Doomsday Daydreaming & Opportunity Costs

A

Agnostic

Active Member
Silver Stacker
Like many people I have expected some sort of social upheaval or collapse for a long time now...

...but it hasn't happened.

It may never happen.

Fortunately I have a split personality, and the optimist in me worked hard, obtained career advancement, invested and went into business.

If I had focussed excessively on negative issues, I would not have invested the time and money and taken business risks. But I did invest, and it has paid off.

Every dollar placed into metal is no longer actively working.

Sure it is preserved, but there is no income and the capital value does fluctuate in dollar terms.

Stackers will pay the opportunity cost of foregone income from interest, dividends or business profit.

Of course there is a certain satisfaction in the moral superiority of being prepared above the vast masses of the unaware.

But unless you are totally self sufficient or have a highly developed barter system, you will still need cash for food, amenities and surprises like medical costs.

Australia is one of the best countries in the world, collapse or no collapse.

Why have a deathwish for our economy?

Why not get to work, build a business and make a go of it in the here and now?

OK I'm rambling...

Agnostic
 
Make the most of the time and place you are in, as much as is in your power to do so.
Expect the best, and prepare for the worst. To have and not need is better than to need and not have.
There will always be those who cultivate chaos for their own benefit.
 
The reason people have a fantasy about living in a mad max/shtf world, is because they have never had to live in one.
 
Icon said:
The reason people have a fantasy about living in a mad max/shtf world, is because they have never had to live in one.
Click to expand...

Another SHTF movie. In this one the only accepted currency is USD.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChM2icbWo9w[/youtube]
 
Agnostic said:
Like many people I have expected some sort of social upheaval or collapse for a long time

Australia is one of the best countries in the world, collapse or no collapse.

Why have a deathwish for our economy?

Why not get to work, build a business and make a go of it in the here and now?

Agnostic
Click to expand...

Agnostic the problem is that governments and big business are locked together in this crony capitalism that dominates the west including Australia, makes it very hard for the average Joe to build a business and make a go of it. I can tell you from personal experience that building a business was a far simpler deal 15 years ago than it is today. Regulations have exploded, costs of doing business has ballooned and it makes many viable businesses unsustainable. These regulations, the monopolies of big business and excessive taxes mean that big business is favoured and the small guy is squeezed out. The government worker, or public servant is the new business executive. That is the problem and it's getting worse each day. I will give you a great example I heard yesterday. 50 years ago a young guy may decide to work part time filling cars at a petrol station. As all petrol stations (gas stations) also employed mechanics so slowly he started to learn about cars and repairing them, soon he became an apprentice and then a mechanic. Then he opened his own petrol station and workshop. Then a string of them. Today there are no jobs filling cars and petrol stations are mostly run by supermarkets and have no workshop. So there is no possibility that a young man could even start along this track. He is squeezed out before he can even start.

Everything today favours the big corporation and we have become slaves to them and their government partners. So I don't agree that the only problem is lack of motivation. People are disillusioned and even those who have built small business are being squeezed out every day as this economy moves from free market to a fascist state where government and it's overwhelming regulations and taxes supports big business at the expense of you and me, unless you work for the government !
 
Why not get to work, build a business and make a go of it in the here and now?
Click to expand...

I'd just like to add. Build a business that can survive a massive Australian economic downturn.
 
Ronnie 666 said:
Agnostic said:
Like many people I have expected some sort of social upheaval or collapse for a long time

Australia is one of the best countries in the world, collapse or no collapse.

Why have a deathwish for our economy?

Why not get to work, build a business and make a go of it in the here and now?

Agnostic
Click to expand...

Agnostic the problem is that governments and big business are locked together in this crony capitalism that dominates the west including Australia, makes it very hard for the average Joe to build a business and make a go of it. I can tell you from personal experience that building a business was a far simpler deal 15 years ago than it is today. Regulations have exploded, costs of doing business has ballooned and it makes many viable businesses unsustainable. These regulations, the monopolies of big business and excessive taxes mean that big business is favoured and the small guy is squeezed out. The government worker, or public servant is the new business executive. That is the problem and it's getting worse each day. I will give you a great example I heard yesterday. 50 years ago a young guy may decide to work part time filling cars at a petrol station. As all petrol stations (gas stations) also employed mechanics so slowly he started to learn about cars and repairing them, soon he became an apprentice and then a mechanic. Then he opened his own petrol station and workshop. Then a string of them. Today there are no jobs filling cars and petrol stations are mostly run by supermarkets and have no workshop. So there is no possibility that a young man could even start along this track. He is squeezed out before he can even start.

Everything today favours the big corporation and we have become slaves to them and their government partners. So I don't agree that the only problem is lack of motivation. People are disillusioned and even those who have built small business are being squeezed out every day as this economy moves from free market to a fascist state where government and it's overwhelming regulations and taxes supports big business at the expense of you and me, unless you work for the government !
Click to expand...

Is there not much bigger opportunity to open a workshop nowadays as there is no longer one beside every service station in town? A buddy of mine opened up a workshop a few years ago and is killing it despite being the only mechanic there.
 
Probably making a killing as he is the only one around. How many independent small business mechanics are there now ? The guy just out of school cannot get experience and on the job training like he did previously. Universities and technical training centres today are all about teaching what you dont need to know and missing the basics of what you do need. I can tell you that for most things from my mechanic,to my dentist they must be at least 45 years old. Fifty is better. Obviously that does not mean you are not going to get a great mechanic or dentist aged 25 or 30, of course you can but they are more rare animals (like a 1930 Penny).
 
Ronnie 666 said:
Agnostic the problem is that governments and big business are locked together in this crony capitalism that dominates the west including Australia, makes it very hard for the average Joe to build a business and make a go of it. I can tell you from personal experience that building a business was a far simpler deal 15 years ago than it is today. Regulations have exploded, costs of doing business has ballooned and it makes many viable businesses unsustainable. These regulations, the monopolies of big business and excessive taxes mean that big business is favoured and the small guy is squeezed out. The government worker, or public servant is the new business executive. That is the problem and it's getting worse each day. I will give you a great example I heard yesterday. 50 years ago a young guy may decide to work part time filling cars at a petrol station. As all petrol stations (gas stations) also employed mechanics so slowly he started to learn about cars and repairing them, soon he became an apprentice and then a mechanic. Then he opened his own petrol station and workshop. Then a string of them. Today there are no jobs filling cars and petrol stations are mostly run by supermarkets and have no workshop. So there is no possibility that a young man could even start along this track. He is squeezed out before he can even start.

Everything today favours the big corporation and we have become slaves to them and their government partners. So I don't agree that the only problem is lack of motivation. People are disillusioned and even those who have built small business are being squeezed out every day as this economy moves from free market to a fascist state where government and it's overwhelming regulations and taxes supports big business at the expense of you and me, unless you work for the government !
Click to expand...

Ronnie I agree there is a truth in what you are saying. There is much more red tap involved in business these days. However as some opportunities fade, others rise. The young person can no longer learn mechanics on the job but he may well start troubleshooting friends computers and build a service business from there.

My main point is that money placed into metal is no longer available for alternative investments which may generate income. A quick brainstorm would come up with:
. Bank deposits earning interest (yes there is a bail-in risk and interest doesn't keep up with inflation)
. Shares earning dividends (yes I know the market as a whole is overvalued but there are still selected opportunities)
. Real estate earning rent
. Business earning profits

And if you are an employee, you can often increase your earnings by completing further studies to gain qualifications, volunteering time to learn new skills, or getting a second job.

There are still plenty of business opportunities, but I realise its not for everyone. Still, I would have thought that many people who are self-aware enough to be stacking, would have the capacity to go into business, at least in a small way.

Once you have a business, then there are many more alternatives to putting money into metal. Surplus funds can be used to take on more employees, for marketing, product or service development, new office equipment, new machinery, research and development, etc.

Actually, once you are in business, so many more opportunities open up that are not visible or realisable as an employee.

But that is an aside, my main focus of this post is how an excessive focus on the end of the world can cause us to lose focus on the present and its opportunities.

Cheers,

Agnostic
 
What is an even better idea is to own the property(ies) that house(s) your Business(es) and stack bullion to hedge both your business(s) and your REAL ESTATE :P

Just flew back from Sydney after a weekend business conference. At 61 I'm having a ball with another new business that is about to take off. This has the potential to extend my working life another 15 years :D

Kind Regards
non recourse
 
nonrecourse said:
What is an even better idea is to own the property(ies) that house(s) your Business(es) and stack bullion to hedge both your business(s) and your REAL ESTATE :P

Just flew back from Sydney after a weekend business conference. At 61 I'm having a ball with another new business that is about to take off. This has the potential to extend my working life another 15 years :D

Kind Regards
non recourse
Click to expand...

Nice. Just curious NR, how many hours a week would you say you work? I'm still a long way from potential retirement but I've always thought, while I don't want to work full-time forever, and in fact don't right now (I average around 9 months a year full-time working), I couldn't imagine ever just giving up work completely even at retirement age. How people fill in the days not working at all I can't imagine. Do you ever intend to fully retire or just keep on charging forward? Good luck with the venture.
 
Ronnie 666 said:
Probably making a killing as he is the only one around. How many independent small business mechanics are there now ? The guy just out of school cannot get experience and on the job training like he did previously. Universities and technical training centres today are all about teaching what you dont need to know and missing the basics of what you do need. I can tell you that for most things from my mechanic,to my dentist they must be at least 45 years old. Fifty is better. Obviously that does not mean you are not going to get a great mechanic or dentist aged 25 or 30, of course you can but they are more rare animals (like a 1930 Penny).
Click to expand...

I'm not really disagreeing with you - as Agnostic mentioned, red tape has gone mad. I know a lot of people that have set up their own workshops actually - some had a business mindset and have done well, others did well before 2008 when you basically couldn't start a bad business, but went under not long after that when times got tougher.

I guess my point was that people fail to see the opportunities that are brought about by a changing world. I managed to work for a scientific research organisation where every other person I worked with had a degree. I was told that I'd never work there and yet I did and was offered many promotions while working for them. I was told that I'd never get a job in my industry in Canada without a degree and was offered a week or so after arriving. If you find your own way of acquiring knowledge and experience, you become something different. Not better or worse, just different - the benefit being that you stand out from the crowd. Of course you need to be careful because when you question the route that others took they tend to get a bit defensive offensive.

Horses for courses.
 
I got a similar story. Once I had good enough uni marks to get recommended for a job, it only took 6 months to display a hard work ethic and display my self taught skills before being hired permanently. Once I had my foot in the door, the piece of paper from uni was optional, so I put it on hold and focused on the job. Now I run training courses and teach the people with degrees how to use specific software and automate processes. The high price of uni is only a good deal before you get your foot in the door. After that, it's all about showing the company what you're worth. Experience always beats paper.
 
smk762 said:
I got a similar story. Once I had good enough uni marks to get recommended for a job, it only took 6 months to display a hard work ethic and display my self taught skills before being hired permanently. Once I had my foot in the door, the piece of paper from uni was optional, so I put it on hold and focused on the job. Now I run training courses and teach the people with degrees how to use specific software and automate processes. The high price of uni is only a good deal before you get your foot in the door. After that, it's all about showing the company what you're worth. Experience always beats paper.
Click to expand...

I've been an employer most of my working life. All being equal I will hire the guy with the paper. He is not the quitter.
 
I've worked with a few "qualified" slackers that stop learning once they get their degree. All things being equal, I agree with your assessment. No degree means you have to prove yourself in other ways. The cost of a degree is rising, and was already a struggle for mature age students with dependents. I burnt out after 18 months of full-time work and uni. My intention is to finish when I need to change jobs and have enough saved to focus on good marks in the final years instead of stressing over how to pay the bills. Right now I work full-time and run a business after hours. Without steady work, I wouldn't be able to grow the business. Evaluating the cost of uni in terms of time, dollars and potential current earnings, it s not a good investment for me at this stage.
 
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