Do semi-numismatics hold value better?

P

pug

Member
With all the complaints lately about how high premiums are I've got this theory, and perhaps an expert could confirm this:

Let's say that a limited edition of <1 million silver bullion coins was sold to the public when silver was >$35 oz.
But then the following year silver drops to <$25 an oz. The buyers of that limited edition are not very likely to part with it unless they can get what they paid for it or more. Some buyers might sell if they absolutely must raise cash. It might drop a bit at the LCS, but not nearly what generic bullion will.

They've bought it for the idea that it will only ever increase in rarity going forward (some coins will become lost, damaged, or maybe even melted back to bullion). They expect the price to increase by this rarity or by the increase in bullion value.

Is it likely then to expect that a 2012 Kook or Canadian Wildlife will remain close to the price that silver spot was at the time it was minted. Also that premiums on these coins are only going to increase dramatically as current spot price falls?

How far off am I on this? Anyone?
 
Of course. Who would sell them close to spot? Doesnt make sense at all.
Do let me know if anyone want to sell them close to spot.
Unless you are desperate for cash out.
 
Time and price are important. Let a year go by and silver is sitting at $20, some will sell for what they can get. Others will hold forever.
 
Pug,

If more would have followed this method/train of thought they wouldn't be puking in buckets at this point. For someone who started with the usual bang for their buck mentality and having it enforced by listening to Stella actually :) I now wouldn't go near a full-on bullion bar or coin again in a million years.

I gladly pay up 10-20% in premium as a coin collector not stacker and sleep soundly at night. I think you get better at seeing the potential collectibles over time too. There are bargains to be had for sure.
 
Spot drops, premiums rise....that's to be expected on many items.

I have however, found recently on eBay, some good deals on some coins.
 
I guess you could say semi numismatics like a kind of hedge on the bullion price if you think spot is a bit toppy ??

I think your on to something pug
 
Yes, semi numis are the way to go. The premiums you pay up front will increase in magnitudes far beyond what regular generic or regular bullion coins can offer. I bought 2009 kooks a tad bit over spot moreso than an eagle or maple in that year and see what the comparison now is. Pandas, kooks and lunars (and some deviation of koalas) are the way to go.

Do keep in mind that when I do purchase these types of coins I do hours of research on them, history, mintage, and of course I do try to find the best deals.
 
I think many collectors like interesting and attractive coins. Some collectors like me are further intrigued by low mintage coins. To me, interesting and low mintage would definitely not describe coins like the American Eagle and Canadian maple leaf which basically remain exactly the same every year except for the tiny date change...that's why I own very few of these. I did buy a couple of sets of the 2013 West Point 2 coin set because these are not typical and they are interesting.

I also try to do enough research on coins I am interested in buying to gauge whether or not they are a fair investment (premiums move up above average) but I find it quite difficult to really know with any degree of certainty if a coin will be a hit or a miss. I have picked wrong more times than right I think....but then again, I am new to this and the market is in a big downfall and only true full numismatic coins aren't really affected by the tailspinning PM market it looks like.
 
mmissinglink said:
I think many collectors like interesting and attractive coins. Some collectors like me are further intrigued by low mintage coins. To me, interesting and low mintage would definitely not describe coins like the American Eagle and Canadian maple leaf which basically remain exactly the same every year except for the tiny date change...that's why I own very few of these. I did buy a couple of sets of the 2013 West Point 2 coin set because these are not typical and they are interesting.

I also try to do enough research on coins I am interested in buying to gauge whether or not they are a fair investment (premiums move up above average) but I find it quite difficult to really know with any degree of certainty if a coin will be a hit or a miss. I have picked wrong more times than right I think....but then again, I am new to this and the market is in a big downfall and only true full numismatic coins aren't really affected by the tailspinning PM market it looks like.
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This is another point I forgot to add that you reminded me of. It's also a hobby as I am also a collector. The fact that I'm merging my hobby with a tangible asset like silver is just a bonus. Hobby+investment = a happy couple :)
 
silverlover said:
This is another point I forgot to add that you reminded me of. It's also a hobby as I am also a collector. The fact that I'm merging my hobby with a tangible asset like silver is just a bonus. Hobby+investment = a happy couple :)
Click to expand...


Right, I think that's how I would define myself. I am not a true stacker per se....I think it's foolish, me just awakening in the Fall of 2012 to PM's as a hedge or investment, to buy just any old non-interesting and non-collectible bullion in the hopes that "metal prices will shoot through the roof as the dollar collapses" rhetoric. I have purchased very few pure bullion (whether rounds or bars). On the other hand, I have bought very few coins that are not 90% or better silver, gold, platinum, or palladium. That means that I am really not a pure hobbyist coin collector either.

The fact that my financial means are very limited compared to lots of people I have come across in forums like this may also have a role as to why I am treading the line between collector and stacker.
 
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