For those worried about the Gold (and silver) price drops!

ozcopper

ozcopper

Administrator
Silver Stacker
History doesn't repeat but it sure can rhyme. Back in 1971 gold was around $US35 an ounce. By 1975 it had reached $200 an ounce only to pull all the way back to $100, a full 50% retracement. If you had bought in 1971 and didn't see the price till 1976, you would be very happy as you tripled your money. Four short years later, the price of gold had gone up 8.5 times from the 1976 low to $850.

We are experiencing the exact same thing now. We have had a huge price increase, we are now in the retracement, and the bigger rise is yet to come, more than likely by 2030.
 
I wonder if big shifts will take 10 years now. We are in unprecedented times with AI changing the employment landscape, wars and for the first time in modern history small countries can hit back at the global military superpowers with tiny drones and asymetric warfare techniques. National debts are off the charts and the world is highly connected in the information space.

I suspect that big changes and price swings will compress into shorter time frames that we have traditionally experienced.
 
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Looking pretty good so far. Should break to the upside but we are getting close to finding out regardless. You never really know.
 
ozcopper said:
We are experiencing the exact same thing now. We have had a huge price increase, we are now in the retracement, and the bigger rise is yet to come, more than likely by 2030.
Click to expand...

We also had a large pullback in 2011, the price fluctuated over a 18 month period before a break down that took 10 years to recover.
1971 saw the brenton woods system move away from gold backed currency system, so the surge was backed by the immediate inflation vs gold to the change in the monetary base.

I think the current US stance is to push for their currency to be backed further since recent shifts have many central banks lowering the USD reserves and favouring more diversity, inc gold.

Their debt levels arent sustainable so inflating it away is the objective, and doing so by putting that cash outside US borders is how they will want to do it so its not their problem...

So the USA wants that hawkish, confident USD scenario so their money is adopted...
That probibly means rate hikes are actually going to surprise markets, quickly. Id say 1.5 basis points or more by years end.
That gets the other banks buying it up before other countries follow suit.
Meanwhile...
300B funding to iran for rebuild means OIL pivot to oil supply chain companies that the US is sure to have fully invested into to get that return on their relative market prices/position.
And i wouldnt be surprised in a large market crash in AI once they get their playbook finalised...
They will move most of that via us dollar interest to pivot out to usd, kills market, leverage, and they will hold in the oil supply side safely while everything else tanks.

Its the most manipulative play i can think of.

So yeah, after that,, they will probibly find exit into gold.
Silver will languish, flounder, and have all that manipulated talk abound forrever like usual before it actually pops when it hjts a 10 years of deficit stage,or we actually see issues with china spreads going ape#..
Wont matter tho.. the prices will still track the LIEX index even tho theirs nothn available..
Margins will go bonkers...

Yet...
it will be bought and sold.
and your dollar cos average participant will be better off not being leveraged and having some gold and silver for the ride...
Because the future isnt really isnt all that predictable. And holding physical cash is just a joke.
Its more like...
Participate in your wealth destruction... or...
Pay tax on the difference..

The tax on the difference is less.
 
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