Anyone for predictions of tomorrow's RBA Cash Rate Target?
Here's mine:
Here's mine:
February 2012 - RBA Cash Rate Target Predictions
- Thread starter Roswell Crash Survivor
- Start date
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Guest
Guest
As a renter with minimal cash desposits in the bank, I don't care either way.
That said, the banks have already made it clear they no longer intend to automatically pass rate cuts on to borrowers anyway, so it's a rather moot point.
That said, the banks have already made it clear they no longer intend to automatically pass rate cuts on to borrowers anyway, so it's a rather moot point.
I think a 25 basis point drop again - how much the banks pass on is the next question.
Cut .25pts
Well, being cynical, I would say that to adequately support the US monetary policy of a relatively weaker USD, the RBA will have to raise rates.
+0.25 points.
Before rates are cut the AUD needs to be rejected by its previous high of US$1.10, or mortgage owners and retailers need to be rioting in the street, and there's still more manufacturing industries to be annihilated and jobs to be off-shored.
Come on people, where's your sense of occassion? This is the communist/fascist end game playing out. They have to really destroy things properly you know.
Just joking . . . kind of.
+0.25 points.
Before rates are cut the AUD needs to be rejected by its previous high of US$1.10, or mortgage owners and retailers need to be rioting in the street, and there's still more manufacturing industries to be annihilated and jobs to be off-shored.
Come on people, where's your sense of occassion? This is the communist/fascist end game playing out. They have to really destroy things properly you know.
Just joking . . . kind of.
Ahhhh, scrap. RBA leaves rate unchanged.
At least I wasn't the only that got soaked - the Short-Term AUD Interest Rate Futures were indicating the futures traders estimated the RBA had a more 110% likelihood of some magnitude of decrease.
At least I wasn't the only that got soaked - the Short-Term AUD Interest Rate Futures were indicating the futures traders estimated the RBA had a more 110% likelihood of some magnitude of decrease.
B
Byron
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Roswell Crash Survivor said:
Even if they had cut (which i think they will do next month), the big 4 may not pass on the cut.
This is exactly what I've been thinking of.auspm said:
Cash rate is just becoming more of a RRP (recommended retail price) and the banks are just adding massive markup.
Not that it affects me much - I rent.
RBA cash rate was never meant to set mortgage rates - it's just bank bashing.
Interesting interview on ABC this morning with the Future Fund Chairman David Murray and his view on the political interfernce in banking. http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2012/s3424369.htm
Interesting interview on ABC this morning with the Future Fund Chairman David Murray and his view on the political interfernce in banking. http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2012/s3424369.htm
mmm....shiney! said:
True, but wouldn't it be nice if every business had the same opportunity to maintain profits like the banks can? if you believe that any cut they don't pass on is just to keep their heads above water or because "we need strong banks" then sure, it is just bank bashing. But when an institution makes $100 million per week profit, the average guy in the street thinks BS.
Good to see Steven's and crew back at work after 2 months off, doing what they're best at . . . nothing.
jparrie said:
We need strong banking in order to foster credit to promote growth and productivity.
CBA's profit were about $6.8 billion compared to its assets of about $670 billion. Rather large balance sheet which helps keep the seemingly large profits in perspective. 10% return on assets after tax - not unusually large and achievable by many businesses. Remember, it's a bank, so it's got to be worthwhile to be in business it's incredibly high risk.
The biggest stumbling blocks to businesses in Australia are not banks, but:
(a) poor management
(b) lack of quality control
(c) no idea at all about spending
(d) ridiculous govt taxes
Do you want me to go on? The govt loves bank bashing and my advice to you is - if the govt loves bank bashing, then something stinks. It's called a "red herring" I think.
Gino said:
And that's EXACTLY what a central bank should be doing - absolutely nothing. Stop interfering in the free market.
I'm not sure it is even possible to have a non-interferring central bank. It's kind of the root premise isn't it, that they create and manage the currency. That they loan the stuff into existence and charge interest on it at levels of their sole discretion means that they are interferring at a fundmental level in everything.
But I do wish they were on a permanent holiday. They could even print themselves up some nice fat bonuses for doing nothing for all I care. Oh wait, they already did that last year. Well maybe they could print up some nice new crisp plastic pieces of ____ <insert expletive here> and bribe a few foreigners into letting them do nothing, er I mean print currency for them as well. Damn! They've tried that a few times already as well.
I wonder if there's anything they haven't tried with that currency they create from nothing.
But I do wish they were on a permanent holiday. They could even print themselves up some nice fat bonuses for doing nothing for all I care. Oh wait, they already did that last year. Well maybe they could print up some nice new crisp plastic pieces of ____ <insert expletive here> and bribe a few foreigners into letting them do nothing, er I mean print currency for them as well. Damn! They've tried that a few times already as well.
I wonder if there's anything they haven't tried with that currency they create from nothing.
mmm....shiney! said:
Fine, set up a National bank. Let the privates fail if all its about is growth and productivity.
Assets, or claims on assets, that mainly belong to other people. Assets that have been created by the banks when credit was easy. So as their assets diminish so their profits as a percentage will grow because they have the opportunity to keep them high by not passing on interest rate cuts.
No, it's not, unless you create a position where your assets could theoretically diminish to a point where you go broke. And banks are now taking on business while making sure their exposure is far less risky. What a great business.
jparrie said:
I got no idea what you are talking about
mmm....shiney! said:
jparrie said:
Whaaaaaat????????? Lending lots and lots of money to people while hoping they pay it back over a 5, 10 or 25 year period while still managing to pay for all outgoings such as wages and taxes is not high risk?
What is a high risk business in your opinion then?
Smoothcriminal said:
Good thing I don't try to time the market for a living
mmm....shiney! said:
What's high risk about a securitised loan? Borrow at X, add your margin and collect Y. If they default, repossess. If lenders are that stupid to lend 100% equity then that's their problem, but even in that case the borrower is forced to buy insurance for the benefit of the bank.
Now people are paying down debt, the banks hate it, hence the grab for extra funds from not passing on cuts.
Don't start penalising because you can't properly evaluate risk. Banks have lent at very high LVR for far too long, hence the negative ratings watch by the ratings agencies. Now banks are building comfortable margins into their loans to counter existing risk and yet they still want that extra slice of the cake. F*ck them I say.