DEVILS ADVOCATE - Shake my silver foundation please

Clawhammer said:
Lunartic said:
I would invite anyone here to poke holes or propose alternatives for my reasoning
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Proof of the pudding is in the eating. If it hasn't happened by now...it'll never happen.

Here we are 5 years (that's half a decade) since the GFC that should've started the cards tumbling and nothing has changed.

TPTB can keep this charade going for decades into a long slow wind down like the Japanese economy.

You'll be saving and investing in PM's but missing out on the good things in life.

The crunch will come eventually...but you'll be too old to enjoy the wealth and economic security a bubble in PM's will bring.
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Or you could keep your money in super and let those so called gurus who mange super loose about 36% like they did in GFC 2008.

Hammer, you're a common sense guy but there's plenty of blokes who are shite scared about what to do with their savings and...super.

I reckon, if a bloke can keep a bit of silver and gold plus keep a bit of cash in say a CBA Netbank saver account (They pay good interest and will pay more if you haggle with them).

Shares with dividends.

For a fair while now, I've suggested CBA, Woolworths and Telstra as defensive stocks that provide a pretty good dividend. Having said that, I've got a "VB stubby" feeling that we might see another stock market correction, similar to 2008 but worse.
Investment in Europe could faulter big time.

Anyway, what you say is correct, this is a long term play for metals but when the tide turns it could be like standing on the pier at Broome.

The tide will change but the depth of water is worrying.

Cheers and I hope your patience may pay off this year. :)

H
 
i agree whole heartedly holdfast.

what i proposed was an anti-contrariain view... its what the OP asked for. I hope to God I'm wrong.
 
Holdfast said:
April 2011 an oz of silver would buy about 40 litres of unleaded.

April 2013 an oz of silver will buy you about 20 litres of unleaded and one Balfours pie. :)
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Silver is gold's bipolar brother

ounce of gold april 2011 would buy you roughly the same amount of unleaded now.

ounce of gold in 2005 would buy about 400 litres, ounce of gold now would buy 1000+ litres
 
Getting back on track.....You have to keep an open mind here....very, very, very few analysts accurately predicted the rise of the U.S. dollar and stockmarket at the moment and gave the actual reason...The newspaper analysts simply put it down to strengthening of the U.S. economy and stability of Europe which is downright wrong. We are witnessing the largest capital flows ever rushing from high to low risk. Keep in mind it is all relative. Low risk today may be high risk in a few years. There is no market in the world bigger than the U.S. dollar. The gold and silver markets are tiny in comparison and offer no return. They are not a hedge against inflation, only government mismanagement. For large investors there is really only the choice of the stockmarket which represents private debt and the U.S. dollar. There will come a time in a few years when it will be the turn of the mighty U.S. dollar to come under pressure and then gold and silver will make the big moves as it will be obvious to one and all that this is the end game.

As for gold standards etc., it will never happen. As for hyperinflation...no way. We all forget who the governments represent and support and that is the banks and they will want their pound of flesh. The economy will fail a long time before hyperinflation takes hold and gold and silver will offer zero protection. It would be the absolute worst scenario.

It is now the time for patience. If silver breaks the $26 mark, get ready for $20.

Clear your heads of the manipulation, the bullion banks, the naked shorts, government interference, gold standards, to da moon, etc.....gold and silver is simply another market and there will be a time to enter and a time to exit...the fact is that even sea shells could be used effectively as a currency if it was controlled properly but the fact is that you can't trust politicians so even the shells would fail.....as is true with gold.
 
tolly_67 said:
\As for gold standards etc., it will never happen.\
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Maybe not in the Old World. But what about China? They are reportedly accumulating gold hand over fist. If this is so they may intend to back their currency with gold. There has to be a good reason for central banks to be buying so much gold, clearly they think that it has an important future.
 
I don't care for hyperinflation, but even mild inflation is highway robbery.

We all work hard for our currency (generalization I know), but just because some c@nt somewhere decides that printing more money will solve all their problems, it produces inflation. If this results in something besides inflation, let me know. <<<-- This comes back to my original question.
 
tolly_67 said:
Getting back on track.....You have to keep an open mind here....very, very, very few analysts accurately predicted the rise of the U.S. dollar and stockmarket at the moment and gave the actual reason...The newspaper analysts simply put it down to strengthening of the U.S. economy and stability of Europe which is downright wrong. We are witnessing the largest capital flows ever rushing from high to low risk. Keep in mind it is all relative. Low risk today may be high risk in a few years. There is no market in the world bigger than the U.S. dollar. The gold and silver markets are tiny in comparison and offer no return. They are not a hedge against inflation, only government mismanagement. For large investors there is really only the choice of the stockmarket which represents private debt and the U.S. dollar. There will come a time in a few years when it will be the turn of the mighty U.S. dollar to come under pressure and then gold and silver will make the big moves as it will be obvious to one and all that this is the end game.

As for gold standards etc., it will never happen. As for hyperinflation...no way. We all forget who the governments represent and support and that is the banks and they will want their pound of flesh. The economy will fail a long time before hyperinflation takes hold and gold and silver will offer zero protection. It would be the absolute worst scenario.

It is now the time for patience. If silver breaks the $26 mark, get ready for $20.

Clear your heads of the manipulation, the bullion banks, the naked shorts, government interference, gold standards, to da moon, etc.....gold and silver is simply another market and there will be a time to enter and a time to exit...the fact is that even sea shells could be used effectively as a currency if it was controlled properly but the fact is that you can't trust politicians so even the shells would fail.....as is true with gold.
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Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
 
can you eat 1 oz round? I guess no!
But one can eat fiat ... literally ...


and, I remember Saint Bernanke said that gold is relic ... the same applies to silver
 
Clawhammer said:
Lunartic said:
I would invite anyone here to poke holes or propose alternatives for my reasoning
Click to expand...

Proof of the pudding is in the eating. If it hasn't happened by now...it'll never happen.

Here we are 5 years (that's half a decade) since the GFC that should've started the cards tumbling and nothing has changed.

TPTB can keep this charade going for decades into a long slow wind down like the Japanese economy.

You'll be saving and investing in PM's but missing out on the good things in life.

The crunch will come eventually...but you'll be too old to enjoy the wealth and economic security a bubble in PM's will bring.
Click to expand...

Well thats why you never put all your eggs into one basket. Stacking PMs should come after everything else is taken care of.
 
Lunartic said:
I would invite anyone here to poke holes or propose alternatives for my reasoning.
Click to expand...

Well I agree with your reasoning but here is one idea to think about that meets your request:

In a deleveraging economy where debts are being paid down or written off, if the central bank printing new money simply replaces the money being destroyed, the net money supply is not increasing so may not result in inflation - at least for a while


You should not only view PMs as a hedge against inflation but also as a hedge against currency devaluation
 
Here we are 5 years (that's half a decade) since the GFC that should've started the cards tumbling and nothing has changed.
Clawhammer, I want to live in your world, where no default of Greece and Cyprus happened ... where BoJ never intended to print in order to really hurt my purchasing power ... Where gold trading at 1k ...
 
RetardedMonkey said:
What is the price of silver now, and this time last year?
What is the price of milk now, and this time last year?

I think you'll find your purchasing power has decreased.
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Too short a time-scale. Silver (and even gold) is volatile. But in the long term PMs will average out and protect buying power. What's that thing always quoted about how the average Roman Legionary's pay was 1 silver coin per day? Which roughly equates with minimum wage in the modern world - you can still buy bread and milk and some basic groceries for an ounce of silver - 2000 years later!


Holdfast said:
April 2011 an oz of silver would buy about 40 litres of unleaded.

April 2013 an oz of silver will buy you about 20 litres of unleaded and one Balfours pie. :)
Click to expand...

That's a bad comparison. You can buy less petrol because we're running out of oil. Even with inflation adjusted fiat you buy less petrol.
 
boston said:
AuAussie said:
You can buy less petrol because we're running out of oil.
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No we are not.
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If a resource isn't renewable then wouldn't you argue that you are always 'running out'?

It's not a glass half full scenario, every litre you pull out of the ground stays out and is consumed in one way or another.
 
Asylum said:
boston said:
AuAussie said:
You can buy less petrol because we're running out of oil.
Click to expand...
No we are not.
Click to expand...


If a resource isn't renewable then wouldn't you argue that you are always 'running out'?

It's not a glass half full scenario, every litre you pull out of the ground stays out and is consumed in one way or another.
Click to expand...
In one of the USA's state of the nation addresses back in the early 1970's, the president of the time stated that the NW slope of Alaska was the biggest oil deposit on the face of the earth and the USA would be independent for centuries on this deposit alone. It was listed in the American Geological Survey of that year, but quickly removed thereafter for strategic reasons. It is currently being developed refer Gull Island.

The 2nd biggest deposit in the world is the Bakkan (spelling?) oil field of North and South Dakota, which is also being developed currently.

Believe it or not, the Gulf of Mexico also has more oil than Saudi Arabia as evidenced by the high pressure and recent debacle over there.

The Russians also have their own large supply of oil, reputed to also be larger than Saudi Arabia, taken from a depth circa 12,000 mtr giving credence to oil of abiogenic origin and not plant/organic matter sourced.

Australia also has untapped strategic reserves for 200 years, using early 1990's consumption as a datum. One of Australia's top geologists, whom I worked with, told me this.

It takes a bit of sleuthing to find this information, but it is out there. So when I hear that we are running out of oil, notably in the MSM to justify high prices, I tend to not believe it.
 
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