Gold at ATH.....what do your tea leaves say?

The tea leaves have spoken, the price of gold (currently $3825/oz $AUD) is:

  • In bubble territory - a correction is imminent, but buying the dip is a good idea.

    Votes: 1 6.3%

  • Overvalued - its time to start selling and continue doing so. Bear market on the horizon.

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Plateauing - minimal movement expected from here on.

    Votes: 3 18.8%

  • Undervalued - This is a great buying opportunity.

    Votes: 5 31.3%

  • I dont drink tea.

    Votes: 7 43.8%
  • Total voters
    16
  • Poll closed .
IPDA said:
and a potentially unwinding DXY
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That won't happen until The Fed alters its outlook. At the moment the market is convinced that The Fed is going to travel a hawkish path and is pricing in accordingly. Jobs report reinforces this.

We'll just have to wait and see.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
That won't happen until The Fed alters its outlook. At the moment the market is convinced that The Fed is going to travel a hawkish path and is pricing in accordingly. Jobs report reinforces this.

We'll just have to wait and see.
Click to expand...

Markets aren't always correctly priced. Sometimes they're deep in premium (expensive) territory, and sometimes they're in discount (bargain) territory.

IMO we're still in deep premium territory for the DXY. Didn't find that weekly close I was looking for, so I'm back to waiting for that confirmation.

I think that yields will lower, that's at least what everything I look at is suggesting. Bond market is showing a lot of resilience even in the face of a higher DXY.

DXY potential reversal levels:

1st - 109.651
2nd - 110.092
3rd - 110.426
4th - 110.668
5th - 110.477

^ These are all institutional reference levels, if price is drawing somewhere, it will be to one of these. Due to levels 3rd & 5th being relatively close in proximity, this could be the likely draw on liquidity. If something changes, say bonds plummet below their December 2023 lows, then bias might change. But yeah, right now I wouldn't want to be short foreign currencies when their is a POTENTIAL reversal coming in the pipeline.
 
I'm looking at the USD and consequently the DXY from a macro perspective, hence the main impact from my perspective is The Fed rather than any opinions based on technicals. So it's no surprise if my outlook differs to yours.

Basically: "Everywhere is fucked except the US".
 
I'm going to ponder all the worlds problems today while I'm snowboarding the fresh powwwww.
Whoohooo!

Crested Butte Resort was bought by Vail and now they don't accept cash anymore...so fkn annoying.
 
See, this correction that so many (not on SS) have been concerned with has been nothing more than another longer term bull flag type pattern.
Things like this need time to play out and as mighty and badass and straight up pimpboss as GOLD is, it still needs time to do all the things that it has to do.

Be patient Kings and LET'ER EAT!

Gold $2690 here in Colorful Colorado.
 
Resized_1000004352_1736727831908.jpegResized_1000004388_1736728463216.jpeg

A little eye candy on my finger and interesting fact for anyone who doesn't know......

One of the easiest tests you can do standing in the creek with your back turned to the sun or go under a tree and see if the lil chunker still shines.

ONLY GOLD shines even in the dark.

That beautiful dull buttery luster makes my mouth water.

You could also try to crush it with your hammer.
Gold will crush flat but hold together in one piece. Everything else will explode into dust.

The hammer method sounds like some caveman shit but it works fast and simple if you don't mind having a flake instead of a picker hehe.
 
IPDA said:
Markets aren't always correctly priced. Sometimes they're deep in premium (expensive) territory, and sometimes they're in discount (bargain) territory.
Click to expand...

It wasn't the price of assets in the market I was actually referring to, but more the participants with skin in the game as the market.

IPDA said:
I think that yields will lower, that's at least what everything I look at is suggesting. Bond market is showing a lot of resilience even in the face of a higher DXY.
Click to expand...

The market has reacted to The Fed and currently expects that there will less rate cuts than previously. SOFR Rates now (white) compared to a month ago (blue). It also thinks that there will be a rate rise in 2026 according to the chart below.

Screenshot 2025-01-13 at 2.27.32 pm.png

Source:


I'm also thinking yields will eventually go lower, they have to before bonds get an arse-tearing, but it will be triggered by a policy change by the US government as opposed to any internal changes. For me, that's The Fed cutting more than twice and being more dovish in their forward guidance. I'm anticipating the SOFR rate to look a little more like the blue line say by July 2025.

Edit to add: and the government is probably going to have to step in and do something about USD liquidity globally, maybe swaps or something. This will push the DXY down.
 
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Dunno about 0, but I'd say they'd be pretty happy if it was lower than what it currently is.

Warren Mosler argues it should be 0.
 
The euro is what is giving me confidence the potential reversal high is in. There isn't too many bullish POI's left for the euro to exhaust, where it is right now makes sense for a longer-term reversal.
 
I heard it might affect g and s prices here in the US!
If it goes up 25% I'll start saving cash for the next crypto winter or go all in on Gamestop and Nvidia hehe.

I can change my savings strategy but I really like stacking.

Maybe the Bitcoin thing for sure. When is the next winter anyway, anyone know?
 
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