Doomsdayers....it's going to get worse....for gold

Interesting, and I like to read counter-point articles - they challenge my thinking and stop me from becoming too entrenched.

What is strange about that article is that WB invested heavily in silver a few years' back - now, he's since sold his investment off and declared he no longer holds bullion, but he sold before the price rocketed. Thus, while I read everything he says with considerable respect, I'm less confident in his ability to predict PM prices.

Secondly, while Morgan Stanley talks down gold, they are net buyers for their accounts and their 'house' holdings. So they are saying one thing but doing another.

Lastly, while this is a useful counter-point, one would have to compare WB ad MS against several central banks looking to increase gold stocks, the Chinese buying like crazy, while COMEX registered supplies dwindle. If it is only a 'barbarous relic' with no intrinsic value, why won't the US give the Germans their gold back?

The market can remain irrational for longer than I can remain solvent and 'fundamentals' can be remarkably ephemeral and penetrate poorly, but time's on my side and eventually I believe they will prevail. And when fiat goes down (and devaluation and debasement is western government policy) I'd rather be left holding some shiny metal than unbacked currency.
 
rising interest rates aren't necessarily bad for gold. in the last bull market interest rates were rising except for the period when gold went down in the mid seventies. it seems likely that fed will want to keep real rates low and will tend to be behind the curve if and when inflation expectations get going so as not to stall any recovery.
 
Warren Buffet has always said it is better to invest in profitable businesses than gold.

What's new about this ?


He has also always said the chief enemy to investing is inflation.
 
Credit Crunch said:
Maybe ole Warren Buffett is just still shitty that he had to sell his 130 million troy ounce silver stash. Warehouses of physical he had via berkshire hathaway would have netted him a few $ billion if he could have hung onto it for a few more years.
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It has been too many years ago for me to remember the details clearly. Supposedly, WB was in legal trouble with the government (SEC?). WB sells his silver and the legal troubles disappear.
 
Soros had a strong point when he called gold "the ultimate bubble".

Still, the "gold rush" is continuing. China is still accumulating. And others are hoarding the physical metal as well.

No-one knows for sure what will happen.
Suppose we will experience a severe currency crisis. You will want to own gold then.

This might be a temporary dip, but it's also highly likely it will drop below 1,000 $, destroying the hope of many who still believe it will rise.

Don't forget the tight relationship between: gold - US dollar - oil

Oil goes up, gold goes up...
Dollar goes down, gold goes up...

I don't think the dollar will continue to go up for long and I don't think the petrodollar system will survive for very long, nor will we have the same amount of oil to available (it will deplete).

So, considering factors like: euro crisis, the US dollar, Chinese economy, BRICs, oil, gold... I think gold's future is still quite shiny.

Gold will still be gold in 10, 20, 50 years from now. Regardless of today's price.

Gold could still be a great long term investment.

I am no permabull, I am no permabear. I'm just a realist.
 
Gold is a market infested by government and its institutionals. It's has an ever increasing stockpile. I never visited it. Not a single gram. I consider it remarkable that some people claim that they wanna hedge against inflation along gold. It's like trying to escape the hammer in the left hand by running into the second hammer in the right hand, haha.
 
The 'stockpile' is small - the entire above-ground supply would fit in a cube about the size of a tennis court.

In no year since the birth of Christ has the growth in available gold been more than 5%.

The 'stockpile' growth of humans to buy the gold, and the dollars they'd use to buy it, both far exceed the expansion in gold supply.

Lastly, the costs of mining gold mean if the price falls sufficiently, the expansion in supply stops.


Now, I'm a fan of silver too, but gold has significant merits. As for being a manipulated market - I agree central banks aren't hoarding silver but that's because there isn't the silver to hoard. Silver is behaving in an even more illogical and manipulated manner - if the gold price price is being suppressed, silver's must be evev moreso. Less of it to go around, more industrial uses, and yet it trades at less than a fourth of its rarity compared to gold.
 
"In no year since the birth of Christ has the growth in available gold been more than 5%."


How do they know?
 
I read a paper on it; I will see if I can find it.

It was speculative but looked at technological abilities of the time and the yield on known deposits mined at the time, as well as the relative value of gold (as a marker of scarcity) and the known amounts of the more recent past.

There can't be more gold in the past than there is now. And, if there was, Pirocco doesn't have to worry about an ever-increasing stockpile.
 
I have no real reliable data but I would guess that the time frame of the late 1840s to the late 1860s would be some sort of peak.

US followed by Australia and then Sth Africa would be the source of most of it. No idea on market price of the stuff..
 
What is gold, anyway?

And for that mater what is silver?

Why do I make such a big deal of it?

Lose sleep, panic. Why?
 
Old Codger said:
"In no year since the birth of Christ has the growth in available gold been more than 5%."


How do they know?
Click to expand...

I'm a theologian and that was covered in class.
 
sammysilver said:
Old Codger said:
"In no year since the birth of Christ has the growth in available gold been more than 5%."


How do they know?
Click to expand...

I'm a theologian and that was covered in class.
Click to expand...
So the Vatican DOES control everything !

:D
 
Central Bank gold buying has amounted to a fairly small portion of total gold demand over the years.

Gold supply vs demand isn't what some people here think...supply has been increasing while demand dropping:

http://www.kitco.com/charts/CPM_charts.html

https://www.gold.org/investment/statistics/demand_and_supply_statistics/

http://goldresearcher.com/gold-supply-demand-trends/


Also, peak gold is still another decade or more away. That means we will see greater supply till peak gold is hit. Gold demand will have to go through the roof, which it isn't and won't any time soon,in order that we see a squeeze and then price jumps reflecting this.
 
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