Silverpv said:
badon said:
Having so many different choices is a good problem to have. I have been experimenting with the way CCF works. Basically it's the exact opposite of LBC. LBC was one continuous thread that stretched for over 5000 posts before we finally made the switch to CCF. Now, CCF has lots of topics, but none of them are super huge. The benefit to the LBC way is you only have one place to look for information. The benefit to the CCF way is everything is organized (like a library catalog) so you can find what you want to read much more easily. If you don't know what you want to read, the LBC way might be better. So, I have maintained my "MCC list" at CCF so we can have a big long continuous thread, and whenever discussions branch off, I split them into new topics that you can easily find.
Everyone learns differently, and that's why there are different forums that each have their own "style".
My latest project has been to figure out how to put it all together, to surface the best information from each source. Reddit seems ideal for this. So, I have started several Reddit groups that I hope will make it easier to find information at all of the forums, news sites, etc. They're all very new, so there isn't much content yet, but maybe we can collaborate to turn this is into a thing.
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https://www.reddit.com/r/ChineseCoins/
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https://www.reddit.com/r/ModernChineseCoins/
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https://www.reddit.com/r/Panda_Coin/
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https://www.reddit.com/r/Gold_Panda/
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https://www.reddit.com/r/LunarCoin/
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https://www.reddit.com/r/PhysicalCryptoCoins/
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https://www.reddit.com/r/ModernCoins/
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https://www.reddit.com/r/CoinInvesting/
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https://www.reddit.com/r/CoinFakes/
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https://www.reddit.com/r/ArtInvesting/
The catch is I can't post stuff from the forums I personally operate, as a matter of principle against spamming. What I CAN do is post other people's stuff. This is actually a very good idea from the Reddit people. Obviously authors are biased in thinking their stuff is great, so Reddit prefers content submitted by someone other than the author. I can post numistacker's videos, barsenault's photos, etc, but I can't post my own stuff. It's a simple formula that works to surface the best information, from any source.
So what does SilverStacker's say? Is this something we can use to help each other find the best info? At the very least, it seems like an option worth exploring to see what happens.
Does this mean you'll be shutting your site down and importing into reddit? I've seen your recent posts and it is more redirecting/x-posting nightmare. The whole point of reddit, is to share/consume useful articles and discuss quickly and timely. So many of your links, link to another link, to another link. Also, are you trying to replicate your forum in reddit? Self promotion is ok as long as its not over done, the community will decide what is useful and what is not. The subreddits live or die by the community in the sub. So when you are spread so thin, it will be difficult to get the best information from the best people because the information is 1.) not easily consumed 2.) limited due to the number of contributors 3.) spread across multiple subs. 4.) Contributors won't know where to stay. It's not your traditional forum style and I think that's why people like it. The sub is the forum /destination and the article is the thread. A threads lifetime is dictated by the participation. If you limited your sub to a badon thread and posted all your findings there, then that is a bit closer to the intent of reddit. There you would be able to moderate and curate the articles and rebuild your community and siphon off users from other subreddits that are interested in your style. The only thing to watch out for are moderators banning you for too many cross posts. You should also look at morezone, he's an avid collector of chinese medals and collectibles on youtube. I do believe there is quite a lot more information and contributors to source from. It just takes a little letting to go to from owner/curated driven to community/curated driven.
Also, your passive aggressive tone of the CMF forum surprises me. It's been almost 4 years since that's done but you still call them a threat. I've been there for a year and over a dozen transactions (local and international) and I have no clue what you are talking about when it comes to saftey or fraud. Both discuss some words of wisdom on saftey of your investment, but that is more speculation. I tend to stick with fiat pandas as you would call them. Several of them have made me money.
With all that said, since you are a contributor. What do you think of the current market? Where is it heading? What needs to happen for the market to correct and reaccelerate? What provides the best value right now?
That's a lot of great info! I'm going to break up your quote into parts so I can focus on each of them. Here we go...
Silverpv said:
Does this mean you'll be shutting your site down and importing into reddit? [...] Also, are you trying to replicate your forum in reddit? [...] If you limited your sub to a badon thread [...] you would be able to rebuild your community and siphon off users from other subreddits that are interested in your style.
No. Nothing is shutting down, and nothing is moving. Reddit is separate from all the other forums, and it will remain that way. Like you said, Reddit is a completely different kind of "forum" - It's more like twitter, but "crowd-curated" to surface the newest and best content above all the rest. Reddit gives people a another way to find information, no matter where it is, or what format it is published in.
A good example of something Reddit does well that forums are not so good at, is posting of news articles. If I tried to post every interesting news article on the forums, it would be too noisy. And, posting just a link isn't what is normally expected on forums. I post a link to a news article on a forum, it is expected for it to come with a detailed commentary. On Reddit, it's just a link, and if people think it's not useful, it will won't be distracting people by taking up space at the top of the list of posts (like forums do with recent posts).
Silverpv said:
[...] the community will decide what is useful and what is not. The subreddits live or die by the community in the sub. So when you are spread so thin, it will be difficult to get the best information from the best people because the information is 1.) not easily consumed 2.) limited due to the number of contributors 3.) spread across multiple subs. 4.) Contributors won't know where to stay. It's not your traditional forum style and I think that's why people like it. The sub is the forum /destination and the article is the thread. A threads lifetime is dictated by the participation. [...]
I'm fairly new to Reddit, so I'm paying attention to any advice or suggestions people might have. The reason why I made so many different subreddits is because someone may be interested only in pandas, or only in gold pandas, while other people may want all of it collected in one place for all Chinese coins. The cross-posting is just me being a librarian and organizing things like I do on CCF, but maybe that isn't compatible with Reddit, and there might be a limit to how much cross-posting I do before it becomes a usability problem. For example, an article about gold pandas could go in
/r/ChineseCoins, then
/r/Panda_Coin/, then
/r/Gold_Panda/. It's not necessary to put it in all those places, and lately I have received similar feedback like yours, so now I'm trying to make judgment calls about whether it would be interesting to each subreddit, before the voting even starts.
I'm also watching what happens to each subreddit. Sometimes the ones I thought would be the most popular are not, and others are turning out to be growing much faster.
/r/CoinInvesting/ is growing the fastest, and
/r/ModernCoins/ is the second fastest.
/r/CoinFakes/ and
/r/ArtInvesting/ are too new to know how fast they will grow, but so far
/r/ArtInvesting/ is growing the fastest. Art investing is closely related to coin investing, so I'm learning a lot by finding articles about art investing even though the only art investing I'm doing right now is in coinage art. Some of the news articles have been worthy of cross-posting too.
Silverpv said:
What do you think of the current market? Where is it heading?
The market has been in a long consolidation phase for about 2 years, but we're starting to occasionally see some impressive price gains rippling through the market again this year (2016). Most of the action has been in the fiat gold pandas, but I stayed out of the "master set" frenzy, since I think it got overheated. That said, I did not sell ANY of my rare fiat pandas, because regardless of what happens, they're too hard to replace. What is happening now is a sector rotation out of the overheat fiat, and into the cooler coins, both fiat and non-fiat.
The fiat cultural coin are being marketed heavily in China's network of banks right now, and they have achieved impressive price gains despite mintages in the millions. That's good news for the market, but I'm NOT following the crowd and investing in those, because their high mintages are only considered high when there are better investments available.
One reason why CCF is taking off right now (besides completing the move from LBC) is because I was right about non-fiat coins getting more attention when people start questioning the dramatically higher prices they're paying for fiat. When price versus rarity is considered, people know exactly why the prices came down recently on some of the hottest and highest mintage fiat. The most important thing to know is, the People's Republic of China (PRC) official government mints are losing interest in producing low-mintage coins. In the past, people thought they could buy them any time they wanted, and the mints will always make more.
Now, Shanghai doesn't want to mint anything with a mintage of less than 30'000, and the VIP-only panda expo series is going to be canceled because of it. Shenyang and Shenzhen are still willing to make them sometimes, but this year it appears they won't do it cheap for anything with a mintage under 5000, like the 2016 panda moon festival. Nanjing is the last of the 4 official government mints of the PRC that will still produce low mintage coins for low prices.
The unexpected success of the Nanjing pandas might change all that, which will be good for everyone who already has Nanjing pandas and other Nanjing low mintage coins. Nanjing panda collectors are hoping for a higher mintage if the Nanjing mint makes a gold panda for 2016, but there isn't much time left in the year to do that. We might have to wait until 2017 to get gold and/or higher mintages for the next set of the Nanjing pandas. Regardless of what happens in the remainder of 2016 and in 2017, the trend is clear, low mintages are disappearing, and the market is gradually learning about that fact. I'm collecting information about the decline of low mintages in this CCF article:
2016 4th panda expo coin design proposals, mint losing interest in low mintages
Silverpv said:
What needs to happen for the market to correct and reaccelerate?
The worldwide coin market needs:
1. The stability of slow strengthening.
2. Participation of the general public.
3. Higher than normal inflation.
4. No large crisis, collapse, war, unemployment, or catastrophes that affect coin buyers.
We have had all of those during the last 2 years, except #3. Sometimes #3 can cause problems with #4, and vice-versa. Deflation is worse than inflation.
Silverpv said:
I tend to stick with fiat pandas as you would call them. Several of them have made me money. [...] What provides the best value right now?
All or nearly all of the lowest mintage coins are non-fiat. The divide between mintages of non-fiat and fiat is so wide - often hundreds versus millions - they are sort of becoming associated with "low mintage" and "high mintage". When people hear "non-fiat" (or related terms), they naturally expect that to mean "low mintage". That trend is very old, so it's not going to go away any time soon, but what makes it so exciting is it appears the non-fiat coins are suddenly starting to accelerate.
Yes, my answer to your other question about the market acceleration quoted above means the market as a whole is could start to accelerate at the same time as some of the low mintage fiat-coins are independently accelerating. Things might get crazy and very exciting if that happens. Millionaires will be made. CCF member Y7ASyxC has attempted to research the causes of sudden acceleration in non-fiat coins, because it could lead to insights that can give us some idea of what coins might be the best investments in the future. His research is here:
The new non-fiat era - A preliminary crime scene investigation.
The ultra-short version is, "non-fiat" is developing a good reputation for being profitable right now.
The longer version is, the Nanjing 2016 pandas are probably responsible. Nanjing pandas were first minted in 2014, but at the time they were supposed to be an obscure and expensive endangered animals series. The power-players at the Nanjing mint (sponsors etc) noticed our discussions about them at LBC and CCF, and they realized they had just created the first and only pandas the Nanjing mint has ever produced. That is a big deal for all panda collectors, because everyone knows the first 1982 gold panda (non-fiat!) and the first 1983 silver panda are among the most valuable ones, solely because they were first.
All 3 of the other official mints at Shanghai, Shenyang, and Shenzhen are involved in minting fiat pandas, but the Nanjing mint is bizarrely excluded. Without permission from the central bank, they can't mint anything with a fiat number on it - it is indistinguishable from a copyright on the yuan symbol. The yuan symbol can't be copied without permission, even though it is literally meaningless. Kind of like how it might be possible to buy groceries with nicely printed copies of nonsense bad poetry, but you could be sued if you try to do it with someone else's copyrighted bad poetry.
So, without the opportunity to mint fiat pandas, the Nanjing mint decided to commit to turning the 2014 pandas into a real panda series, starting by minting more of them in 2016. That got everyone's attention, but the Nanjing mint didn't stop there. They reduced the prices AND they reduced the mintages on the 2016 Nanjing pandas, and only CCF members were invited to pre-order them. The best one, the Nanjing 2016 65 g silver panda, sold out in about 3 hours.
They sold so fast, I only got 1 for myself before I realized what was happening. After that, it was too late to get any extras. That means I can't sell mine, or my set will be incomplete. If other people are the same as me, then it will quickly become very difficult to buy one on the secondary market. That is good for the future value of those coins.
Silverpv said:
What provides the best value right now?
If you want to stick with fiat, look at the ones that have been overlooked during the "master set" frenzy. My personal favorite is the 1995 1 oz gold panda proof, with an authorized mintage of 2000, an actual mintage of 555, and a surviving population of about 100 known specimens. If you are lucky enough to find one for sale, it could probably be bought for between $8000 and $10'000 in 69 grade right now. Compare to the 1995 1/2 oz gold panda with a surviving population of around 3000 to 4000 specimens, and a peak price of about $27'500.
Although the 1995 1 oz gold panda proof is my personal favorite, there are other fiat pandas that will probably be more profitable, simply because they're less expensive and can rise more percentagewise before people can't afford to push prices higher anymore. Immediately coming to mind is the 1995 1 oz silver panda Shenyang small date (microdate), which has a surviving population of 4000 last I heard, which is almost exactly the same as the 1995 1/2 oz gold panda - except the silver one will cost you around $1000 or less in a nice 69 grade.
The next fiat panda that comes to mind is the 1995 1 oz silver panda proof, because it's the key for the proof pandas, AND it has 4 major varieties that split up the surviving population even more. Those 4 varieties mean every proof panda collector will need to buy 4 of the 1995 silver proof before they will have a complete set. Whatever the surivivng population is, it just got slashed to 1/4 what it would have been if everyone was buying only 1 of them.
The 1992 1 oz silver panda also has 4 major or mid-importance varieties. It's not as rare and not as expensive as the 1995.
After all of the fiat pandas above, next I would probably target a complete set of silver proof pandas. All of them are underpriced compared to their gold counterparts. Since I'm not personally targeting this set, others might be able to give you more information to help you prioritize your purchases if you pursue this route. For myself, I own the 1995 1 oz gold panda proof, the 1995 1 oz silver panda Shenyang small date (microdate), and one of the key varieties of the 1995 1/2 oz silver pandas (I forgot which one). That's it for the main series of fiat pandas, but once again, someone else might be able to name some other rare and underpriced gems you could chase.
If you want to diversify into non-fiat pandas - and all manner of diversification is HIGHLY RECOMMENDED - I think it's reasonable to start with the Nanjing 2016 pandas. Some of them are still available on ebay, and at the moment they're cheaper than all of the the other pandas I have recommended so far, and cheaper than the ones I'll recommend next. Oh, and they're rarer too! That's a very compelling combination.
For everything you could ever want to know about my favorite pandas for investment purposes, I am collecting all of it in this topic at CCF (I will probably link to this post too):
My chat with Hybridsole about 4 RELATED(!) pandas for investment purposes
For non-panda cultural coins, I'm very interested in anything from the Nanjing mint. My top most favorite is the Nanjing 2015 trimetallic silver brass and copper dragon and phoenix set, but those became expensive fast. I really like the Nanjing 2014 brass God of Wealth 2 coin set. They're still dirt cheap despite being by far the most popular gods in Chinese culture, with a mintage of only 100. The copper version is recommended too, once again because of popularity potential, and rarity combined with low price. There have been privately minted imitations that are just barely marketed, and they sell for more money than the official Nanjing mint versions. It appears to me the Nanjing mint has little or no experience or success with marketing their coins. For investment purposes, I'm betting that is all going to change now that the world knows about the Nanjing pandas.
I also have some classical gardens, some lunars, and LOTS of very expensive hand engraved coins from the 1980's and earlier. My #1 most favorite coins of them all are Yi Shizhong's hand engraved goldfish sets, minted in silver in 1984 and 1990. They're also available in brass and gold or silver plated brass, and many of them are quite inexpensive still, so most people should be able to afford SOMETHING that's hand engraved, even from the most expensive goldfish series. The hand engraved 1984 pagodas are also minted in expensive silver and cheaper gold plated brass, and I have a complete set of the silver, but not the brass ones yet. The pagodas and goldfish are closely related, so I collect them both, but I'm only super-serious about the goldfish, with specimens of all dies and varieties, etc.
The one coin that ties together the goldfish and pagodas is the Chen Jian's 1980 silver God of Longevity. There's an interesting story about all that, but this post is getting too long already, so do some searching to find it. Like the pagodas and goldfish, the 1980 God of Longevity is also available in much cheaper copper/brass/bronze (CBB) and gold and silver plated versions.
I'm going to stop here, because I could go on forever about all the wonderful choices that are still available. If you find some favorites, you can ask me for more info and I'd be happy to answer, within the limits of my available time. Silver Stackers is getting my attention just because it's a good forum that I have been reading off and on for years before finally starting to post here now.
Silverpv said:
Also, your passive aggressive tone of the CMF forum surprises me.
There's nothing "passive" about it. I made the decision to compete directly with that forum, and we are winning. That will probably lead to its eventual demise, and the loss of all of the information posted there. I sincerely doubt that is the ideal place to invest your time and effort posting information for the benefit of future generations. The faster that forum dies, the faster people will go to a healthier forum with a better future. Then they won't be wasting energy to share their research and enjoyment of numismatics. Share it with friendly people who will appreciate it.
People who don't read CCF never even knew the 2016 Nanjing pandas existed, until they were already gone or nearly gone. People were afraid to post about them on the hostile forum, so the smart people went to where the action was - at CCF, Silver Stackers, and any of the other friendly forums that don't abuse well-meaning members, and don't delete or suppress valuable information.