Gold could sink below $US1000: Goldman
September 13, 2013 - 4:09PM
Gold is poised to extend declines as the US Federal Reserve withdraws stimulus and economic data improve, according to Goldman Sachs, which says that there's a risk that bullion may drop below $US1000 an ounce.
Spot gold was trading at $US1311 an ounce this afternoon, extending yesterday's 3.2 per cent slump.
While debt-ceiling discussions in the US and the Syrian crisis may support bullion in the near term, gold will resume its decline into next year, Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television today.
The bank's target for 2014 was $US1050, and the commodity may overshoot to the downside, Mr Currie said in Singapore.
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Spot gold hasn't traded below $US1000 since October 2009.
Bullion has dropped 22 per cent this year as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value, the US economy improved and stocks and the greenback rallied.
The Fed is next week expected to pare its $US85 billion a month bond-buying program by $US10 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Earlier this year, Mr Currie issued a sell recommendation on bullion on April 10, before gold plunged 13 per cent in a two-session slump that ended April 15.
''While we agree with the mid-cycle price somewhere around $US1200, we believe that at least near term it can overshoot to the downside, which is why we have $US1050'' as a target, Mr Currie said. ''It clearly could trade below $US1000.''
Credit Suisse raised the possibility of gold trading below $US1000 in May as Ric Deverell, head of commodities research at the bank, said then that bullion was going to get crushed as inflation risks remained muted. That forecast was for bullion in five years' time.
''The real key in gold is to see the evidence of the improving economic data in the US,'' said Mr Currie.
Weakening emerging-market currencies, especially the South African rand, will also help to reduce the cost of production in dollars, he said.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/gold-could-sink-below-us1000-goldman-20130913-2tpnc.html
Until physical becomes unavailable....
