Gold could fall further - Alessio Rastani's technical analysis

TreasureHunter

TreasureHunter

Well-Known Member
Although the video is from October, it clearly points out one thing: gold has lost momentum. It's going down.
It's been going down in November, December - it even went lower last week:



From what we can conclude is that it could stop somewhere around 1,440 $, but (my personal opinion) it could even go slightly below 1,400 $.

The reason for this current decrease is mainly correction which was due and the holiday season.

It usually shoots straight up after New Year, but what if that doesn't happen now?

If there are economic/political factors to propel it upwards, it will climb. The markets usually "ignite" after New Year, so it could happen.

What do you think?
 
Analysts have been calling for a correction to at least 1375 or 1350 USD for some months now, and I have been praying for it. But it has yet to come, so I've dipped back in at 1450+ because when the new year comes in I expect we will sail right past 1550 USD.
 
TreasureHunter said:
Although the video is from October, it clearly points out one thing: gold has lost momentum. It's going down.
It's been going down in November, December - it even went lower last week:



From what we can conclude is that it could stop somewhere around 1,440 $, but (my personal opinion) it could even go slightly below 1,400 $.

The reason for this current decrease is mainly correction which was due and the holiday season.

It usually shoots straight up after New Year, but what if that doesn't happen now?

If there are economic/political factors to propel it upwards, it will climb. The markets usually "ignite" after New Year, so it could happen.

What do you think?
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I think you might do yourself a favour and decide if you want to rely on Technical analysis or Fundamental analysis.
 
Davros10 said:
I think you might do yourself a favour and decide if you want to rely on Technical analysis or Fundamental analysis.
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I want both :)

Long term can't exist without a bit of short term for me. Macroeconomic & political factors aren't enough to understand, because one needs to take a good look at the charts as well.

I want everything!
 
66rounds said:
Analysts have been calling for a correction to at least 1375 or 1350 USD for some months now, and I have been praying for it. But it has yet to come, so I've dipped back in at 1450+ because when the new year comes in I expect we will sail right past 1550 USD.
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Hmm... That certainly is a possibility. Might even become a probability.

Yes, I agree we will surpass 1,500 $ next year. My guess is we'll get to 1,500 $ easily in January already, will hit higher in February.

There won't be another "good" buying opportunity until April (seasonally-speaking), but who knows what the future brings...
 
It could drop a little next spring but it's never good to count on that. Everything could be different by then.
I've been only stacking silver lately but if I wanted gold I'd buy it now.
They can only polish this turd for so long and even the msm is talking of the slowdown.
That's a good indicator in itself.
 
If anything you could sell some after the new year at a better price and then hold the fiat until april for when the price drops, if you are that brave!
There are plenty that will try it and things might be fine but I'm a long term holder so I just watch from the sidelines mostly. Sure is fun tho!
My son is a wheeler and dealer when it comes to this so he will gamble on it.
Theres nothing wrong with trying to make a few bucks on it or add to the stack!
 
It is an exciting thing to watch. I sometimes put myself the question: how much some people spend on beer, football... women ( :D ), so PM's aren't that much of a sacrifice, even if you miss the timing a bit.
 
I’d be careful with YouTube videos made by professional “analyst gurus” with plenty of subscribers, and just view them for the fun of it. People make YouTubes to make pennies from advertisement. They are for entertainment. If you notice they like to “discuss” current movements. For example, now the price of silver and gold is correcting, they will talk about the falling price and you get cold feet. The problem is it’s easy to talk about it after the correction is already 90% over. I mean what’s the point? It’s already too risky to take a short position and too late to sell.

However, talking about the latest trend is good for earning clicks and eyeballs. On the other hand, if you talk about being ultra bullish on silver in June 2019 you’ll have little views and invite many comments slamming you for pumping. The business of YouTube is the same as MSM, that is to talk about what people want to hear to earn the most eyeballs and ad revenue.

I have the hobby of checking what “gurus” talk about 1-2 years ago to look at their track record and past videos/articles. A lot of gurus were very bullish on gold early 2018 and bearish around August to October 2018. If you followed the gurus in H2 last year, you will have missed out on the bull run.
 
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I usually won’t post ZH due to propaganda but this is an interesting observation. I vaguely remembered gold rising and falling sharply in 2007-2008 which I got cold feet and missed the huge rally in 2009. A lot of people went into stocks in the middle of 2008 thinking the worst is over only to be slaughtered in 2009.

Will history repeat the same way? I don’t know but it’s worth waiting to see what will happen next.

I’ve to note that Gold and silver went up quite a lot from 2000 to 2008 so it wasn’t easy to HODL at that time. Today it is a no brainer especially for silver.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/l...dramatic-improvement-sentiment-was-early-2008
 
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66rounds said:
Analysts have been calling for a correction to at least 1375 or 1350 USD for some months now, and I have been praying for it. But it has yet to come, so I've dipped back in at 1450+ because when the new year comes in I expect we will sail right past 1550 USD.
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I still expect to see something like $1350 as a down spike. Close around $1375 as a low. But it will likely be pretty quick. Early next year should see another climb to $1550+ area. But if you are stacking be careful you don’t miss the drop. I am buying now because the last dips often happen fast and there is not much metal around to buy. Mtcw.
 
openeyes said:
I still expect to see something like $1350 as a down spike. Close around $1375 as a low. But it will likely be pretty quick. Early next year should see another climb to $1550+ area. But if you are stacking be careful you don’t miss the drop. I am buying now because the last dips often happen fast and there is not much metal around to buy. Mtcw.
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I am too impatient to hold out for the dip and have started buying again but intend to leave some cash on the side to buy unallocated if I manage to catch the dip. For sure won't find anything on the forums at spot during that time so it's the only real way to cost average down.
 
openeyes said:
I still expect to see something like $1350 as a down spike. Close around $1375 as a low. But it will likely be pretty quick. Early next year should see another climb to $1550+ area. But if you are stacking be careful you don’t miss the drop. I am buying now because the last dips often happen fast and there is not much metal around to buy. Mtcw.
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Yep, you're absolutely right. I've seen some of these "speedy Gonzales" dips a few times in the past.
It looks like it wants to sink a bit more - I think this could happen before Christmas or probably it will drag on until New Year?

When are you expecting the dip to be "in"?
 
TreasureHunter said:
Yep, you're absolutely right. I've seen some of these "speedy Gonzales" dips a few times in the past.
It looks like it wants to sink a bit more - I think this could happen before Christmas or probably it will drag on until New Year?

When are you expecting the dip to be "in"?
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Looking at the charts I would expect it to creep up to $1485-1495 by mid January then drop to $1350~$1375 around end of January. It may stay around those lows for a while or it might and I think more likely will shoot up.

The background to that has to be brexit continuing struggles (UK Govt looks likely to only marginally increase its margin) and the US China trade deal. There are many other possible events of course.

On the upward possibilities have to be a gold backed crypto from China. Israel war with Iran. Collapse of South Africa and its mining. These are rambling thoughts.

On the downward possibilities there are US China sea gets done. UK vote is conclusive and brexit is easily done. HK is calmer. Euro zone crawls alone without anything serious. General calm.

To me the weighted view is for upward movements but not that quick. Think 2001 to 2008 imho.
 
openeyes said:
Looking at the charts I would expect it to creep up to $1485-1495 by mid January then drop to $1350~$1375 around end of January. It may stay around those lows for a while or it might and I think more likely will shoot up.

The background to that has to be brexit continuing struggles (UK Govt looks likely to only marginally increase its margin) and the US China trade deal. There are many other possible events of course.

On the upward possibilities have to be a gold backed crypto from China. Israel war with Iran. Collapse of South Africa and its mining. These are rambling thoughts.

On the downward possibilities there are US China sea gets done. UK vote is conclusive and brexit is easily done. HK is calmer. Euro zone crawls alone without anything serious. General calm.

To me the weighted view is for upward movements but not that quick. Think 2001 to 2008 imho.
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I would have to agree that upside has more chance, 2019 was a bumpy ride but i think 2020 will be much more wild on the Earth roller coaster.
 
The general trend will be up but with some dips along the way, same as for the last 100 years.
Some of those so called experts make it way more difficult than it has to be. Half the time I wonder if they just like hearing themselves talk haha.
 
66rounds said:
Analysts have been calling for a correction to at least 1375 or 1350 USD for some months now, and I have been praying for it. But it has yet to come, so I've dipped back in at 1450+ because when the new year comes in I expect we will sail right past 1550 USD.
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Congratulations, you got this right!

It appears that buying gold is now more of a matter of guts or faith as the trend is up - weak pull backs and strong rallies.
 
sgbuyer said:
Congratulations, you got this right!

It appears that buying gold is now more of a matter of guts or faith as the trend is up - weak pull backs and strong rallies.
Click to expand...
I did not expect it this early, have to wait and see where it holds. Nothing matters anymore except what Trump tweets. It's almost better to buy with your eyes closed a gram or two a week and stop worrying about spot. Up down or sideways you will thank yourself for buying a couple of years from now.
 
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