New evidence suggests that Seattle's 'radical experiment' might be a model for the rest of the nation not to follow
Seattle's city council made history in June 2014 by unanimously passing legislation that will eventually bring the city's minimum wage up to $15 an hour, the highest in the nation. Washington State already had the distinction at that time of having the highest state minimum wage in the country at $9.32 an hour. The first increase to $10 an hour for some Seattle businesses and $11 for others took place on April 1, 2015. Additional increases to $12.00, $12.50 or $13 an hour took effect for most employers on January 1, 2016. Further increases will continue until the city's minimum wage reaches the full $15 an hour, which will happen on the first of the year in either 2017, 2018 or 2019 for most employers and as late as January 2021 for some small businesses with fewer than 500 employees.
Seattle mayor Ed Murray applauded the city council in 2014 and remarked then that, "Some have called what we have done a radical experiment. I disagree. The real radical experiment has been the economic policy of the last 34 years that has dismantled our middle class. Today we have taken bold action to begin to reverse that radical trend. Today we have taken action that will serve as a model for the rest of the nation to follow."
Now that the first Seattle minimum wage increase has been in effect for more than ten months, and as local employers brace for the additional minimum wage hikes that will eventually increase their annual labor costs per full-time minimum wage worker by 61% and by a whopping $11,300 (from the increase in hourly labor costs from $9.32 to $15 an hour), are there any noticeable effects so far on the city's labor market? Is Seattle's radical experiment with the highest-ever minimum wage in US history serving as a "model for the rest of the nation to follow"? Or is Seattle serving as an "economic canary in the coal mine" for other cities and states (and the country) considering the "bold action" of imposing higher labor costs on employers by as much as $15,500 annually per full-time minimum wage workers if they enact legislation increasing the minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 an hour?
Early evidence from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Seattle's monthly employment, the number of unemployed workers, and the city's unemployment rate through December 2015 suggest that since last April when the first minimum wage hike took effect: a) the city's employment has fallen by more than 11,000, b) the number of unemployed workers has risen by nearly 5,000, and c) the city's jobless rate has increased by more than 1 percentage point (all based on BLS's "not seasonally adjusted basis").