Gold and Silver may have turned the corner

[Pirocco]

At least, recent price action confirmed that gold and silver's breakout has been REAL. GLD has been adding physical gold massively; its holding passed 800 tons as of now.

Most recent weekly gold futures report showed that Market-makers started to close some short position at elevated price level. Apparently they're losing control and raising capital now.

Wow.

REAL?
Heh.
Watch this:
ETFs and similar products
1997 0 $330.98
1998 0 $294.24
1999 0 $278.88
2000 0 $279.11
2001 0 $271.04
2002 3 $309.73 $0.030b
2003 39 $363.38 $0.456b
2004 133 $409.72 $1.752b
2005 208 $444.74 $2.974b
2006 260 $603.46 $5.044b
2007 253 $695.39 $5.656b
2008 321 $871.96 $8.999b
2009 617 $972.35 $19.288b
2010 367.7 $1224.53 $11.822b
2011 154.0 $1571.52 $4.951b
2012 279.1 $1668.98 $8.973b <- 2634.8 tonnes stockpiled, total cost 69.94b
2013 -915.9 $1411.23 -$41.56b
2014 -185.1 $1294.64 -$7.704b
2015 -133.4 $1160.06 -$4.975b <- 1234.4 tonnes destockpiled, total received 54.24b

Half of their gold has been sold again, yet they received already 77% of their $ back.
There is little to break out and alot to break down.

Central banks sold 5592 tonnes gold over the period 1997-2009.
And purchased back 2873.9 tonnes over the period 2010-2015.
That's 51% purchased back.
Note the similarity with the ETF holdings drop.
The explanation appears quite obvious: a buyer needs a seller and vice versa. ETFs, (bullion) banks and governments, a nice cooperation.
Your view on the Comex futures market is the inverse of the reality. It's now the exact opposite: it's many years ago that they controlled the price as much as now. With "they" being all of them, not some trader class like you suggest.

 

[SilverDJ]

Julie, the dude in that video lost ALL his remaining credibility when he claimed the Saudis etc needed to get all the oil out and sold off before they "run out of customers" at the "end of the oil age"
The only way oil loses its value is if a new abundant energy source is developed (such as nuclear fusion), OR we are all dead.

Yes. Anyone who claims the demand for oil will dry up in the foreseeable future is delusional.

 

[Pirocco]

I traded penny stocks before I got into PM's back in the early 2000's. The key is to get in before the herd on any random stock. It really boils down to luck on these. I made several thousands $$$ on a handful of penny stocks I got very lucky on. Then I got cocky and started buying randomly and lost most of my gains. I got out just in time to catch the early bull moves in PMs, only later to lose some of that back over the past 4 years.

I didn't realize it earlier, but you have a very interesting case there early 2000 when you got into PM's.
It's just after the Washington Agreement on gold, the first central bank gold agreement, that so-called limited government gold sales (but in reality it wasn't really a limit since it it was as high as the common annual sales, and they sold in the subsequent years even more).
Nearly all mint sales show a decades (!) recordbottom figure for 2000. Your PM entrance then, must be a school example of what they name "going against the herd". Most not buying / selling instead, you did the opposite.
What exactly made you decide to buy PM's then? Or was it luck / circumstances?

 

[Jim4silver]

I traded penny stocks before I got into PM's back in the early 2000's. The key is to get in before the herd on any random stock. It really boils down to luck on these. I made several thousands $$$ on a handful of penny stocks I got very lucky on. Then I got cocky and started buying randomly and lost most of my gains. I got out just in time to catch the early bull moves in PMs, only later to lose some of that back over the past 4 years.

I didn't realize it earlier, but you have a very interesting case there early 2000 when you got into PM's.
It's just after the Washington Agreement on gold, the first central bank gold agreement, that so-called limited government gold sales (but in reality it wasn't really a limit since it it was as high as the common annual sales, and they sold in the subsequent years even more).
Nearly all mint sales show a decades (!) recordbottom figure for 2000. Your PM entrance then, must be a school example of what they name "going against the herd". Most not buying / selling instead, you did the opposite.
What exactly made you decide to buy PM's then? Or was it luck / circumstances?

I stopped trading the penny stocks some time around 2002 or 2003, it was after that I got into PMs. Somehow I had been reading about the dollar going to crash and PM's going to the moon type stuff. So I would say it was luck since it wasn't from me coming up with original theories or anything like that.

Once PM's really started taking off in the 2000's though I probably assumed I was a great trader or investor or whatever you want to call it. I still have a relative or two that bought near the top and they probably blame me because they saw I was doing well up till then. I try to avoid those relatives now.

PS I was into silver coins as a kid back in the late 70s into early 80s but had long forgotten about them by 2000. I remember buying silver coins in the 6th grade from a kid whose dad had a big coin collection and I paid him double face for them, that is until his dad found out what was going on and I guess realized his mercury dime collection had been getting smaller and smaller.

Jim

 

[mmissinglink]

I traded penny stocks before I got into PM's back in the early 2000's. The key is to get in before the herd on any random stock. It really boils down to luck on these. I made several thousands $$$ on a handful of penny stocks I got very lucky on. Then I got cocky and started buying randomly and lost most of my gains. I got out just in time to catch the early bull moves in PMs, only later to lose some of that back over the past 4 years.

I didn't realize it earlier, but you have a very interesting case there early 2000 when you got into PM's.
It's just after the Washington Agreement on gold, the first central bank gold agreement, that so-called limited government gold sales (but in reality it wasn't really a limit since it it was as high as the common annual sales, and they sold in the subsequent years even more).
Nearly all mint sales show a decades (!) recordbottom figure for 2000. Your PM entrance then, must be a school example of what they name "going against the herd". Most not buying / selling instead, you did the opposite.
What exactly made you decide to buy PM's then? Or was it luck / circumstances?

I stopped trading the penny stocks some time around 2002 or 2003, it was after that I got into PMs. Somehow I had been reading about the dollar going to crash and PM's going to the moon type stuff. So I would say it was luck since it wasn't from me coming up with original theories or anything like that.

Once PM's really started taking off in the 2000's though I probably assumed I was a great trader or investor or whatever you want to call it. I still have a relative or two that bought near the top and they probably blame me because they saw I was doing well up till then. I try to avoid those relatives now.

PS I was into silver coins as a kid back in the late 70s into early 80s but had long forgotten about them by 2000. I remember buying silver coins in the 6th grade from a kid whose dad had a big coin collection and I paid him double face for them, that is until his dad found out what was going on and I guess realized his mercury dime collection had been getting smaller and smaller.

Jim

Buying silver Mercury dimes for 20 cents a piece? Nice!




.

 

[Jim4silver]

Buying silver Mercury dimes for 20 cents a piece? Nice!

.

I remember selling them during that time for 16X face- I don't know what silver was at I just remember getting that from the coin store per coin and the coin store employee asking my dad who was with me where I got the coins. I don't remember what he told them. I should have quit grade school and opened a pawn shop or something- I thought it was awesome buying the coins for 20 cents and selling them for $1.60 each.

Jim

 

[mmissinglink]

Buying silver Mercury dimes for 20 cents a piece? Nice!

.

I remember selling them during that time for 16X face- I don't know what silver was at I just remember getting that from the coin store per coin and the coin store employee asking my dad who was with me where I got the coins. I don't remember what he told them. I should have quit grade school and opened a pawn shop or something- I thought it was awesome buying the coins for 20 cents and selling them for $1.60 each.

Jim

If the coin shop was paying a kid who was more or less clueless about the value $1.60 each.....imagine how much they were turning around and pricing it at?



.

 

[Jim4silver]

Buying silver Mercury dimes for 20 cents a piece? Nice!

.

I remember selling them during that time for 16X face- I don't know what silver was at I just remember getting that from the coin store per coin and the coin store employee asking my dad who was with me where I got the coins. I don't remember what he told them. I should have quit grade school and opened a pawn shop or something- I thought it was awesome buying the coins for 20 cents and selling them for $1.60 each.

Jim

If the coin shop was paying a kid who was more or less clueless about the value $1.60 each.....imagine how much they were turning around and pricing it at?



.

This happened during the Hunt Bros era. I don't remember if when I sold it was on the way up to $50 or on the way down from it, but it was in that time period. I knew generally what they were worth when I bought them from the other kid. There was much attention to silver and gold then in the MSM and local coin shops were running ads offering how much they would pay for silver coins, etc in the local paper (this was of course before internet and even cable tv where I lived- ancient times). People were cashing in the family silverware sets, grandpa's coin collection, and whatever else they could get their hands on.

Jim

 

[mmissinglink]

I remember selling them during that time for 16X face- I don't know what silver was at I just remember getting that from the coin store per coin and the coin store employee asking my dad who was with me where I got the coins. I don't remember what he told them. I should have quit grade school and opened a pawn shop or something- I thought it was awesome buying the coins for 20 cents and selling them for $1.60 each.

Jim

If the coin shop was paying a kid who was more or less clueless about the value $1.60 each.....imagine how much they were turning around and pricing it at?

.

This happened during the Hunt Bros era. I don't remember if when I sold it was on the way up to $50 or on the way down from it, but it was in that time period. I knew generally what they were worth when I bought them from the other kid. There was much attention to silver and gold then in the MSM and local coin shops were running ads offering how much they would pay for silver coins, etc in the local paper (this was of course before internet and even cable tv where I lived- ancient times). People were cashing in the family silverware sets, grandpa's coin collection, and whatever else they could get their hands on.

Jim

The Hunt Bros era was a looooooong time before I was bitten by the precious metals bug. I've never experienced anything remotely close to a bull rally....it's been all downhill since I got into the game.....and hopefully not because I got into the game! :lol:




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[Pirocco]

I've read many times that 1980 $50 peak (actually, the annual average, which -does- reflect the ounces demand that year, was mostly/only $16.4) due to the Hunt brothers, but according to some other sources (alike silverinstitute) that wasn't true, during those high inflation years there was a broad run from fiat away to other assets including silver.
This is a first hand story, and that "People were cashing in the family silverware sets, grandpa's coin collection, and whatever else they could get their hands on" just shows: a big buying side needs a big selling side, and confirms above.
It's clear who were the better informed people at that time, and in 2011.
I've learnt this: a crisis can, in real terms, not mean much. 2008 etc, big bankrupties, big hay around the world, but, very few bank depositors lost savings, and nearly the entire debt club got away with the theft they committed during the years earlier, and still continues upto present day. I see a crisis now more as a central planned attempt to make bank depositors waste enough savings along only temporary increased prices of speculated-upon assets, the days that central planners just "brutally" printed more fiat in order to continue their spending for nothing in return, are, with some small peanut examples like Zimbabwe, long gone. Central planning today is smarter than central planning in the past.

Purchasing power of savings is preserved not inside but outside bogus crises. That is the lesson to learn here. And precisely doing that, is what causes real crises. Central planners that fail to make the bestolen currencyholders lose their fiat promises due to legal - own risk taking, are bound to shift to more open / brutal theft, and such is the first nail in their coffin, the begin of their end. That is what really "turns the corner".

 

[phrenzy]

I've read many times that 1980 $50 peak (actually, the annual average, which -does- reflect the ounces demand that year, was mostly/only $16.4) due to the Hunt brothers, but according to some other sources (alike silverinstitute) that wasn't true, during those high inflation years there was a broad run from fiat away to other assets including silver.
This is a first hand story, and that "People were cashing in the family silverware sets, grandpa's coin collection, and whatever else they could get their hands on" just shows: a big buying side needs a big selling side, and confirms above.
It's clear who were the better informed people at that time, and in 2011.
I've learnt this: a crisis can, in real terms, not mean much. 2008 etc, big bankrupties, big hay around the world, but, very few bank depositors lost savings, and nearly the entire debt club got away with the theft they committed during the years earlier, and still continues upto present day. I see a crisis now more as a central planned attempt to make bank depositors waste enough savings along only temporary increased prices of speculated-upon assets, the days that central planners just "brutally" printed more fiat in order to continue their spending for nothing in return, are, with some small peanut examples like Zimbabwe, long gone. Central planning today is smarter than central planning in the past.

Purchasing power of savings is preserved not inside but outside bogus crises. That is the lesson to learn here. And precisely doing that, is what causes real crises. Central planners that fail to make the bestolen currencyholders lose their fiat promises due to legal - own risk taking, are bound to shift to more open / brutal theft, and such is the first nail in their coffin, the begin of their end. That is what really "turns the corner".

I wasn't there, but wasn't it morning in America when that happened?

 

[leon1998]

Silver has been on top of US$16 for two consecutive sessions.

Looking good to challenge US$17/oz

 

[Pirocco]

I've read many times that 1980 $50 peak (actually, the annual average, which -does- reflect the ounces demand that year, was mostly/only $16.4) due to the Hunt brothers, but according to some other sources (alike silverinstitute) that wasn't true, during those high inflation years there was a broad run from fiat away to other assets including silver.
This is a first hand story, and that "People were cashing in the family silverware sets, grandpa's coin collection, and whatever else they could get their hands on" just shows: a big buying side needs a big selling side, and confirms above.
It's clear who were the better informed people at that time, and in 2011.
I've learnt this: a crisis can, in real terms, not mean much. 2008 etc, big bankrupties, big hay around the world, but, very few bank depositors lost savings, and nearly the entire debt club got away with the theft they committed during the years earlier, and still continues upto present day. I see a crisis now more as a central planned attempt to make bank depositors waste enough savings along only temporary increased prices of speculated-upon assets, the days that central planners just "brutally" printed more fiat in order to continue their spending for nothing in return, are, with some small peanut examples like Zimbabwe, long gone. Central planning today is smarter than central planning in the past.

Purchasing power of savings is preserved not inside but outside bogus crises. That is the lesson to learn here. And precisely doing that, is what causes real crises. Central planners that fail to make the bestolen currencyholders lose their fiat promises due to legal - own risk taking, are bound to shift to more open / brutal theft, and such is the first nail in their coffin, the begin of their end. That is what really "turns the corner".

I wasn't there, but wasn't it morning in America when that happened?

America itself, is colonized by people who wanted to get rid of the crap that governments brought in their homeland.
Every village / town has stories of people that were pushed by governments into crap, and they abandoned, for that new land.
It's also one of the reasons that some old (and heavily under fire today) US laws specifically addressed a / any government as a source of crap.
Some centuries passed, and US government steadily shifted towards becoming the same pest it was in the Europe they left behind.
Moving out, is just one measure the bestolen can take. Smarter decisions that make it governments harder to steal, harder to hide its thief-nature, are basically just the same.
Of course, there is a government side in the world, a population part that benefits from the theft. Those do not like that, of course.

 

[Pirocco]

Silver has been on top of US$16 for two consecutive sessions.

Looking good to challenge US$17/oz

After the late seventies / eighties, being high monetary inflation years, it took a couple decades to "challenge" anything again.
Why would the 2003-2011 story be different?
The single big reason for people to become willing to pay higher prices, is other prices rising too.
Didn't happen.
Because QE was and still is nothing but a scam. Expectation of inflation isn't inflation.

 

[leon1998]

Silver has been on top of US$16 for two consecutive sessions.

Looking good to challenge US$17/oz

As of now, silver spot climbs to US$16.83/oz; not far away from 17

 

[mmissinglink]

2016: the return of the Silver Phoenix!

Risen from the ashes to soar again!




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[Krakked789]

This is mesmerizing to watch.

 

[Krakked789]

Just hit $US 17/ oz. Wow!

 

[leon1998]

The best option for Silver, is to consolidate around US$17 for at least several weeks; preferably between 16.5 and 17. This will pave the way for further upside movement.

If Silver tries US$18 in the next week (you know the FOMC blow-job meeting), then it doesn't bode well for the price movement in the near future.

Just my two oz.

 

[leon1998]

Silver price is going parabolic, close to US$18/oz now.

NOT a good sign, short/mid term.