Friday 8% Smackdown

I thought gold would jump with a trump win.
Starting to think it's impossible to predict.

Starting to think I could make good money betting against my predictions.
 
SilverDJ said:
So did anyone predict a 10% drop in silver, especially after the Trump win?
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There are things that happen before and there are things that happen after.
There was a "before Trump win", where a hedge book blowed up the price 6 dollars above the cash market supply/demand.
It doesn't really matter which event triggers a dump from the hedge. Debt ceilings japan earthquakes osama bin laden killed etc also proved themselves as irrelevant.
 
I expect it to go much lower - like 20-18 AUD by the "expected" rates rise. I expect to keep buying during this time. I expect a rates CUT early next year and/or massive market damage by incorrectly increasing rates in a poor economy that can't take the increase. I expect it to be back up to 30 AUD by mid to late next year.

That's just a guess, but if you want something more accurate I can roll a die.
 
I think you are about on the money there Phil. Only I believe they need to go for smaller increases in the cash rate than 25bps. I think a few 10bps rises would signal the market without causing too much damage.

What most of us here know is that firing up the presses and printing our way to liquidity means they have just kicked the can down the road, and made the pain that needs to be suffered all that much bigger. We need that cleanout of debt. Predatory lenders need to take a haircut. Bankruptcies need to be be taken. The debt needs to be cleared out of the system.
 
Abandon ship!

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Phil_Stacker said:
I expect it to go much lower - like 20-18 AUD by the "expected" rates rise. I expect to keep buying during this time. I expect a rates CUT early next year and/or massive market damage by incorrectly increasing rates in a poor economy that can't take the increase. I expect it to be back up to 30 AUD by mid to late next year.

That's just a guess, but if you want something more accurate I can roll a die.
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Just 3 days ago you commented that you did understand why prices were down and it would not stay like this for long.
LOL.
From reading your comments on different subjects my advice to you is get a financial adviser and hand over control of all your money to them before it is all gone:)
Failing that just give it to your mum or dad to look after.
 
USD will continue to get stronger given the FedEX WILL increase Non Farm Payroll predictors are expecting 170-180K Hence the sell off over the last month.

In 10 mins we will find out what the figure is, and Monday will see a move. In my opinion (read guess) down to 20.
 
And the answer is - the figure came in at around expectations (currently 178 ,000 but that will be revised later). Whatever the case, FedEx will give an increase and Trump is right (in my opinion) that it is poorly timed.

So... expect more "smack downs" especially on silver and gold over the next 4-8 months or so. Most will be immediate.
 
Gullintanni said:
Phil_Stacker said:
I expect it to go much lower - like 20-18 AUD by the "expected" rates rise. I expect to keep buying during this time. I expect a rates CUT early next year and/or massive market damage by incorrectly increasing rates in a poor economy that can't take the increase. I expect it to be back up to 30 AUD by mid to late next year.

That's just a guess, but if you want something more accurate I can roll a die.
Click to expand...
Just 3 days ago you commented that you did understand why prices were down and it would not stay like this for long.
LOL.
From reading your comments on different subjects my advice to you is get a financial adviser and hand over control of all your money to them before it is all gone:)
Failing that just give it to your mum or dad to look after.
Click to expand...

Yeah - it's called learning. You say something, you learn something, you realise you were wrong and you make a new opinion. So.... I was wrong, and I'm just as likely to be wrong this time.

I have no crystal ball and I am new to PMs.

My stocks and cash are doing fine.... staying away from bonds right now, but they did me well in the past. PMs is new to me.

I've only invested a couple of hundred oz in PMs, roughly 50/50 split. I honestly think I got in way too early and I've burnt money. I really do think it will go down further. I really do think that most of this is speculation and guesstimates.

That's the whole point of risk, you think about how accurately you believe something, and put money behind it to that degree. I don't know enough about PMs to put much in, this is just playing.

Isn't gambling meant to be fun?
 
I've been riding the smack down in gold and have made good cash on it. Even though I'm a huge gold bug.
Personally there will be one more smack down before or after the rate hike. From there we will have to wait for economic data for it to soar again.
 
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