Gold to drop to $1000 or Maybe $900

Looks like I was ten days out then.

Friday & Monday are crucial to see support, bearing in mind that pm's last runs in recovering ground post- the April smackdown were supported by all time highs on the Dow - what happened last night was that the Dow again hit new highs - and gold reversed on the expected upward trajectory (based on all kinds of stuff but primarily inflationary pressure & QE).

I suggested that the weekend of 4-7 May would see another major smackdown like April - I'm thinking it's 17-20 May instead now. Again, bond mkts are in crisis and along with the false rumours punted by The Fed that they're thinking to rein-in their QE program (well, officially at least) that may have added to the downward pressure on gold & silver...

One aspect about the last 12 hrs though is that there was absolutely no resistance thru US$1400/oz - none whatsoever - sailed right thru it...

All I know is China & India can't be wrong - especially when it comes to buying the shiny stuff - so another buying opp for me.

Be sharp all. ;)
 
VRS said:
along with the false rumours punted by The Fed that they're thinking to rein-in their QE program (well, officially at least) that may have added to the downward pressure on gold & silver...
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Wouldn't that have actually bolstered sentiment toward gold / silver buying thereby driving value of PM's somewhat upward? I thought I understood that much about economics or do I have it wrong....again? :-)
 
mmissinglink said:
VRS said:
along with the false rumours punted by The Fed that they're thinking to rein-in their QE program (well, officially at least) that may have added to the downward pressure on gold & silver...
Click to expand...

Wouldn't that have actually bolstered sentiment toward gold / silver buying thereby driving value of PM's somewhat upward? I thought I understood that much about economics or do I have it wrong....again? :-)
Click to expand...


Less money and deflation = lower prices on everything including gold and silver
 
volrathy said:
mmissinglink said:
VRS said:
along with the false rumours punted by The Fed that they're thinking to rein-in their QE program (well, officially at least) that may have added to the downward pressure on gold & silver...
Click to expand...

Wouldn't that have actually bolstered sentiment toward gold / silver buying thereby driving value of PM's somewhat upward? I thought I understood that much about economics or do I have it wrong....again? :-)
Click to expand...


Less money and deflation = lower prices on everything including gold and silver
Click to expand...

all academic - the Fed cuts QE and the US and global economy slides into the toilet. Bernanke can do nothing else except print. He can talk big and the last times (2x) he threatened cutting QE the economy tanked. Watch his actions not his words. We will talk out both sides of his mouth. Remember his actions are to support the banks not you !!
 
mmissinglink said:
Wouldn't that have actually bolstered sentiment toward gold / silver buying thereby driving value of PM's somewhat upward? I thought I understood that much about economics or do I have it wrong....again? :-)
Click to expand...

Unfortunately given the warped perceptions of modern economics regarding hard assets & commodities, equity & bond markets promoted by successive generations of dodgy creative accounting practices ie central banks (the usual contenders, but US Fed, BoE & ECB in particular) as 'normal' neither gold, silver nor other investments once viewed as 'safe' from inflationary pressures perform as they might in a free system.

They're directed, sometimes responsibly like actors on a stage - but more often when cynicism & corruption's in charge, herded like cattle. Add to that the agenda to prop up the US$, which China's slowly hacking away at too now (good to see imho)...

A country's currency (which isn't backed by anything tangible) has its monetary base (MB) expanded. One would expect gold, silver and share markets to rise, yes?

Not today.

Since 2007-8 attempts to control debt have superceded (and eclipsed) all other priorities. The truth of course is there's no other solution for those in charge but to keep printing to match their rising debt. Once the realisation that debt is a much bigger issue than inflation that's the point where markets, bonds & commodities go into panic mode and they crash.

No prizes for guessing who provided the global environment in which deregulation, irresponsible lending, blurred lines, corrupt banksters, massive currency extension, exponential derivatives and the rest of the game we now slide around in. The people we and our parents voted into power...

When I was a kid there were always 2 sayings that I heard every single week...

"Neither a borrower or lender be" - How ironic considering Meyer Rothschild gave birth to the current monster back in the 18C...

&

"Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen pounds nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."

I always said I had a Dickensian upbringing - but whilst my grandparents were poor as church mice - they never borrowed what they couldn't afford - because to do that would ultimately mean destitution for the whole family...

Logic like that went out the window around about 1979 I reckon - with Thatcher and her ideology of selfishness & exclusivity (as opposed to inclusivity)... which spread like mold - from her in UK to Wall Street in the US and from there to the USSR via Gorbachev and 'glasnost'...
 
How's the status of that $1000 and maybe $900?
I assume the new prediction is now that it's going to rise to $1700 and maybe $2000?
 
It has been an impressive move up that is for sure but the U.S. dollar has not resumed its significant upward move. As soon as the bad news...ie the reality of the European finances ....comes back into view, the U.S. dollar will rapidly rise and then we will see if gold can stand on its own or not. If it follows its current path, any rise in the dollar will be very negative for gold. A 20% rise or fall does not make a change in trend.
 
tolly_67 said:
It has been an impressive move up that is for sure but the U.S. dollar has not resumed its significant upward move. As soon as the bad news...ie the reality of the European finances ....comes back into view, the U.S. dollar will rapidly rise and then we will see if gold can stand on its own or not. If it follows its current path, any rise in the dollar will be very negative for gold. A 20% rise or fall does not make a change in trend.
Click to expand...

It is interesting that many people believe Europe to be worse off than the US. I like Peter Schiff believe the US is far worse off than Europe and within the US we have states equivalent to Greece etc. I cannot see the market rushing into the US $ as it did in 2008. Much water has passed under the bridge since then. The next crisis will not be a European one but could be an Indian one, a middle eastern one etc.
I think whatever happens the fiat currencies will sink together.
 
tolly_67 said:
It has been an impressive move up that is for sure but the U.S. dollar has not resumed its significant upward move. As soon as the bad news...ie the reality of the European finances ....comes back into view, the U.S. dollar will rapidly rise and then we will see if gold can stand on its own or not. If it follows its current path, any rise in the dollar will be very negative for gold. A 20% rise or fall does not make a change in trend.
Click to expand...
Gold never stands on its own since the central banks control its price as to inflict speculators losses.

Over the last 5 years, the dollar fluctuated between 72 and 89. It sits now at 81.5, close to the middle of that 72-89 fluctuation range.
So where do you see your trend / current path?
It just sits on its average, measured over 5 years, nearly no change at all.
Of course there is a chance that the dollar revisits 89. But there is a same chance that it reaches 72.

Start 2010 Q2, the dollar visited that 89 peak. The gold price visited then $1200, the same bottom we saw mid juni this year when the dollar visited 85.
How does that fit in the theory $1000 and maybe $900 gold with a rapidly rising dollar?
Maybe if you think the central planners away from the picture, but they are there, so we have to cope with them. Since 2011, they decided to 'support' the gold price, as to inflict speculators less ounces.
Just look at the figures:
1997 -326 tonnes $331 > +3.47 billion dollar
1998 -363 tonnes $294 > +3.43 billion dollar
1999 -477 tonnes $279 > +4.28 billion dollar
2000 -479 tonnes $279 > +4.3 billion dollar
2001 -520 tonnes $271 > +4.53 billion dollar
2002 -547 tonnes $310 > +5.45 billion dollar
2003 -620 tonnes $363 > +7.24 billion dollar
2004 -479 tonnes $410 > +6.31 billion dollar
2005 -663 tonnes $445 > +9.49 billion dollar
2006 -370 tonnes $603 > +7.17 billion dollar
2007 -484 tonnes $695 > +10.81 billion dollar
2008 -236 tonnes $872 > +6.62 billion dollar
2009 -30 tonnes $972 > +0.94 billion dollar
2010 -77 tonnes $1224 > +3.03 billion dollar
2011 +455 tonnes $1572 > -23 billion dollar
2012 +534.6 tonnes $1669 > -28.69 billion dollar
2013 +400 tonnes (recent forecast $1470 > -18.9 billion dollar

So if they hadn't bought in 2013, we might have seen that $1000 or maybe $900. But they decided to not give it, and those that waited for those prices, just missed at least this time the boat. Let alone those that sold at $1200 in may 2013, thinking to buy back in at that $1000 and maybe $900 - these see now a $1400 sale price, and now could have received $200 more for every single ounce, and would still be able to buy back in 30% more ounces at $900, IF the central planners granted this price.

As a note: I'm not a gold buyer due to central planners control of its price, and I'm not of the sell high/buy back in low kind, but for those that do want gold or do these sell high/buy back in lows, this is all something to take into account.
 
The Euro and U.S. dollar cannot be compared. European countries do not have individual control over their currency whilst the U.S. does and as for depth, the market for U.S. dollar investment is far,far greater than any other currency. Everything is bought and sold in U.S. dollar. The weaker Euro countries are utterly broke and have no control over their own destiny. The U.S. is also in poor shape but not as bad. They will be the last to fall.
Capital will flee to the U.S. dollar like water flows from high to low ground. A 5 year average for the U.S. dollar index is but a number. This is an event that will confuse most analysts that do not understand global capital flows.
 
In gross terms

European Debt is US$15.3 T which is US$30,645 per capita
US Debt is US$17.1 T which is US$ 54,286 per capita
Japan Debt is US$19,5 T which is $1,5M per capita

It is obvious who is the worst the other two US looks twice as bad
Rush to the US$ - not so fast.....
Obviously this is official debt not unfunded off balance sheet liabilities where you can multiply the US figure by 10-15 X

No wonder we all want to hold their debt (aka currency)
 
The EU debt varies a lot from country to country. If you compare Greece with some of the better standing country you will have huge differences.

Our debt increased a lot. In % is still not so big, compared even with much better standing country, but is/was increasing a lot. However our country economy is very small, compared with whole EU.

Until US dollar will be "world currency" US will have still very strong position. If BRICS come out with new currency, well that will maybe be another story.

It's not impossible that EU will break into 2 "Unions", one with better developed countries and another with less. The idea about Mediterranean union was talked about many years ago.

As I've said many times. German elections will bring answers to many questions.

Comerzbank analyst told my father's friend he (they/bank) are expecting that US will appreciate 10% after German elections (compared to ).
 
Ronnie 666 said:
In gross terms

European Debt is US$15.3 T which is US$30,645 per capita
US Debt is US$17.1 T which is US$ 54,286 per capita
Japan Debt is US$19,5 T which is $1,5M per capita
Click to expand...
Ummm.... I have absolutely no idea where you came up with those figures for Japan... care to elaborate?
Without going into any details, the U.S population is about 2.5x Japan's. They have similar debt levels, so how is Japan's debt 30x more per capita?

Edit: I think the problem is that you're interchanging USD and Yen. 100 Yen is roughly 1 USD. Also, there debt is about $11.25T mpt $19.5T.
 
Japan's debt is 16 digits (in yen):
http://www.kh-web.org/fin/

per person 9,826,000 yen (about US$100,000)

Japan's gold reserves: 24,600,000 oz
per person 1/5 oz

So gold is leveraged at a 1/365 ratio...not sure what else we have.
Maybe China will give us some gold for those rocks in the pacific.
 
Ronnie 666 said:
In gross terms

European Debt is US$15.3 T which is US$30,645 per capita
US Debt is US$17.1 T which is US$ 54,286 per capita
Japan Debt is US$19,5 T which is $1,5M per capita

It is obvious who is the worst the other two US looks twice as bad
Rush to the US$ - not so fast.....
Obviously this is official debt not unfunded off balance sheet liabilities where you can multiply the US figure by 10-15 X

No wonder we all want to hold their debt (aka currency)
Click to expand...

Sorry Japan's debt is US$ 11.25T or $88,000 per person
Miscalculated to $ too many 00000
Does it matter ? I think not still the worst position
http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/japan
 
The difference between Japan and the rest of the world is that 95% of Japanese debt is owned by the Japanese. It is owned by banks, pension funds, retirees etc. This obviously gives them a lot more flexibility and is why they are still functioning with such high debt levels.
Look at who Greece, Portugal and the US owe money to. I bet you'll find more than 5% is owned by foreign interests.
 
col0016 said:
The difference between Japan and the rest of the world is that 95% of Japanese debt is owned by the Japanese. It is owned by banks, pension funds, retirees etc. This obviously gives them a lot more flexibility and is why they are still functioning with such high debt levels.
Look at who Greece, Portugal and the US owe money to. I bet you'll find more than 5% is owned by foreign interests.
Click to expand...

Debt is debt is debt and all these countries will default. It will be either cant pay or inflation of the currency to 0.
That is the only solution whoever owns the debt.
 
col0016 said:
The difference between Japan and the rest of the world is that 95% of Japanese debt is owned by the Japanese. It is owned by banks, pension funds, retirees etc. This obviously gives them a lot more flexibility and is why they are still functioning with such high debt levels.
Look at who Greece, Portugal and the US owe money to. I bet you'll find more than 5% is owned by foreign interests.
Click to expand...

Debt is debt is debt and all these countries will default. It will be either cant pay or inflation of the currency to 0.
That is the only solution whoever owns the debt.
 
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