Hello folks.
I've said this once over a decade ago: gold does nothing, it's people buying and selling it that do.
According to gold.org data, 2024 was the 3rd consecutive year that central banks (that exist to battle speculants that try to preserve the purchasing power they earnt) purchased over 1000 tonnes.
That's even more than the occasional record 600 tonnes they annually purchased a decade ago.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1222333/000095012309004971/y01161sv3asr.htm
OFFICIAL SECTOR SALES
Historically, central banks have retained gold as a strategic reserve asset. However, since 1989 the official sector has been a net seller of gold to the private sector, supplying an average of 407 tonnes per year from 1989 to 2007. This has resulted in net movements of gold from the official to the private sector. Owing to the prominence given by market commentators to this activity and the size of official sector gold holdings, this area has been one of the more visible sources of supply.
Central bank & other institutions
- positive figure means total net = selling
- negative figure means total net = buying
year / tonnes / average gold price that year / estimated cost per tonne based on average gold price
1997 326 $330.98
1998 363 $294.24
1999 477 $278.88
2000 479 $279.11
2001 520 $271.04
2002 547 $309.73
2003 620 $363.38
2004 479 $409.72
2005 663 $444.74
2006 365 $603.46
2007 484 $695.39
2008 235 $871.96
2009 34 $972.35
2010 -79.2 $1224.53
2011 -480.8 $1571.52
2012 -569.3 $1668.98
2013 -623.8 $1411.23
2014 -583.9 $1211.71
2015 -576.5 $1160.06
2016 -389.8 $1250.74
2017 -374.8 $1257.12
2018 -651.5
During the nineties they sold gold from their stock - at a "limit" high enough to keep the gold price low, as low as < $300 an ounce.
Price is now 10 times that, and now they buy >1000 tonnes annually.
While they don't need gold at all - in the early 70's the US regime digged the dollarfixed price, and before, they'd had banned people 40 years from possessing gold other than ancient coins / relics.
Since 2020 regimes started to sabotage the economy (first excuse their sponsored Wuhan lab-gained-of-function virus, further excuses russian and other viruses, sabotages now lasting 5 years, after a decade of price stability, causing increases, making these permanent by forcing increased minimum wages and a plethora of other limits.
The regimes will continue what they started in 2020, until they reached their goal of watering existing money, along with frontrunning speculants while suggesting doom to trick them into selling in the bottom range and cheer to trick them into buying at the top range.
5 years is not that much, typical central planned cycles last double that, it takes time to convince speculants and frontrunning requires rinse and repeats, so the warmongering will likely continue till 2030.
And by then of course, speculants will need again dollars instead of gold, to buy the stuff they intended, and the regimes will return from buying gold back to selling gold too, like in the nineties.
After inflicting less ounces for the dollars, inflicting less dollars for the ounces.
They don't have silver stocks anymore, why I chosed silver, for what it matters, because if regimes notice that the price ratio favors silver, they ofc support the gold price, to compensate this drive at speculants.
Because as said, that's why central banks exist: to compensate the effects of what speculants do, to fight them.
Gold drives on bad news.
Central banks cause that bad news.
Gold sinks on good news.
Central banks cause good news by stopping causing bad news.
That's why peace in the world "too soon" is highly undesired by regimes, and why Mister Trump, whose blahblah promised peace, was/is gets tagged as Dare Devil Danger Democracykiller and Doomsbringer.
Since what central banks = regimes do on the gold market depends on what speculants do on the gold market, this topics question is like questioning yourself.
Speculants decide where the price of gold goes too, central banks then mimic their actions.
So, ask yourself the question, are you willing to pay for ex $5000 for 1 ounce gold?
If not, be wary of thinking other people will.
The moment that all speculants ask eachother, indicates doubt, which is the harbinger of pessimism, which is the harbinger of hammering sell buttons.
Some manage to cut losses short, most don't.
Because regimes always move property from large majorities to small minorities.
A way to judge a price, is comparing it to house prices, because a house tends to be peoples biggest lifetime spending.
Before 2000, other prices were driven up, gold wasn't, because of regimes and existing 70's gold speculants selling gold as much as new speculants bought. After 2000, regimes started wars (based on false claims) against Irak and others, and, as has always been, produced new dollars to finance it.
That drove prices up (house price doubled), speculants saw their dollars watering (regimes forced down deposito rates), and started to convert dollars to gold. Regimes did the same, driving the gold price up twice as fast, inflicting speculants half the ounces they would have had without.
Then in 2008, the regimes central banks decided to swicht from "losening" to "tighten", but advertised it as losening (Quantitative Easing operations paid banks to NOT lend out money, by an interest rate on reserves (held at the central bank) that they set higher than the rate depositors received.
In the US, Fed paying banks on the as "excess reserve" tagged money, was technically forbidden by law, but no problem, they fixed that a year before they started the tightening and brought the crisis, in 2007, by inverting words in the definition of excess reserves.
House prices are now rising again, that is, speculants became willing to pay more, or, lacked the choice, in the expectation of further rises.
But it's not about the direction, it's about the ratio.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS
Average US house price was at the start of going to war $210K.
In 2024 it was $500K. That's +150%
Gold $300 to $3000 is +900%
But, one has to take into account the history before that history.
House 1980 to 2000 went * 3
Gold 1980 to 2000 went * 0.3 (that's worser than nowhere)
So gold was in 2000
undervalued to house almost 10 times.
For a speculant that in 2000 swapped his saved dollars for gold (the best moment in generations - since possessing gold was made illegal since early '30's (reason US regime didn't want speculants profit from their forced $20 > $34 refixing) until early '70's and what you don't have you cannot sell) to 25 years later swap gold back to dollars to buy a house, makes the deal of a lifetime.
Look at the topics voting results.
Not many votes, but still, none voted "overvalued / time to start selling and continuing to do so"
(Btw, the latter makes no sense, because if you think the price is a peak, of course you sell all in one go, in order to have the technical (trade resolution) max possible ounces sold within the highest price range)
None votes "overvalued", since in order to be at the winning site, you have to do the opposite of what most do, so this topics voting results are loud screaming SELL SELL SELL ASAP.
Afterwards, in some future, at what will turn out to have been the bottom, you'll read that the worst is yet to come, that you should wait to buy, that you should go slow, while it should have been BUY BUY BIY ASAP.
And why?
Because those that sell ounces high, need suckers to buy ounces high.
And afterwards, need suckers to sell ounces low.
It's often said that in stocks, gold and everything the long term matters, and that the latest gyrations do not count.
Yet, every day, a thousand experts measure the latest gyrations, to then deliver advice on what they so called think is next.
Somethings wrong here eh?
