Gold price - back up the truck?

[GreatSouthernTime]

There is little to no inflation according to "the official numbers" in the US.
Actually we are close to full employment from what they report haha. What a joke.

They cant stop the Inflation at this point, it only can keep going until the point of impact.
If they stop the printing it would all come down instantly.

No inflation? Haha... I find it just as funny when people say australia has no inflation. Is nobody looking at their health costs, insurance, registration or even coffee?

I think this is really interesting because of the printing stops And interest rates rise the govt. and major corporates default on their debt. If they keep it at this rate at some point the average consumer will have to notice. Luckily for Fed and politicians the average person doesn’t understand inflation and it can be pinned on some poor sucker.

 

[GreatSouthernTime]

I don't know how it will develop in the future but for some form of UBI to work, rent must be controlled, otherwise it will be like trying to fill up a bucket with a leak.

This is the sticking point I imagine. If rent controls are imposed mortgages default and housing prices fall, pension funds and banks default on payments and it all crumbles.

So I guess then what is the least riskiest savings instrument? Hence my question about backing up the truck. Does price even matter anymore or is it purely a safe place to keep savings?

 

[JohnnyBravo300]

So much for saving cash. I ordered 3 nice Morgan dollars from a guy on another forum, just couldnt pass them up.
It was less than $100 so nothing crazy. Its an addiction and I needed a little bump.

 

[JohnnyBravo300]

This is the sticking point I imagine. If rent controls are imposed mortgages default and housing prices fall, pension funds and banks default on payments and it all crumbles.

So I guess then what is the least riskiest savings instrument? Hence my question about backing up the truck. Does price even matter anymore or is it purely a safe place to keep savings?

Yeah it's just easy savings for me, should keep purchasing power or increase so I feel safe with gold and silver for the long haul.
Cash in hand or in the bank gets spent to fast so I convert it and put it away, mostly in silver.
I dont dip into it, or havent yet at least and it's not savings I would want to gamble with.

 

[TreasureHunter]

Is anyone backing up the truck as the gold price starts to break down?

You might want to check this out:
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-03-...ling-to-1-600-before-it-rallies-to-3-000.html

"We have downgraded our near-term outlook from a consolidation to a correction in which we expect gold to trade above $1,600" - VanEck Gold Strategy (whoever they are... )

 

[GreatSouthernTime]

You might want to check this out:
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-03-...ling-to-1-600-before-it-rallies-to-3-000.html

"We have downgraded our near-term outlook from a consolidation to a correction in which we expect gold to trade above $1,600" - VanEck Gold Strategy (whoever they are... )

very unsubstantiated article Although none of that would surprise me.

 

[TreasureHunter]

I think it could even go as low as the 1300's.
Should the vaccinations be successful this year and if several major economies produce GDP growth and people start mass-traveling and spending like mad.

Under this shadow, the Biden-Fed-ECB triangle will be able to pull more stunts (like quantitative easing, playing with interest rates) and for a while, it will go almost un-noticed.

 

[66rounds]

I think it could even go as low as the 1300's.
Should the vaccinations be successful this year and if several major economies produce GDP growth and people start mass-traveling and spending like mad.

Under this shadow, the Biden-Fed-ECB triangle will be able to pull more stunts (like quantitative easing, playing with interest rates) and for a while, it will go almost un-noticed.

No chance, but would amazing if physical was available around that price.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

No inflation? Haha... I find it just as funny when people say australia has no inflation. Is nobody looking at their health costs, insurance, registration or even coffee?

I don't think anyone is saying that there is no inflation. Under our current monetary system inflation is an essential component that drives economic growth, the key thing to look at is if there is rising inflation or not. And for the past 30 years we've had falling inflation even below the efforts of what our central banks are trying to achieve. There's a couple of reasons that could explain why this has occurred, but the important point is that if we make investment decisions based upon faulty inputs then we're going to end up making faulty investment decisions.

And I argue that one of those faulty inputs is that we will see rising inflation. If anyone is looking at purchasing precious metals because they are concerned about spiralling price inflation then I think they're buying for the wrong reasons. Sure we're going to see massive money inflation but that doesn't necessarily translate into price inflation for various important reasons.

We're not going to be catching the train to Zimbabwe Town.

 

[GreatSouthernTime]

I think it could even go as low as the 1300's.
Should the vaccinations be successful this year and if several major economies produce GDP growth and people start mass-traveling and spending like mad.

Under this shadow, the Biden-Fed-ECB triangle will be able to pull more stunts (like quantitative easing, playing with interest rates) and for a while, it will go almost un-noticed.

Although possible I don’t see it getting much below $1550 unless major market crash. But even if it does I would be worried I couldn’t get my hands on physical in the event.

 

[GreatSouthernTime]

I don't think anyone is saying that there is no inflation. Under our current monetary system inflation is an essential component that drives economic growth, the key thing to look at is if there is rising inflation or not. And for the past 30 years we've had falling inflation even below the efforts of what our central banks are trying to achieve. There's a couple of reasons that could explain why this has occurred, but the important point is that if we make investment decisions based upon faulty inputs then we're going to end up making faulty investment decisions.

And I argue that one of those faulty inputs is that we will see rising inflation. If anyone is looking at purchasing precious metals because they are concerned about spiralling price inflation then I think they're buying for the wrong reasons. Sure we're going to see massive money inflation but that doesn't necessarily translate into price inflation for various important reasons.

We're not going to be catching the train to Zimbabwe Town.

I think if you are using CPI as the measure then you are very correct, technology has been incredible deflationary.
On the other hand if you measure assets they are almost now 100% tied to money supply. Even though more volatile I would think gold is a pretty good indicator.
$270 in 2000 and $1750 today.

 

[GreatSouthernTime]

Yeah it's just easy savings for me, should keep purchasing power or increase so I feel safe with gold and silver for the long haul.
Cash in hand or in the bank gets spent to fast so I convert it and put it away, mostly in silver.
I dont dip into it, or havent yet at least and it's not savings I would want to gamble with.

Im with you mate. It’s not day to day living, just a fund I consider cash for retirement that hopefully keeps purchasing power over cash.

 

[TreasureHunter]

Although possible I don’t see it getting much below $1550 unless major market crash. But even if it does I would be worried I couldn’t get my hands on physical in the event.

During the previous crash, it was available at highly advantageous prices. But people didn't buy enough. It's a strange habit that it's more "appetizing" when it's going up. People like buying when it's expensive.

It's like learning for the hard exams on the last days, "at the last minute".

 

[PMCollector]

Exercising conviction at higher prices is easier than at lower prices for those who need to follow the herd, have a fomo, and ultimately don't really understand what they are buying, gold and silver is money, not currency.

 

[GreatSouthernTime]

During the previous crash, it was available at highly advantageous prices. But people didn't buy enough. It's a strange habit that it's more "appetizing" when it's going up. People like buying when it's expensive.

It's like learning for the hard exams on the last days, "at the last minute".

Last March I don’t think there was the mainstream attention like there was during the august hype and since. I’ve never seen so many people at the dealer since then, interesting a lot of younger people.

 

[alor]

maybe some people take profits from cryptos to metals, after cryptos.. the metals could be detached from fiat
the cycle continue, bad money will continue to drive out good money
use fiat to buy into crytos, then get metals in return... then sell metals for cryptos. can forget about fiat
not sure inflation could be by passed here

 

[TreasureHunter]

Exercising conviction at higher prices is easier than at lower prices for those who need to follow the herd, have a fomo, and ultimately don't really understand what they are buying, gold and silver is money, not currency.

Yes. Totally true.

Most people go with the heard. They also travel to where everyone travels.

Few people dig and have the brains to at least try to understand the markets.

The good thing about "herd mentality" is that it gives hope for holders to sell at a high price.
Yes. You will find a buyer when it hits 3,000 $.

Even more so: by the time it reaches that high, many dealers will have already run out of bullion so the masses will remain thirsty and mindlessly determined to hoard.

 

[TreasureHunter]

No chance, but would amazing if physical was available around that price.

Sure there is a change. Check back and see gold's price between 2013-2018. I believe it can sink down to the 1,500's and possibly even all the way down to the 1,300's. The latter is a more "solid"
technical bottom. Just check the charts. Although, the 1,300 sounds agonizing.

On whether it's available at dealers or not, depends on how long it stays down there. Between 2013-2018 it oscillated (roughly) in the 1,200-1300 $ range. It it went as deep down as approx. 1,060 $ spot (don't remember the exact bottom).
In the first year there was a lot of shortage and when it was available, the premiums were exaggeratedly high.

But it stayed down for many years and production kept pumping the new bullion, feeding the dealers' shops. Eventually, the premiums went down and people started buying more.
High premiums keep most people away. Generally high premiums occur immediately after major drops (obviously, the dealers want to minimize their losses), as for the "unavailability", it is mostly due to the fact that dealers pretend they don't have any only because they don't want to sell at a lower price (they would end up in loss).

 

[66rounds]

Sure there is a change. Check back and see gold's price between 2013-2018. I believe it can sink down to the 1,500's and possibly even all the way down to the 1,300's. The latter is a more "solid"
technical bottom. Just check the charts. Although, the 1,300 sounds agonizing.

On whether it's available at dealers or not, depends on how long it stays down there. Between 2013-2018 it oscillated (roughly) in the 1,200-1300 $ range. It it went as deep down as approx. 1,060 $ spot (don't remember the exact bottom).
In the first year there was a lot of shortage and when it was available, the premiums were exaggeratedly high.

But it stayed down for many years and production kept pumping the new bullion, feeding the dealers' shops. Eventually, the premiums went down and people started buying more.
High premiums keep most people away. Generally high premiums occur immediately after major drops (obviously, the dealers want to minimize their losses), as for the "unavailability", it is mostly due to the fact that dealers pretend they don't have any only because they don't want to sell at a lower price (they would end up in loss).

Big difference in macro economic environment between now and then

 

[TreasureHunter]

Big difference in macro economic environment between now and then

It's a lot worse today.