Gold's path 1200>1170>1130>1085

Oldsoul said:
Bullion Baron said:
$1200>$1199>$3000
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1200 ->1150 (March interim seasonal low) -> 1220 -1230 ->1100 (June seasonal low, brief as a lot of drawing lines on charts people have convinced themselves this is a magic number) - 1200 (Sept/July Aug), October (1275 start of seasonal bull for gold), Nov (1300), Dec/Jan(1350-1375 seasonal high)



And price prediction is just magic eight balling via gonad rubbing. E.g. one little war in the right place changes everything.


Full disclosure

I just bought some silver and gold for less than spot again. If you are sitting waiting for a magic spot price on gold before you buy - you are doing it wrong.
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I still like these levels..........
 
I suppose 1200 and 1150 weren't the technical kiss of death levels everyone thought they were.
If we see $1200 again i think we might even start to see a little life go back into the old girl.

I've been watching some CNBC lately and it sounds like the mood is really changing on equities and the economic situation generally. Not that you would take much advice from them but it gives you an idea where that sort of investor's head is at and there's been a pretty obvious shift in tone.

I think we might see a lot of range bound trading between $1160 and $1190 for a while but i think $1130 is safely off the table for a little while.
 
Many were expecting it to dip below 1,100 $ and now I'm speechless at this rally.

There are some chances for it to dip again in April-May.
 
Fair bit of volatility at the moment. There's swings in currencies, bonds and commodities. I think markets are getting a general sense that any rate hike won't happen until after June if there is one so it's putting pressure on the USD but not enough to see a dramatic rise in gold. If we get past the September FOMC and there is still no rate hike and Fed are still just talking up the idea of hiking then markets may call the Feds bluff.
 
Caput Lupinum said:
Fair bit of volatility at the moment. There's swings in currencies, bonds and commodities. I think markets are getting a general sense that any rate hike won't happen until after June if there is one so it's putting pressure on the USD but not enough to see a dramatic rise in gold. If we get past the September FOMC and there is still no rate hike and Fed are still just talking up the idea of hiking then markets may call the Feds bluff.
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.I still think seasonality is the no.1 stable recurrent metric in short and medium gold price movement. Gold is not unique in this as a commodity wheat is naturally even more seasonal. I was not surprised to see gold rally coming to the end of March. I expect it to wobble up to 1230-50 before plummeting in June 1100 (a little sky is falling when it looses a 100 bucks) and will recover to 1200+ and stay flat for June July September from there to 1300+ by year end..

That was my finest gonad rubbing.
 
.
Caput Lupinum said:
Fair bit of volatility at the moment. There's swings in currencies, bonds and commodities. I think markets are getting a general sense that any rate hike won't happen until after June if there is one so it's putting pressure on the USD but not enough to see a dramatic rise in gold. If we get past the September FOMC and there is still no rate hike and Fed are still just talking up the idea of hiking then markets may call the Feds bluff.
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.I still think seasonality is the no.1 stable recurrent metric in short and medium gold price movement. Gold is not unique in this as a commodity wheat is naturally even more seasonal. I was not surprised to see gold rally coming to the end of March. I expect it to wobble up to 1230-50 before plummeting in June 1100 (a little sky is falling when it looses a 100 bucks) and will recover to 1200+ and stay flat for June July September from there to 1300+ by year end..

That was my finest gonad rubbing.
 
Oldsoul said:
.
Caput Lupinum said:
Fair bit of volatility at the moment. There's swings in currencies, bonds and commodities. I think markets are getting a general sense that any rate hike won't happen until after June if there is one so it's putting pressure on the USD but not enough to see a dramatic rise in gold. If we get past the September FOMC and there is still no rate hike and Fed are still just talking up the idea of hiking then markets may call the Feds bluff.
Click to expand...

.I still think seasonality is the no.1 stable recurrent metric in short and medium gold price movement. Gold is not unique in this as a commodity wheat is naturally even more seasonal. I was not surprised to see gold rally coming to the end of March. I expect it to wobble up to 1230-50 before plummeting in June 1100 (a little sky is falling when it looses a 100 bucks) and will recover to 1200+ and stay flat for June July September from there to 1300+ by year end..

That was my finest gonad rubbing.
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I do not think this will last through June though.
By the second week of April ,say the 13th bears will be out in force and anyone buying at this moment will be a little grumpy.
Of course long term it is really nothing to worry about, but for all the people i see talking about "long term" not many of them still have smiles when prices drop.
A decade from now though ??????
I really do not know the price, but i would be very surprised if $1800 Au and $25 Ag (USD of course) was not the norm and people still whinging about the lack of movement.
The older i get, the more i learn, yet the more confusing it seems at times.
 
My prediction was screwed up by the FOMC meeting :(

By last Tuesday, large speculators made a wrong bet on FOMC meeting result by purchasing ~20,000 gold short contracts. Commercials took the opposite position of adding 25,000 gold long contracts.

Apparently, Commercials won the bet. And then there has been a short-squeezing going on. Gold might go back 1200+ but won't last long before another down attempt for 1,100 test.

:P
 
Watch the movement of US dollar; it will test MA50 support soon.

After that, USD will bounce to test previous high; and I am afraid gold will plummet again.

;)
 
leon1998 said:
My prediction was screwed up by the FOMC meeting :(

By last Tuesday, large speculators made a wrong bet on FOMC meeting result by purchasing ~20,000 gold short contracts. Commercials took the opposite position of adding 25,000 gold long contracts.

Apparently, Commercials won the bet. And then there has been a short-squeezing going on. Gold might go back 1200+ but won't last long before another down attempt for 1,100 test.

:P
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If it hits 1100 in June it will be 1300+ by next January.
 
If US Dollar index completes its wave 5 by June, yes you will be right on 1300 figure. :P

Oldsoul said:
leon1998 said:
My prediction was screwed up by the FOMC meeting :(

By last Tuesday, large speculators made a wrong bet on FOMC meeting result by purchasing ~20,000 gold short contracts. Commercials took the opposite position of adding 25,000 gold long contracts.

Apparently, Commercials won the bet. And then there has been a short-squeezing going on. Gold might go back 1200+ but won't last long before another down attempt for 1,100 test.

:P
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If it hits 1100 in June it will be 1300+ by next January.
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leon1998 said:
My prediction was screwed up by the FOMC meeting :(

By last Tuesday, large speculators made a wrong bet on FOMC meeting result by purchasing ~20,000 gold short contracts. Commercials took the opposite position of adding 25,000 gold long contracts.

Apparently, Commercials won the bet. And then there has been a short-squeezing going on. Gold might go back 1200+ but won't last long before another down attempt for 1,100 test.

:P
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There is no timescale - what are your levels month by month until January?
 
So far, TreasureHunter has been right. He mentioned the 1,150 support; and he predicted another dip between April and May.

Let's see what will happen. I am confident TreasureHunter will be right again :P
 
In order for US dollar to reverse its trend, a negative divergence is likely to occur; which means price higher-high and momentum lower-high.

The time frame of US dollar peaking happens to fall in what TreasureHunter mentioned, sometime btw April and May.

;)
 
I don't think anyone would have predicted $1190 broaching $1200 a week or two ago. Usually moves like this have the forum jumping, maybe people are getting tired of the emotional Rollercoaster that is spot watching?
 
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