GSR turning around soon?

I’ve been reading that GSR will only turn if inflation takes off. Which means the world had been suffering from deflationary pressure the last couple of years.
 
leo25 said:
Why do you say dunny rolls are a supply chain issue? Aren’t all our toilet paper made in Australia?
Click to expand...
Apparently Australia is 80% self-sufficient in toilet paper, however even if they were 100% Australian made, it makes no difference and was still a supply-chain issue.

I reference it analogously to the food manufacturer I am currently involved with - 100% Australian made and owned, they
supply one of the large 2 supermarket chains Australia-wide with an in-house brand of food staple. T​
hey always have 6 months supply of the product in storage, but only stock their warehouse with 3 weeks worth of retail packaged stock. The reason is warehouse space - retail packages take up a lot more room than bulk storage.
When panic buying struck in February, they received 4 weeks worth of retail orders in one week, which completed depleted all warehouse stocks instantly. Packing 24/7 for the next 8 weeks has only recently managed to get on top of supply issues, especially to distribution centres in cities like Perth and Hobart where lead times are up to a week.
Put simply, it became a supply-chain issue.
 
I don't think the GSR is a valid or useful statistic for valuing either metal. What is the angle supposed to be? Does it help predict anything? Are there any experts or traders here who can comment on whether it's used in finance or the exchanges?

I guess one test would be to model it and see if it predicts price movement, with some latency.
 
Alloy said:
I don't think the GSR is a valid or useful statistic for valuing either metal. What is the angle supposed to be? Does it help predict anything? Are there any experts or traders here who can comment on whether it's used in finance or the exchanges?

I guess one test would be to model it and see if it predicts price movement, with some latency.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't call it a statistic, or a price movement predictor.
It is more a hold-the-finger-in-the-wind gauge of where some think price should be.
While the theory is based on a loose historical empirical observation, quantitatively it exists as a mere single-line chart that some cling to as hope to return to the ratio of roman times - around 9:1.
Whilst we all have the right to dream, this historical ratio fails to take into account factors that have come into existence since Julius's assassination - like industrial activity and uses for metal, cultural shifts, mining technologies and associated costs, and huge developments in our world economies such as international trading, energy markets and governments and central banking.
Ironically, those with the imagination wild enough to see the return of this historical ratio a real possibility usually lack the ability to grasp simple contract theory from which current prices are derived, and this lack of simple comprehension often leads them to turn to their wild imagination to look for a scapegoat - namely an alternate and even more impetuous theory of price manipulation. ​
 
Alloy said:
I don't think the GSR is a valid or useful statistic for valuing either metal. What is the angle supposed to be? Does it help predict anything? Are there any experts or traders here who can comment on whether it's used in finance or the exchanges?

I guess one test would be to model it and see if it predicts price movement, with some latency.
Click to expand...

I don't use the GSR to predict price movements, but it does tell you if something is cheap or expensive over a long run.

I own gold for wealth preservation but silver is a bet. I'm betting that property construction will slow down, and this will cause base metal production to slow. As we know, the majority of base metals is used in infrastructure and buildings. Meanwhile, the demand for phones/computers and solar panels will not fall as much or may even rise so the demand for silver will rise while supply plunges.

A lot is talked about the dollar bubble, but no one talks about the huge property bubble which in my opinion is the biggest bubble. There's a good reason why few talk about the property bubble - because most people are in it or their livelihoods are tied to it.
 
Last edited:
Wow, GSR of 103. Better than I expect, but I still expect a final upswing, but who knows?
 
looks like metals prices are heading higher, and GSR will be heading down
 
Hey the GSR is turning around really quickly, don't buy phy, just buy ETPMAG, why pay a 50% premium? I also have Perth Mint account and the spread is at record $1.50 and on top of 1% fee, F that.
 
this moon ?
looks like turning away from the moon

giphy.gif
 
silverhair said:
How important is the paper GSR anyway?

Paper prices vs physical are very different ratio wise...
Click to expand...


If we use The Perth Mint retail prices lets have a look.
2020 Australian Kangaroo 1oz Gold Bullion Coin = $2860.73AUD
2020 Australian Kangaroo 1oz Silver Bullion Coin = $31.63AUD
Retail GSR for single coins = about 90.4
90.4 troy ounces of silver will buy 1 troy ounce of gold in Australia.

Lets look at some other dealers.
APMEX
2020 Australian Kangaroo 1oz Gold Bullion Coin = $1882.59USD
2020 Australian Kangaroo 1oz Silver Bullion Coin = $25.37USD
Retail GSR for single coins = about 74.2
74.20 troy ounces of silver will buy 1 troy ounce of gold in America

These figures do not adequately reflect the GSR so don't go ear bashing me please. :D
 
Holdfast said:
If we use The Perth Mint retail prices lets have a look.
2020 Australian Kangaroo 1oz Gold Bullion Coin = $2860.73AUD
2020 Australian Kangaroo 1oz Silver Bullion Coin = $31.63AUD
Retail GSR for single coins = about 90.4
90.4 troy ounces of silver will buy 1 troy ounce of gold in Australia.

Lets look at some other dealers.
APMEX
2020 Australian Kangaroo 1oz Gold Bullion Coin = $1882.59USD
2020 Australian Kangaroo 1oz Silver Bullion Coin = $25.37USD
Retail GSR for single coins = about 74.2
74.20 troy ounces of silver will buy 1 troy ounce of gold in America

These figures do not adequately reflect the GSR so don't go ear bashing me please. :D
Click to expand...

The difference between American and local GSR for physical in your calculation is quite a shock to me
 
Although I think GSR is on the high end, I won't be buying silver at the current price as a deflationary hit will lower both gold and silver prices regardless of what happens to GSR.
 
leo25 said:
Why do you say dunny rolls are a supply chain issue? Aren’t all our toilet paper made in Australia?
Click to expand...

A supply chain is still a supply chain, it has raw material supply, process labour, warehousing, and distribution. When you have the local economy shutting down due to all this panic, supply chains are stressed even if they are local. Add then on top of that you have the supply and demand production schedule. So when you have the ridiculous sudden demand, the system wasn't design to cope, the "supply chain" breaks down.

ETHy9v8XYAAOttc
 
Alloy said:
I don't think the GSR is a valid or useful statistic for valuing either metal. What is the angle supposed to be? Does it help predict anything? Are there any experts or traders here who can comment on whether it's used in finance or the exchanges?
Click to expand...

That's the thing, the GSR is not something that people buy or trade, it's a ratio by-product of markets that work by their own forces.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top