Germany to repatriate gold

[Logik]

...

Good post but a few points:

1) Are they transporting it evenly? Nobody knows. It's not clear if it's a 6 year wait with 1 year of transporting or if they are transporting constantly from now until 2020.
2) As someone else mentioned, the navy would likely transport the gold. I don't think they are going to get ship-jacked.
3) For what it's worth, the Germans are moving 300T of their reserve, not 674T but your points still stand anyway.

To continue your admirable tone of actual analysis and facts (which should be applauded since it is sometimes absent in these communities) we should ask whether there have been large transfers of gold reserves in the past, and how long they have taken. Then we have something to compare against. Someone already mentioned the French, are there any other cases?

They're pulling 300 tonnes from the Fed and another 374 tonnes from France, which will reduce their French holdings to zero, for a total of 674 tonnes.

Obviously the distance between France and Germany is shorter than from the U.S. to Germany, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's easier or safer. There are a lot of very experienced criminals in Europe and they can cross borders and hijack armoured cars very easily (and they do).

I also don't think that the Germans trying to freak anyone out and start a run on gold or they'd be repatriating all of theirs, not just some of it. The time frame makes the whole thing very boring. A flotilla of German warships sailing into New York Harbour on the other hand isn't boring at all. That was one of the things that pissed off the Americans when the French did it. They made a big, bold statement about how it was so important and so valuable and how they were not keeping it in America any more. The "gold window" closed shortly after.

Basically, I think the time frame has less to do with giving the Americans time to come up with the gold and more to do with the logistical issues of moving that much valuable stuff around the world securely.

I didn't pick up on the 300T / 374T thing. My bad.

I think both points can be true. Certainly, moving that much gold is a logistical nightmare. But that doesn't necessarily exclude the possibility that the holders of the gold just want 7 years anyway to mitigate the impact of the request on their rehypothecation shenanigans.

I think people's theory is that they have the gold physically, but they dont "have" it in the sense that it's been leased out 100 times and removing it from the chain suddenly would cause them a great deal of pain. That's what seems likely and the 7 year timeline doesn't prove anything, in a logical sense, but it certainly doesn't disprove the theory either.

Anyway the Bundesbank aren't idiots, they know the gold isn't just sitting there in a big vault labelled "Germany" waiting for them to request it. IMO they say 7 years so as not to cause a fuss.

PS. If I borrow your car, then you ask for it back, and I say that I do have it and I will give it back, but not right away; do I really have it?!

 

[Silverthorn]

Well to be fair if there wasn't pressure from the people I doubt the bundesbank would bother.

and whens the last time a Central bank did what the people asked?

The US people have been just asking to LOOK at their gold, yet i dont see them budging.

fair point, the german court had an impact as well from memory.

 

[fiatphoney]

Has anyone considered the logistics of actually counting out, transporting, counting in and then testing 674 tonnes of gold?
.

Good point's.

Now why would Germany go to all this effort for some old fashion metal that has a small market value of only 37 billion dollars? That's the big question??

Yea why don't the Germans just convert the sum to Boeing frequent flyer points, that small amount will fly away in politicians travel junkets anyway.
Where the Boeing Dreamliner burning batteries can rain bricks of liquified gold droplets amongst the contrails for a spectacular relic rainbow.

 

[Big A.D.]

Basically, I think the time frame has less to do with giving the Americans time to come up with the gold and more to do with the logistical issues of moving that much valuable stuff around the world securely.

I respectfully disagree

Well, you probably don't have experience in cash handling and secure logistics like I do, but I'm not exactly shocked to hear you disagree with me anyway.

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

Basically, I think the time frame has less to do with giving the Americans time to come up with the gold and more to do with the logistical issues of moving that much valuable stuff around the world securely.

I respectfully disagree

Well, you probably don't have experience in cash handling and secure logistics like I do, but I'm not exactly shocked to hear you disagree with me anyway.

If France could do it in the 70's using their navy, then i'm pretty sure that Germany could do it today with theirs!
The fact that the Germans are at least ten times more efficient and better at just about everything than the French ever were makes your argument even more unlikely...

One would have to be pretty retarded to actually believe that the 7 year period is there for any reason other than that the Americans cannot actually make that gold available now - without collapsing the whole rotten system.

 

[theiain1]

Spreading the transport out over 8 years in smaller lots would go a long way to mitigate risk

Until there is an independent audit made public - what is in the vault is an open question

The amount ze Germans have announced they intend to move is only a small fraction (<5%) of what is claimed to be in the vault

 

[Lovey80]

Agree with YKY on the logistics. In Iraq there was warehouses full of USD on pallets to be distributed to areas they used private contractors to make the deliveries.

How hard would it be to send a decent size warship, even a naval supply ship escorted by subs and frigates to the US and pick the stuff up. They could get every single kilo in one round trip and write the cost off out of their Naval training budget.

Any talk of this being a hard logistical enterprise is simply talking rubbish or never seen military logistics at work..

 

[Big A.D.]

I respectfully disagree

Well, you probably don't have experience in cash handling and secure logistics like I do, but I'm not exactly shocked to hear you disagree with me anyway.

If France could do it in the 70's using their navy, then i'm pretty sure that Germany could do it today with theirs!
The fact that the Germans are at least ten times more efficient and better at just about everything than the French ever were makes your argument even more unlikely...

One would have to be pretty retarded to actually believe that the 7 year period is there for any reason other than that the Americans cannot actually make that gold available now - without collapsing the whole rotten system.

Like I said, even if there isn't a single gram of gold missing, having the German navy rock up to collect the whole lot in one go would draw a lot of attention to the transfer. Germany isn't in a hurry to collect it - they don't desperately need it, they've sat down and decided that everyone would just feel better if they had it - so why make a big song and dance about things?

Moving 300 tonnes of anything is difficult.

Moving anything worth $16.5 billion dollars is difficult too.

The gold isn't going to magically appear in the Bundesbank's vaults. Somewhere between Frankfurt and New York there are a lot of logistics managers sitting down to work out how to get it from one place to another without any of it going missing or anyone getting killed. Either of those things are quite possible if they don't come up with some decent plans, and even then there are no guarantees.

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

The German military could handle the logistics with ease.

The logistics argument is unadulterated BS.

 

[JulieW]

In Iraq there was warehouses full of USD on pallets to be distributed to areas they used private contractors to make the deliveries.

Why am I not surprised.

Actually my first thought was a long caravan of Volkswagen Beetles each with their gold bricks under the bonnet.

Source: VW

and they float!

Source: Tom McMahon

 

[Big A.D.]

The German military could handle the logistics with ease.

The logistics argument is unadulterated BS.

And you think the Americans would be happy with the Germans conducting a military operation on the streets of lower Manhattan?

You think nobody is going to put photos of German soldiers (or warships) up on Facebook and Twitter and start talking about "Nazis come to America to take back their gold" or "Germany starts run on the Fed, will shoot if they don't hand over the gold"?

There is a lot of really, really bad PR in this for both the Germans and the Americans if they don't handle it sensibly.

Look, all of this stuff can be done. It isn't impossible or anything, but it would just be complete overkill.

The Germans aren't desperate to get their gold back right now after it's been sitting in an American vault for decades. They're just going to pull it out slowly, probably through the same commercial secure logistics providers that everyone else uses, and then they'll send it to the same commercial assayers and refiners that everyone else uses and then they'll put it in their own vaults and everything will be sweet.

 

[grinners]

7 years is an extremely long time to transfer 16.5 billion dollars and 300 tonnes of material.

There is more to it than just the transport logistics.

They don't want to rock the boat, they want their gold and not for any windows to close again by asking for too much at once

 

[Silverthorn]

Spreading the transport out over 8 years in smaller lots would go a long way to mitigate risk

I tend to think a very large number of shipments increases the risk of some gold going missing myself. You're just reducing the amount that may go missing.

 

[Marsi]

What a croc- this is absurd- first no u cant even look at it - then ok we will give it back but it will take 7 years- what next? Oh what we meant was 7 dog years so we still have 42 years to go!

 

[mdh]

In Iraq there was warehouses full of USD on pallets to be distributed to areas they used private contractors to make the deliveries.

Why am I not surprised.

Actually my first thought was a long caravan of Volkswagen Beetles each with their gold bricks under the bonnet.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rn1l9-ntG.../Cool+&+Sweet+Vintage+Volkswagen+Ads+(15).jpg
Source: VW

and they float!
http://tommcmahon.typepad.com/.a/6a00d834515db069e20115714e8332970b-800wi
Source: Tom McMahon

Transporting gold in floating VW's, pffft.

Better off using flying minis

Source:

 

[southerncross]

Logistics is a total furphy, Two Aircraft could do the jump in one run from NY to Berlin. And there would be no need for Germans to be on the streets at all, a single convoy from the vault to the airport is all that is needed. Regular weekly runs over seven years is way more of a risk than a single one off operation.

They could always run it over in an oiltanker.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNkM9o41lb4[/youtube]

 

[Nugget]

300tonnes is roughly the weight of 5 Abrams tanks (69.5t each).

Can the US transport 5 Abrams across the world? Just chuck one of the Obama's in each of the aircraft transporting the Gold and that'll ensure nothing happens to the aircraft.

Easy

 

[theiain1]

You're just reducing the amount that may go missing.

A small number of consignments would be uninsurable - that's what they are trying to do

 

[Redfawn]

Agree with YKY on the logistics. In Iraq there was warehouses full of USD on pallets to be distributed to areas they used private contractors to make the deliveries.

How hard would it be to send a decent size warship, even a naval supply ship escorted by subs and frigates to the US and pick the stuff up. They could get every single kilo in one round trip and write the cost off out of their Naval training budget.

Any talk of this being a hard logistical enterprise is simply talking rubbish or never seen military logistics at work..

I agree with this scenario. A decent size Naval Supply ship with escorts simply sail home, across the Atlantic.

Not only that. the Germans have plenty of guns big and small to ensure security.

As regards a 7 year process, hmmmmm

 

[mmm....shiney!]

Any talk of this being a hard logistical enterprise is simply talking rubbish or never seen military logistics at work..

Or a fully armed and operational battle station!!!!!!