Exits, buys or holds - end of QE2

M

mickjohn

New Member
In anticipation of the end of QE2 and the fact that I am by all means novice.....

I have exited my modest positions and placed early buy orders at the very bottom (very low) of certain stocks (maybe i can get lucky). I am keeping cash on hand and hope to re-enter the market (ARD, CCU, CVE, KMC etc) at a lower price over the next month.

Can I get opinions or a gauge on what everyone else is doing? Cash is king? are you selling in expectation of a market correction come end of QE2 due to a mass selloff, do you think GFC2 is just around the corner or do you expect a rally in stocks based off positive results from the cessation of QE2?

I am referring specifically to the market reaction of the end of the Feds Quantitive easing program in the very near term.

Thanks in advance. I have already made my decision, just taking a peek at your thoughts.
 
Mostly in cash, mostly also a novice, I sold all mine over a month ago now. Held on to CCU, but wish I hadn't. Would like to see a massacre but whether it will happen or not I don't know.
 
I sold as well. Fortunately before the market got this bad. Ubank 6.5% looking very attractive now.

Shares so cheap. Ccu got to a shocking 70c today. Valued at 58c ( based on vector vest which I use as a rough guide)

still not convinced to jump back in yet. Think bernanke will come out with some stimulus but not qe3. Not sure when but hopefully after June.
Election 2012. They have funds till august.

Maybe wait for panic selling?
Energy stocks Looking like good value long term.
 
tthace said:
I sold as well. Fortunately before the market got this bad. Ubank 6.5% looking very attractive now.

Shares so cheap. Ccu got to a shocking 70c today. Valued at 58c ( based on vector vest which I use as a rough guide)

still not convinced to jump back in yet. Think bernanke will come out with some stimulus but not qe3. Not sure when but hopefully after June.
Election 2012. They have funds till august.

Maybe wait for panic selling?
Energy stocks Looking like good value long term.
Click to expand...
Any picks you want to share on the energy side?? I am looking sideways @ AGL...
 
Out of the ASX listed companies @ the moment.

Electronic digits are not in my control.

Building up fiat ( keeping powder dry).

May sink some into GOLD. ( & Honey)

My feelings ATM are...If you don't hold it you don't own it.
 
Thanks for your honesty gang!

I actually sold off all my personal shares approx 4-5 weeks ago in anticipation of lower entry points post QE2.

However in the event that I am completely wrong or that I miss judge my timing I have left all of my shares in my superfund still invested. Im still only young so I feel that I can afford to gamble with the amount of super i have allocated to the shares.

Best of luck to us all!
 
Im still in, been shuffling around reducing average share prices. Very hard work and nerve racking. Managing to stay afloat with a portfolio at -6% so it hurts, but I have faith in my stocks, and Im learning some great lessons.

I dont believe I'll loose it all - the stocks are still worth their assets and cash flows, so ill be right.

Ill see you guys bright an early on the other side of winter ;)
 
This perspective from Nadeem Walayat may be helpful.
He has a good track record and tackles the issue from a number of perspectives

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28641.html

There exists a tendency for people to over complicate investing and trading by deviating from the source by focusing on noise, and the source is not commentary concerning QE2, or QE3, or anything else that 98% of the media (both mainstream and alternative) focuses upon but rather the actual price on the charts, everything else is always only clear with the benefit of hindsight AFTER the price has moved. My strategy is simple, in a bull market the further the stock indices (Dow) deviates from its peak the more inclined I am to accumulate stocks or enter long trading positions (subject to buy triggers, always wait for buy triggers to increase probability of success because there is nothing worse than being right on trend but still losing because one was wrong on entry and stops!).
Click to expand...


if you're sick of commentaries:
CONCLUSION

My overall conclusion is towards a stock market low being pretty close if not imminent, following which the stock market can be expected to spend several weeks carving out a bottom into late June / early July in the form of a volatile trading range with an upward bias in preparation for the resumption of the bull market towards a new bull market high as the stock market attempts to play catchup after a more significant but still normal early summer correction. However, the big question remains for how long will the trading range extend ? At this point in time I am leaning towards a breakout to new highs taking place during mid August 2011, but it could extend well into September.
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I tend to agree Hobo-jo, and most predictions I've seen point to continuing price rises due to inflation. Perhaps the definition of 'bull' market is no longer applicable in this new world we're looking at.
 
thatguy: will let you know later after i buy it haha. Very hard to get order filled :( no one wants to let go any cheaper.

I like LNG but a bit worried because of the carbon tax. Hopefully the LNG sector gets exempted.



Big rally over in the US tonight so probably will be a good day on the asx later. Lets see if this bounce is short lived or will it last till end of June.

Could swing anywhere... my strategy is to have about half in shares and half in cash. If a dip comes i can take advantage of it.


We have been talking about a double dip since the first one... maybe if it does come it would be good as we can finally move forward.
 
Comodities will pick up the later half of the year, bull market still intact bacause the fundamentals have not changed. The same reason why my stocks were good to get into 6 months ago, is the same reason they are good to stay in now.
 
Hey Hobo-Jo, wat ya reckon about MNM? They just announced cap raising at 9.75cents Looks hell cheap after they slid all the way from 20++
 
tthace said:
I sold as well. Fortunately before the market got this bad. Ubank 6.5% looking very attractive now.

Shares so cheap. Ccu got to a shocking 70c today. Valued at 58c ( based on vector vest which I use as a rough guide)

still not convinced to jump back in yet. Think bernanke will come out with some stimulus but not qe3. Not sure when but hopefully after June.
Election 2012. They have funds till august.

Maybe wait for panic selling?
Energy stocks Looking like good value long term.
Click to expand...

With inflation at >3% and a tax rate on interest at approx 30% that leaves you with 2c in every dollar in your pocket on an annual basis. The cost of living is higher than the underlying inflation rate so I would suggest money in the bank although a nice safe feeling, you are actually going backwards.
 
Half of the first 1000$ interest earned is tax free starting July 1. Not suggesting to put it in Ubank forever. More like to park it until the market recovers.

At least it has 0 risk (Govt gurantee). Gold/silver could drop as well. Most important thing is to have cash at hand to take advantage of bad times.
 
hiho said:
tthace said:
I sold as well. Fortunately before the market got this bad. Ubank 6.5% looking very attractive now.

Shares so cheap. Ccu got to a shocking 70c today. Valued at 58c ( based on vector vest which I use as a rough guide)

still not convinced to jump back in yet. Think bernanke will come out with some stimulus but not qe3. Not sure when but hopefully after June.
Election 2012. They have funds till august.

Maybe wait for panic selling?
Energy stocks Looking like good value long term.
Click to expand...

With inflation at >3% and a tax rate on interest at approx 30% that leaves you with 2c in every dollar in your pocket on an annual basis. The cost of living is higher than the underlying inflation rate so I would suggest money in the bank although a nice safe feeling, you are actually going backwards.
Click to expand...

Ok, but if you want some diversification at the moment where is the best place to park your cash temporarily so you're ready to pounce on opportunities as they arise? Bonds? not likely. Shares? Ha. Property? Not liquid, and ha! At 6.5% you're probably about breaking even with inflation and tax, and you're ready to move quickly if something better comes along.
 
hobo-jo said:
tthace said:
Hey Hobo-Jo, wat ya reckon about MNM? They just announced cap raising at 9.75cents Looks hell cheap after they slid all the way from 20++
Click to expand...
It's been a while since I had a look. I haven't bought/sold since the SP was around 3-5c. I got burned by the options (sold a couple of days before trading stopped when they were out of the money and then the SP went from 4c to 30c LOL). When I was buying them it was when the market cap was cheap for their precious metal assets alone.
Click to expand...


yeahhh.. sucks to get burned from that... Least u got something from it. The last time i bought options it went to 0.

Apparently they spending 600k on their gold/silver exploration. Target is 300000-400000 tonnes at AU 2.5-3.5g/t and AG 55-70 g/t
 
1. Was contemplating 6 weeks ago transferring my high growth industry super into the cash option, before setting up a SMSF. Didn't, so am sucking lemons now.
2. Was contemplating selling 1kg PAMPs @ $AUD50. Didn't get there, so sucking lemons on that one. May be selling in the new financial year to help finance a renovation. Stay tuned.
3. Small fry in a few spec silver/gold miners. Holding.
4. Appreciating the taste of lemon more so now...
5. Confusion reigns.
 
Not good at all. ASX did not close above 4500. If no bounce tomorrow or more bad news from europe/USA, looking at possibly 4250.

Very happy i sold out now. Everything i wanted is at least 25% cheaper.
 
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