libertadiac said:
OK. Go back to early 2011 videos where Rawdog called it and got out before the may crash
Click to expand...
$33 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81423 6 may 2011 "Silver...If you are never going to sell, what benefit is it to you?"

Get the difference?
How funny (sick?) is it?
Many thousands (just a guess) must have sit on the edge of their chair with their fist hovering their 'SELL' button. Every price dollar is 70 Moz. Price mowed down $18. Over 1 worlds total annual supply/demand must have bought, and sold, during march and april. 1200 Moz or so.
Yet, on forums it was all to the moon and $doubletoday and last chance to buy in etcetera.
How obvious (sick?) is it?
They needed suckers to pay those higher prices, and their profit, and that's why you didn't hear anything but moons and last chance and bah.
How I know aboves quoted user sold near that $49?
Because someone else praised and thanked him, for his 'hint' (private message?) to get out.

What this user did opened my eyes, and it's when I ceased to believe anything anymore just like that. Whoever claims it, professional trader, guru, dealer, ... Because vested interest talk puts them together in the same bucket anyway.
Click to expand...


I would love to reread the may 6 one, but the link goes to 25th, and I've long lost my Kitco login details.
Click to expand...
I copied a wrong link, should have been https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread....never-going-to-sell-what-benefit-is-it-to-you - and it's from 7 not 6 may

While searching for it I came across this, that I didn't see until now, a day earlier:
6 may 2011 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread....old-physical-at-the-top&p=1346165#post1346165
A 5 minute call to my bullion dealer. A little friendly haggling over price, and the deal was done. Truck picked up my silver on Wed, funds wired to my account today. You need a very good relationship with your dealer. I've talked to him at least once a week for almost 10 years.
Click to expand...
Just shows the difference between the dozen positivity threads, the bla bla, and the opposite action.
He just needed some suckers willing to pay that high price.

Btw, just create a new account?
And 2nd btw, looking at profile requires login, but searching posts not, https://www.kitcomm.com/search.php?do=finduser&userid=24053&contenttype=vBForum_Post&showposts=113
 
Thanks - remember spending hours reading that forum, while the world was distracted by Bin laden.
I really can't be bothered with a new account.
And, Pirocco, I appreciate your posts - you bring a perspective which uses original thought, although not always accurate it's a refreshing change from the recycled bullshit. The fact that English may not be your first language, yet you express yourself better than many on this forum is also impressive.
 
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