Jonasdundee
Member
I find those guys very hard to follow. A lot of rambling around, and the content could be condensed to much shorter times. There are a lot more to watch...
Expecting silver to drop to at least $22 AUD
- Thread starter openeyes
- Start date
I've looked into this closely.
50% of total yearly demand from industry is only approx. 500Moz - or a meager 7.XX Billion USD.
Investor demand could make up that shortfall overnight - A single wealthy individual could do the same.
The supply side is fragile and requires low demand for physical to keep prices low. Once the flood gates begin to open it wont be long before the physical market dries up completely. Industrial demand will pale into insignificance when this happens.
The size of the silver market that is key, accompanied by increasing investor demand.
What Alor said earlier was correct. Spot can fall even to $9, but there is no physical silver that can be bought below $15 per oz, literally speaking.
I just wonder what happens if the paper market breaks?
I just bought 2 kilobars. Is it cheap? Yes, it's cheaper than a couple months ago, but no where as cheap as it was 2 years ago.
My cheapest silver were 10 oz bars purchased in August 2018, at the equivalent of AUD 20.80 per oz (actual price paid for beautiful and shiny 10 oz bars, not spot price). It went as low as AUD 20 at that time.
But at that time, it was a great leap of faith as the sentiment against silver was extreme. In terms of sentiment, AUD 20.80/oz was expensive compared to today's price. Silver was considered useless in those days.
At that time I wouldn't have touched silver with a pole, would have been all in gold. To think you bought at 20/Oz and a year and a half later we are here at 24/Oz pains me. In that year and a half gold rose some $750/Oz or so. That is why I am so jaded by silver. I will never buy physical silver unless I can absolutely no longer afford gold. It's all unallocated for me thanks.
SilverDJ
Well-Known Member
Depends what your local currency is doing.
In terms of the USD price, yes, silver is about the cheapest it's been in a decade. But say in AUD, a few years back when the USD price was the same as it is now, silver in AUD was under AU$20 because our dollar was stronger.
If you are buying in local currency when you are really buying a hedge against your currency. The AUD gets stringer for some reason, then your silver drops in local value terms.
minimilled
Active Member
If silver drops to 22 AUD that only takes it to around what it was March last year. It could go lower, even a lot lower. But as people says will there be any around to buy?
It was under 20 AUD about 2015 I think. There was plentiful supply. ABC had a special on monster boxes of funnel back spiders and I think this was close to spot. It was a great deal. Premiums on ABCs own minted rounds were also low.
There was, believe it or not, 40kg of 1kg coins here for spot. They went for around $670 each. There is a difference now. I think the sentiment back then was “capitulation” after a drawn out price attrition from 2011. The sentiment now will be assisted by what is happening in the crypto world with young investors who have not been in a GFC style crisis themselves. If the sentiment in crypto turns sour, young blood may look to metals.
Gold hardly budged for years. It’s only this last year or so the big move happened. Silver has yet to have a nice double. All comes down to investor sentiment and right now there are some signals of demand picking up in retail physical, at least for some items.
Not a lot for sale here either.
It was under 20 AUD about 2015 I think. There was plentiful supply. ABC had a special on monster boxes of funnel back spiders and I think this was close to spot. It was a great deal. Premiums on ABCs own minted rounds were also low.
There was, believe it or not, 40kg of 1kg coins here for spot. They went for around $670 each. There is a difference now. I think the sentiment back then was “capitulation” after a drawn out price attrition from 2011. The sentiment now will be assisted by what is happening in the crypto world with young investors who have not been in a GFC style crisis themselves. If the sentiment in crypto turns sour, young blood may look to metals.
Gold hardly budged for years. It’s only this last year or so the big move happened. Silver has yet to have a nice double. All comes down to investor sentiment and right now there are some signals of demand picking up in retail physical, at least for some items.
Not a lot for sale here either.
Our goals are different. Your goal is maximum profit. For me, I am more scared of losing money - I also can't leave everything in cash as inflation will eat it away. If it makes more money than placing it in the bank, it's a bonus.
Me wifey had been unhappy last 2 days because gold fell. I explained to her, it's in USD and USD rose so I didn't lose anything. She doesn't care. Then I told her, I bought gold earlier between $1200-$1460, she cooled down. To her, half the money is hers. The culture is a little different in Singapore. Losing money has very serious consequences - for the guy.
To me, silver has a cost of production of $15 so as long as I buy close to the cost, it's impossible to lose on silver in the long run. Doesn't matter if it's stuck at $15-$17 for 10 years. If silver does a toodamoon scenario like in 2011, it's a bonus.
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Very different cultures. If I have money on the side my wife tells me to go buy gold. She understands that it is a tool and if we dont use it right it will get wasted. That's the sole reason I buy gold, because it preserves my wealth better than silver ever could.
Yes, people here typically invest only in properties or leave the money in the bank. The savvy ones will speculate in stocks. As you may know we don't have capital gains taxes or taxes on dividends so people get to keep everything.
My wife only knows about the gold. She says silver is worthless. As crazy as it sounds, I initially planned silver as a hedge for gold. Because silver had a utility and a much smaller above ground supply, so in case gold becomes replaced by crypto, I would still have silver.
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A supportive wife - An asset to any man.
I buy and hold silver with a 20-30 year view. I personally couldn't justify having most of my stack into gold with a long term view knowing the potential silver has to grossly outperform gold. There will likely be many opportunities to convert my silver to gold at a more favorable ratio over the next 20-30 years...If I believe it's a worthy move at the time.
SilverDJ
Well-Known Member
If I had to pick a metal to buy and stick in the ground for 30 years so that my kids could dig it up and inherit it, I'd chose gold. It's just has less risk over time.
Silver might very well spike big time, but it could then be back down just as quick as it rose.
I agree. Gold is for preserving wealth. Silver is just another gamble like stocks in my opinion.
Only if you ignore the fact that we have declining ore grades, year-on-year supply deficits, a mining ratio of 9:1, silver being consumed in industry and much less available above ground stockpiles than gold.
The US geological survey have already made their claims about silver becoming the first metal to go extinct. Although that headline/statement is grossly over-exaggerated (as they were analysing 'known silver reserves' and assessing economic feasibility at a certain price point), their report still reveals the finite supply of a strategic metal that we depend on (to a large degree) in many industries.
I'm pretty sure that most of the 12 largest silver mines in the world will have depleted deposits within the next 20 years at a continued rate of production - Some mines are less than 10 years!
Edit: It's worse than that. Fresnillo Mexico is estimated to deplete by 2024, Antamina Peru by 2027, Cannington Australia 2024.
https://www.mining-technology.com/features/feature-the-10-biggest-silver-mines-in-the-world/
This is a big deal, of course, because we need to replace those mines with new mines to keep up with current demand. But Demand is steadily increasing with our ever technological age, which means we will need more operational mines to meet future demand if the trend continues.
For these reasons and more, I favour silver by a large margin.
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Gold is for wealth preservation, I agree with this.
To me, silver isn't a gamble if procured near the cost of production because the chance of losing your capital in the medium term is zero. Yes, the price may fluctuate but it will return to $15. Buying silver above $20 usd, yes, it's a gamble.
I've never understood the interest on first majestic. It is really a gold + silver miner and if it can't earn a profit in Q4 2019 with record silver and gold prices, how can it survive?
I've the impression that many miners are being propped up by bank credit. Maybe a credit freeze will curtail some of them?
"In 2019, gross revenue by metal was silver (58%), gold (39%), lead (2%) and finally zinc (1%)."
"The group reported a net loss of $39.9 million, or 19 cents per share, for Q4,"
https://investorplace.com/2020/03/should-long-term-investors-buy-first-majestic-silver-ag-stock/