Gold crash might be intentional before it skyrockets?

TreasureHunter

TreasureHunter

Well-Known Member
Hi,

I thought about this scenario (I'm not saying it's necessary like this, but highly possible...):

Suppose...
*the euro, dollar and other currency crashes are unavoidable, hyperinflation is imminent and many central banks, states and major companies (like Goldman Sachs) know this very well - but for obvious reasons aren't admitting to the great public
*so they intentionally crash gold prices not in order to save the fiat currencies, but in order to buy up more gold (for themselves) in order to cope with the "big crash" that's still ahead of us...
*let's not forget that a major gold rush is undergoing: many countries buying and repatriating - at least in 2012, that's what they've been doing, I suppose China has been producing and stockpiling in 2013 as well (Asian physical demand is still high)
*gold crashes (primarily due to ETF liquidation - artificial), so they buy up: Goldman Sachs buys up, Federal Reserve buys gold for Germany (they owe them those 300 tons), I'm pretty sure the BRICs will seize the moment to buy more...
*they cause a "gap", so that they can buy up a lot more gold with the same money... :/
*if hyperinflation is inevitable, then it's logical that this is what banks, states would love to happen - a short gap that allows them to get prepared for the coming "big crash"
*small investors might lose their faith in gold... but major buyers will see a tremendous buying opportunity once gold becomes "cheap enough"... but we still don't know where exactly it will bottom...
*we have to watch whether the crash will be followed by a massive buy-up... if it will really skyrocket after this, then it's a planned short-selling for a later massive buy-up... investment companies could make a fortune after this

Of course, when I say massive buy-up, I don't mean just "bargain-hunting". Roubini expects a small spike to roughly 1,500 $ only caused by "profit-taking", one that normally doesn't last for long. But theoretically it could even go higher than the previous high. If it's a planned buy-up.

If gold gets very very cheap, I could even imagine the Fed buying to increase their holdings :)

So, could be a like a "pause", a "silence before the storm" period?

Economies aren't recovering, now even China is slowing down. Is see the risks growing, so I find this scenario quite plausible.

If we are really headed towards a 1930's style (some say even worse) scenario - then I think this could be a once in a lifetime "cheap gold gap" - silence before the storm. Let's not forget, Paul Krugman's 2012 writing "Apocalypse Fairly Soon" sounded grim, but he underlined some key facts that might lead us to social-economic devastation.

The "silence before the storm" is just a possibility, but if a massive crash is ahead... then this is how I imagine it would happen. Commodities would first stop for a while "to take a deep breath"...

What do you think? :rolleyes:
 
willrocks said:
Your unfounded optimism is refreshing.
Click to expand...

Why unfounded? :P

And why optimism? :P

It's neither of them. It's just a possible scenario. In fact, I'm more worried about what might happen later.
 
You have way too much scenario there......
There will be no hyperinflation because those that are owed the money just so happen to control the money and not in a million years will they allow thier investment to be watered down. What is far more likely after this deflationary period is the much dreaded stagflation. Interest rates will have to rise due to banks having to raise deposit rates to increase capital ratios to remain afloat as the weak banks fold and tougher regulations are implemented. As for the currencies, it is true that they will cop a flogging but the U.S. dollar will be the last to flow. Expect the U.S. dollar to rise for another year or two yet as capital flees the weakest areas...ie Euro, Pound, sovereign bonds etc...stocks will soon continue their upward trajectory as they too will benefit from the fleeing capital. That does not mean the occasional pull back won't occur.

The result of higher interest rates is very high inflation which will collapse the bond market forcing more capital into stockmarkets and.....wait for it.....anything tangible....gold, wheat, copper, rice, real estate...
This means we will have high unemployment, high interest rates, increased strike activity, governments wanting pay freezes, unions wanting price freezes....just like the 70's all over again.....and what happened to gold in the 70's.....from 35 bucks to 190 bucks ....back to 105 bucks....( notice the near 50% pull back...remind you of anything...hint, hint...like now...) and then off to over 800 bucks..

The truth is that Fed and the European central bank could not give a damn about gold and it is wrong to think that they control the price.
 
Watched a show on T.V the other night about 'The Great Depression".....Damn it was tuff back then...... I mean really tuff.

TH, It would not surprise me if you were correct but I just cannot see the U.S defaulting this year or the next.......They WILL raise the debt ceiling just like Japan did twenty years ago......Twenty years is a bloody long time to put the inevitable off..

I'm not buying ANY more metal until I see what the U.S do in September with the debt ceiling!
 
TheEnd said:
Watched a show on T.V the other night about 'The Great Depression".....Damn it was tuff back then...... I mean really tuff.

TH, It would not surprise me if you were correct but I just cannot see the U.S defaulting this year or the next.......They WILL raise the debt ceiling just like Japan did twenty years ago......Twenty years is a bloody long time to put the inevitable off..

I'm not buying ANY more metal until I see what the U.S do in September with the debt ceiling!
Click to expand...

It was terrible during the "Great Depression".
Right now we're in a deflationary recession... of course - depends which country you live in, but even the eurozone admits they want a weaker euro.

Why I said hyperinflation: QE, European and Japanese easing. It could lead to a runaway inflation. There are lots of experts predicting a possible hyperinflation. The deflation is supposed to happen before it.

It's partly the deflationary situation that's pushing prices down. But once interest rates start climbing and currency gets inflated, the price of gold and silver could rise.

Of course, currently it's very good to own US dollars. It has "petrol backing", it's the reserve currency of the World and while the euro is weakening, the US economy is also showing some better figures. So I'm quite positive on the dollar on the short and mid-term. Prolly it will continue to do well for a matter of years, even. But not so sure about the euro...

Suppose only Europe "sinks". It would be enough to influence the PM market.

Who knows what will happen...

It's indeed a question whether now we're only seeing the "normal" 30-40 % gold correction, a "bear trap" or is gold going to hit "rock bottom"?

Whatever happens - with this thread I wanted to underline that there will be some companies, probably even countries who will gain tremendously from this price fall by buying up cheap.
I believe gold is still too expensive. Probably better to stay away as it still descends...

I was surprised how some rushed to bullion dealers when it was in the 1,300-1,400 $ range. To me, even then it seemed like it was continuing to fall.
 
You have a lot of time on your hands..LOL, what about this.The NWO currency will be pinned to Gold or Silver thus making two classes of people the Rich and the poor.=(
Once the world currency has lost value it will need to be replaced by something that has value, get people off gold & silver revalue the PM's against the NWO currency game over for 99% of the world. Side note look at the demands put on greece from the banks, you think that would not happen here in Australia? What ever interest you have in PM's make sure you have an exit plan.
 
thomascrew said:
The gold is very precious metal and it is very valuable in India except other countries.
Click to expand...
:rolleyes:
Really ?
What drugs are you on
I feel another spammer warming up ;)
 
TreasureHunter said:
willrocks said:
Your unfounded optimism is refreshing.
Click to expand...

Why unfounded? :P

And why optimism? :P

It's neither of them. It's just a possible scenario. In fact, I'm more worried about what might happen later.
Click to expand...


Ive thought the same. Gold and silver have traditionally been a store of wealth. CBs are buying big. Currencies are falling. If a reset is commingm what carrys intrinsic value, little bits of printed paper with a promise or a finite commodity that cant be inflated or created out of nothing.

Anyone holding onto PMs if currency became worthless wont loose. Even if say China lost all the $ they are owed, Gold would raise to cover that as it will no longer be $/Oz but $ of debt/Oz. It will be everyone else who has not protected themselves by getting out of currencies to some extent that will pay off the losses.

Its interesting that FED says gold isnt money but they wont give back gold to Germany. Also very interesting that while everyobe is being told Gold is bad and worthless as an investment that CBs world wide are buying up big. Seeing as the FED has never lied and governments are always open and honest maybe everyone should listen to what they say and not folliw what they do.

Surly that must be the right thing to do because they said it is........ Right?

Everyone needs to sell PMs right now, get out with only a 40% realised loss. CBs will do the right thing by you and be the buyer for that hated gold because they want to help you right?

I would rather a 80% unrealised loss at this stage then a 40% realised loss, its already gone past the point to bail on physical PMs and take the loss unless you are in paper . PMs are a finite resources, they need it to come from somewhere and weak hands will fold. If it was such a bad investment, why are CBs buying? Why is there a shortage of physical PMs world wide? There should be a glut of physical on the market. It doesnt add up unless all is not as it seems.
 
who said it adds up? who says it is what it seams? I would like to visit that planet or inject their crushed up pills...who cares what its worth, I just buy it cause I like it, its a hobby, and like our houses, stocks, etc, we all know its bound to go up someday..as long as its in 25 years I hope.
 
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